Transcript ASM_jcherry

Developing Human System
Modules for Climate Models
Jessie Cherry,
IARC/ARSC@UAF
Typical treatment of
human/resource dimensions
• Offline model runs
• Use of projections and scenarios
• Qualitative characterizations of the future
Climate Change Planning
Walsh & Chapman:
PRISM downscaled
multi-model projections
of temperature and
precipitation for AK
under various scenarios
of Greenhouse Gas
emissions
Problems with this approach
• Creates a strong disconnect between
the physical modeling community and
the climate impacts community
• Makes it more difficult to provide
decision support to stakeholders
• Could be missing important feedbacks
between human agents and the climate
system
Approaches to CCIAV
IPCC, 2007
Integrated Assessment
Definition: any model which combines
scientific and socio-economic aspects of
climate change primarily for the purpose
of assessing policy options for climate
change control (Kelly & Kolstad, 1998)
Integrated Assessment Modeling
McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005
Integrated Assessment Models
McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005
Characterizing the Future
IPCC, 2007
Proposal:
Code Human System Modules directly
into a new Arctic System Model to make
it truly ‘next generation’ and ‘system’
Example of
Human
System
Module
Goal is to be model
independent; work
with CCSM and
other models/
couplers
Cherry
Some Human Dimensions in
the Arctic :
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Oil and Gas Recovery (& spill transport)
Freshwater Supply
Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geo)
Commercial, Subsistence, & Sport Fishing
Infrastructure
Coastal Erosion
Subsistence Harvest of Furbearers, Caribou
Marine Transport
Decision-Support
• What is that?
• Turban defines it as "an interactive, flexible,
and adaptable computer-based information
system, especially developed for supporting
the solution of a non-structured management
problem for improved decision making. It
utilizes data, provides an easy-to-use
interface, and allows for the decision maker's
own insights.” (Wikipedia)
Example of Climate-Related
Decision Support
https://rsgis.crrel.usace.army.mil/aedis/
Goals of a Pilot Project
• Create one or more model-independent
modules for socio-economic decisionmaking
• Test in AK, but should have international
applications at least across pan-Arctic
• Create cutting edge model, i.e. one that
includes human dimension directly
Interactions between Module
components/Climate model
• Need not occur at every model time step
• One or two way coupling may be
appropriate depending on the system
BSIERP Vertically Integrated models
BSIERP
Economic/ecological
model
NPZ-B-D
Lower trophic
level
ROMS
Physical
Oceanography
Climate scenarios
BEST
Nested models
FEAST Higher trophic
level model
Infrastructure
Impact of Climate Change on
Infrastructure study done for Alaska by
Peter Larsen and collaborators
Flow Chart of Model Processes
Depr.
Matrix
Others
DRM
UAF GI
DCCED
Climate
Projections
APID
Denali
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
NCAR
Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas
DNR
Infrastructure Type
Agriculture
Airport
Bridges
Courts
Defense
Emergency Services
Energy
Grid
Harbor
Hospital
Law Enforcement
Misc. Building (govt)
Misc. Building (health)
Pipeline
Railroad
Roads
School
Sewer
Telecommunications
Telephone Line
Water
Replacement Cost
N/A
$
5,664,812
$
10,000
$
16,150,618
$
305,441
$
467,110
$
31,570
$
100,000
$
162,050
$
44,772,750
$
3,917,245
$
1,030,578
$
1,631,781
$
32,225,000
$
2,795,717
$
3,000,000
$
2,486,167
$
30,000,000
$
299,576
$
50,000
$
5,000,000
Units
N/A
Whole
Per foot
Whole
Whole
Whole
Whole
Per mile
Whole
Whole
Whole
Whole
Whole
Per mile
Per mile
Per mile
Whole
Whole
Whole
Per mile
Whole
Tables
Baseline Useful Life (years)
N/A
10
40
40
40
20
30
15
30
40
30
30
30
30
30
10
40
20
10
15
20
$
Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas
Graphs
ISER Public Infrastructure
Study
Wind Farm Parameterization
for WRF
Adams & Keith
Modification of
the MYJ PBL
scheme
Similar work
being done
commercially
by 3TIER,
AER, others
MMS-WRF winds 1
MMS-WRF winds 2
MMS-WRF winds 3
MMS-WRF winds 4
AEA
Energy
Hydropower AEA
Atlas, 2007
Ship track
Readiness?
If we don’t start to integrate these models they
may never become ready…
Data management may be the biggest
challenge
May need to modify existing couplers/design
a human dimension standard
May need to design ‘community’ decision
support tool
Readiness:
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•
•
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Oil and Gas Recovery (& spill transport)
Freshwater Supply
Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geo)
Commercial, Subsistence & Sport Fishing
Infrastructure
Coastal Erosion
Subsistence Harvest of Furbearers, Caribou
Marine Transport (& emissions)
A few of the many challenges
• Data acquisition and management
(international)
• Models appropriate for the pan-Arctic
domain
• Decision support interface
• Representing uncertainty quantitatively
(including inter-temporal discount rate)
Why code human systems
directly into models?
• There are (nearly) appropriate existing
models
• We have the computing resources
• Bridges the gaps between physical
system and human dimension
• It’s interesting work at the frontiers of
research!!!
Thanks
?
Communicating uncertainty
New Scientific Methodology?
Funtowicz & Ravetz, in Ecological Economics, 1991
Arctic human dimensions
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Oil and Gas Module (spill transport)
Rural Resilience (wind power potential)
Coastal Erosion (evolving coastline)
Freshwater (hydropower, water supply)
Marine Fisheries (Bering ecosystem)
Marine Transport (ice cover trajectories)
BSIERP
Lower Trophic Level
Ecosystem Model
Predation
Losses
Euphausiids
Detritus
14 component Model
NPZD-Benthos
Neocalanus
Pseudocalanus
Small
microzooplankton
Small
Phytoplankton
Nitrate
Large
microzooplankton
Large
Phytoplankton
Iron
Ammonium
Benthos
Benthic
Infauna
Benthic
Detritus