Transcript - Catalyst

Planning for climate change in
the Pacific Northwest
Outline
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Terminology: mitigation vs.
adaptation
Assessing vulnerability to climate
fluctuations
Spatial scale of planning for climate
change
Who’s preparing?
Planning in the PNW
Terminology
Adaptation
Mitigation
Responding to Climate Change:
Mitigation and Adaptation
Mitigation activities
Adaptation activities
Focus on reducing
emissions of
greenhouse gases
Focus on developing the
capacity to manage the
change that occurs as
mitigation strategies are
debated and enacted.
Climate Impacts Group.
Why Adaptive Planning?....
• Significant climate change impacts are
projected, and the impacts expected within the
next few decades are largely unavoidable.
• Decisions with long-term impacts are being
made every day. Today’s choices will shape
tomorrow’s vulnerabilities.
• Significant time is required to motivate and
develop adaptive capacity, and to implement
changes.
• In many (if not most) cases, it will cost more to
retrofit for climate resilience than to build for it in
the first place. (And there may be benefits…)
Planning for Uncertainty
Look to implement
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“No regrets” strategies
Provides benefits now with or without
climate change (e.g., water conservation
program)
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“Low regrets” strategies
Provide climate change benefits for little
additional cost or risk (e.g., adding 10%
capacity rather than 5%)
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“Win-win” strategies
Reduce climate change impacts while
providing other environmental, social, or
economic benefits (e.g., wetlands protection)
Vulnerability Assessment
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Identify outcome variables of
concern … vulnerability of what? over
what timescale?
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Identify stressors of concern
vulnerability to what?
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Full vulnerability assessment
adds consideration of the
context, values & objectives
Vogel & O’Brien 2004
Components of Climate Vulnerability
Exposure
the degree to which a system experiences
a fluctuation in climate
Characteristics of climate fluctuation:
Magnitude, areal extent, frequency, duration, suddenness
Components of Climate Vulnerability
Adaptability
to what degree are adjustments possible
in practices, processes, or structures of
systems in response to projected or actual
changes in climate?
Two-Pronged Approach:
Building Capacity and Delivering Action
Building Adaptive
Capacity
Delivering Adaptive
Actions
•Addressing institutional,
legal, cultural, technical,
fiscal and other barriers
•Activities can be taken
independent of specific
climate projections
•Implementing actions to
address specific climate
vulnerabilities
•Choice and timing of some
actions may depend on
specifics of the climate
projections
Characteristics of Adaptation
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ongoing process (embedded examples of
existing adaptations to climate)
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adaptation = both a policy response and a
spontaneous adjustment
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occurs not in isolation but within complex
milieu of ecological, economic, social &
institutional circumstances
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not always successful
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maladaptation occurs because of other social
goals, often short-term
The importance of preparation
What defines success?
Define “successful” adaptation
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survival in largely the same form as it exists today (stability)
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continued ability to provide the same or similar system functions over the long
term
Do we want PNW forests to provide harvestable timber or to support biological
diversity? I
Do we want homes near today’s current flood plain to be protected in their current
locations or for there to be no homes there to worry about protecting?
Define the temporal and spatial scales for evaluation
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Criteria for success vary with the spatial scale of evaluation and are weighted
and valued differently by different interest groups (Adger et al. 2005).
Do we want the PNW to continue providing harvestable timber (or supporting
biodiversity) over the next 10, 100, or 1000 years?
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Indicators calculated at one scale may hide substantial variations in adaptive
capacity at another (Adger et al. 2005b).
Are we interested in the continued existence of salmon somewhere in the world, or the
survival of specific stocks within specific watersheds in the PNW?
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Efficiency, effectiveness, equity & legitimacy… (Adger et al. 2005).
Why assess vulnerability?
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To understand actual implications of climate change
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To provide a do-nothing benchmark for evaluating
response options
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Identify priority areas for action (high exposure, high
sensitivity, low adaptatibility)
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Guide decision makers in planning (via identification &
evaluation of adaptation options)
Outline





Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation
Assessing vulnerability to climate
fluctuations
Spatial scale of planning for
climate change
Who’s preparing?
Planning in the PNW
Global warming impacts on United
States: Common concerns…
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drought
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extreme events
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human health
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forests
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agriculture
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sea level rise/coastal impacts
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loss of biodiversity
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…
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
(NAST 2000)
What makes
region-specific
impacts unique?
Climate Impacts Group
Climate Impacts Group
Climate Impacts Group
Climate Impacts Group
Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW)
Climate Impacts Group
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
http://www.yakima.net/
Climate Impacts Group
What causes variability in impacts?
Heterogeneity of:
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climate change
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climatic sensitivities
ecosystems and natural resources
human alteration of natural systems
degree of human dependence on natural
systems
human ability to cope . . .
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Lessons Learned
The regional textures of environmental and social
processes require a regional (or finer-scale)
approach to assessing and responding to climate
impacts.
Outline





Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation
Assessing vulnerability to climate
fluctuations
Spatial scale of planning for climate
change
Who’s preparing?
Planning in the PNW
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/tools/adapt.asp
Outline
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
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

Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation
Assessing vulnerability to climate
fluctuations
Spatial scale of planning for climate
change
Who’s preparing?
Planning in the PNW
Local preparation for climate change
Seattle – City Light, Public Utilities, Port
King County – in-house, state-wide, nationally
Columbia River Basin - US Army Corps of Engineers,
Bonneville Power Administration, etc.
NOAA – guidance for ESA decisions under climate change
City of Olympia – sea level rise and increased river runoff
Olympic National Park/National Forest – vulnerability
assessment/adaptation planning
Washington State…
The foundation for WA’s efforts to address both climate change mitigation
and adaptation is Exec Order 07-02, signed February 7, 2007
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Decision Support
• Support for the WA
Preparation/Adaptation
Working Groups (PAWGs)
(July-Dec 2007).
o Participated in monthly
meetings
o Provided technical guidance
on climate impacts science
and adaptation
o Reviewed PAWG
recommendations
Released February 2008
Washington State PAWG Recs
Broad range of recommendations related to:
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Enhancing emergency preparedness and response;
Incorporating climate change and its impacts into
planning and decision-making processes;
Restoring and protecting natural systems and natural
resources;
Building institutional capacity and knowledge to address
impacts associated with climate change;
More effectively managing and sharing best available
data; and
Educating, informing and engaging landowners, public
officials, citizens and others.
www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Decision Support (cont’d)
• Washington Climate Change
Impacts Assessment
o Funded by the WA State
Legislature under HB 1303, §404
o First comprehensive assessment
of climate change impacts on WA
o Products include final report as
well as comprehensive data sets
“An absolutely groundbreaking
study….adds urgency and specificity to
the range of impacts that we will have
to be concerned with.”
-- Jay Manning, Director, WA Dept of Ecology,
(2.11.09, Weekday, KUOW 94.9 FM)
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Decision Support (cont’d)
• Peer-reviewed scientific publications, white papers, fact
sheets, and other documents on climate impacts
•
Motivation for writing grew
out of October 2005 King
County climate change
conference
•
Written by the CIG and King
County, WA in association
with ICLEI – Local
Governments for
Sustainability
•
Focused on the process
(not a sector), and written
for a national audience
•
More than 2,000 hard copies
and electronic copies
distributed globally
Breaking Down Sensitivity…
a
b
c
e
…and Adaptability
King County, WA
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Replacing 57+ “short
span” bridges with
wider spans
Replacing undersized
culverts
Incorporating low
impact development
techniques to reduce
stormwater runoff
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Revamping county
levee system
Bringing water reuse
plant online
Evaluating impacts
of sea level rise on
wastewater
infrastructure
City of Olympia, WA
$150,000 allocated to start on climate change
adaptation strategy
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Installing 2 GPS station downtown to better assess
subsidence and uplift in the downtown area
Implementing Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR)
technology to improve topographical elevation
information (over aerial photography) for more accurate
hydrologic modeling and vulnerability analysis
A hydraulic computer model will be developed to better
evaluate the interactions between stormwater and
streamflow
City of Olympia, WA cont’d
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Relocating primary water supply from surface water
source to higher elevation groundwater source.
Developing a 3-10 year work plan to implement longerterm adaptation actions such as changes in building
codes, FEMA flood hazard zone, and utility
infrastructure.
Partnership building
2009-2010 activities include:
 Evaluating current high tides and Deschutes River
flooding
 Assessing potential impacts on drinking water
aquifers.
Supporting WA State Climate Needs:
Decision Support (cont’d)
• Columbia River Basin Water Supply
Development Program
o Funded by the State Legislature under
HB 2860
o CIG working with Dept. of Ecology to
develop a comprehensive hydrologic
database of climate change scenarios to
support long-range water planning in the
Columbia River Basin
o Database will include wide variety of
future climate change scenarios for ~300
locations
Hydrologic
Data
~300 Sites
Upper Columbia
River Basin
40+ realizations
of future
streamflow
variability at
each location
Yakima River
Basin
Kootenai River
Basin
Salmon River Basin
Mainstem
Columbia
River Basin
Willamette
River Basin
Snake River Basin