Transcript Climate change adaptation to sea level rise

The influences of symbolic and practical cues
on climate change decisions
Gabrielle Wong-Parodi
(Baruch Fischhoff & Ben Strauss)
Carnegie Mellon University
May 20, 2014
1
Talking about adaptation
Complicated by politicization
2
Prime triggers climate change identity
Indirect (symbolic cues) or direct
Environmentalists
(Whitmarsh & O’Neill, 2011)
PERCEPTUAL
SCREEN
PERCEPTUAL
SCREEN
Political affiliation
(Costa & Kahn, 2013)
3
Research question
How do symbolic cues (indirect) that evoke sense
of identity affect a hypothetical decision with
outcomes related to climate change?
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Buying a home in an area vulnerable
to coastal flooding
SAVANNAH, GEORGIA
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Indirect priming through symbolic cues
Moving to Savannah, GA with no plans to move again
Pick home using Zillow®
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Framing (none, elevation, global warming, both)
– None
– Elevation (practical cue)
– Global warming (symbolic cue)
– Both (practical & symbolic cue)
The best scientific knowledge suggests
that sea level is rising in Savannah. Sea
level has been rising for as long as
scientists have been able to measure it
accurately. The more that sea level
rises, the more coastal floods increase.
Global warming contributes to sea level
rise by melting glaciers and ice sheets
into the oceans. It also heats ocean
water, causing it to expand.
Elevation
Global warming
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Information (none, Risk Finder)
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Belief (nonbeliever, believer)
Recently you may have noticed that global warming
has been getting some attention in the news. Global
warming refers to the idea that the world’s average
temperature has been increasing over the past 150
years, may be increasing more in the future, and that
the world’s climate may change as a result.
What do you think? Do you think that global warming
is happening?
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Participants
– 1,578 participants total
– 1,224 believers and 363 nonbelievers
– Mean age 31.1 (SD=10.2)
– 45.8% female
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Six Americas
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Participants
– 1,578 participants total
– 1,224 believers and 363 nonbelievers
– Mean age 31.1 (SD=10.2)
– 45.8% female
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Measures
– Dependent variables:
•
•
•
•
•
Buying with insurance
Buying without insurance
Moving without insurance
Overall perceived risk
Sensitivity to insurance
– Independent variables:
• Framing (none, elevation, global warming, both)
• Information (no Risk Finder, Risk Finder)
• Belief (believer, nonbeliever)
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Information enhances risk perceptions
Overall perceived risk (1=low risk, 7=high risk)
7
No Risk Finder
Risk Finder
6
b
5
b
But,b global
warming
(symbolic cue) washes out
a
effect
b
a
4
a
a
Global warming evokes
fear & knowledge, with
same effect as Risk Finder
for believers and
nonbelievers
3
2
1
None
Elevation
Global
Warming
Framing
Both
None
Elevation
Global
Warming2
Both
F x I: F=9.34, p<.05, η =.02
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Global warming enhances risk perceptions
Overall perceived risk (1=low risk, 7=high risk)
7
believer
nonbeliever
Stronger cues (practical to
symbolic) elicit greater
a
concern
6
a
5
b
b
4
But, only up to a certain
point
Perceived risk drops for
nonbelievers when shown
elevation & global
warming information
3
2
1
None
Elevation
Global
Warming
Framing
Both
None
Elevation
Global
Warming2
Both
F x B: F=5.01, p<.05, η =.01
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What if we prime directly?
Study 1 (indirect prime)
– 1,578 participants total
– 1,224 believers and 363 nonbelievers
– Mean age 31.1 (SD=10.2)
– 45.8% female
Study 2 (direct prime)
– 405 participants total
– 194 believers and 211 nonbelievers
– Mean age 32.2 (SD=11.0)
– 37.7% female
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Similar pattern: direct or indirect prime
- Information heighted perceived risk for
believers and nonbelievers
- Global warming same effect as information
• Symbolic cue increased perceived risk for indirect prime
(Study 1) but not for direct prime (Study 2)
• Belief mattered for only elevation & global warming
frame, lowered perceived risk for nonbelievers
– Too heavy handed?
- Primes (symbolic) important, but for specific
decisions providing information can override
prime
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Implications for talking about adaptation
Sea level rise information
– Focus on specific, personal, real-world decisions
– Know your audience
• All nonbelievers, focus on risk/impact information
• Mixed, acknowledge beliefs may differ
• All believers, symbolic cues & risk/impact information
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Acknowledgements
Center for Climate and Energy Decision
Making (DMUU Solicitation NSF 09-554
Award for developing Communications
to Promote Resiliency through NOAA
and Sea Grant Connecticut
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Thank you!
Contact information
Carnegie Mellon University, 129 BH, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
[email protected]
Websites
CMU research website
www.epp.cmu.edu/people/bios/wongparodi.html
Climate Central’s Surging Seas Risk Navigator
www.sealevel.climatecentral.org
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Back up slides
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People are sensitive to primes
Semantic
DOCTOR XGWNURSEGSQC
BREAD XGWNURSEGSQC
Associative
PEANUT BUTTER AND __________
CATS AND __________
Conceptual
TABLE AND CHAIR
TABLE AND GRASS
Problematic for promoting engagement & dialogue
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Information enhances risk perceptions
Overall perceived risk (1=low risk, 7=high risk)
7
No Risk Finder
Risk Finder
6
b
b
5
b
b
a
4
a
a
a
3
2
1
None
Elevation
Global
Warming
indirect prime
Both
None
Framing
Elevation
Global
Warming
Both
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Information enhances risk perceptions
Overall perceived risk (1=low risk, 7=high risk)
7
No Risk Finder
Risk Finder
6
b
b
5
b
b
a
4
a
a
a
3
2
1
None
Elevation
Global
Warming
indirect prime
Both
None
Framing
Elevation
Global
Warming
direct prime
Both
24
Information enhances risk perceptions
Overall perceived risk (1=low risk, 7=high risk)
7
No Risk Finder
6
5
Risk Finder
Similarly, global warming
washes out effect of Risk
b
b
Finder
b
b
a
4
3
a
a
a
Global
warming evokes fear
& knowledge, with same
effect as Risk Finder for
believers and nonbelievers
2
1
None
Elevation
F x I: F=3.61,
Global
Both
Warming
p<.05,
η2=.03
None
Framing
Elevation
Global
Warming
direct prime
Both
25
Global warming enhances risk perceptions
Overall perceived risk (1=low risk, 7=high risk)
7
believer
nonbeliever
6
a
a
5
b
b
4
3
2
1
None
Elevation
Global
Warming
indirect prime
Both
None
Framing
Elevation
Global
Warming
Both
26
Both enhances believers risk perceptions
Overall perceived risk (1=low risk, 7=high risk)
7
believer
nonbeliever
6
a
a
5
b
b
4
3
2
1
None
Elevation
Global
Warming
indirect prime
Both
None
Framing
Elevation
Global
Warming
direct prime
Both
27
Both enhances believers risk perceptions
Overall perceived risk (1=low risk, 7=high risk)
7
believer
6
5
4
3
2
nonbeliever
Main difference, no
increasing trend when
primed to think abouta
identity (about average of
b
Study 1)
a
b
A similarity, perceived risk
much less for nonbelievers
when shown elevation &
global warming information
than for believers
1
None
Elevation
Global
Warming
2
Both
None
F x B: F=.66, p>.05, η =.01
Framing
Elevation
Global
Warming
direct prime
Both
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