Transcript 1_Climate Migration

Seminar on
Climate Forced Migrants : A Political
and Development Challenge
BAPA/CSRL/EquityBD/NCC,B/SUPRO/Voice
Presented by: Mizanur Rahman Bijoy
National Press Club, 01 Novebmer,2011
Migration
Migration is a flexible and dynamic
phenomenon in human history,
but in recent time it appears as a
reality that needs to be managed.
Climate Change Induced Migration
Christian Aid estimated -200 million
and the Stern Review (2006)-250 million
Forced Migration: A harsh reality for
Bangladesh
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Poverty rate
Education
Health
high population density
population growth
Legal status of Climate Refugees (1)
• The United Nations’ 1951 Convention
and 1967 Protocol do not allow Climate
Migrants as a Refugee .
- Delegates in the Maldives
meeting (2006) proposed
an amendment to the 1951
Geneva Convention
- A liberal interpretation of the Geneva Convention
has been proposed by Ammer (2009)
But neither states nor the UNHCR ready to accept a
liberal interpretation
Legal status of Climate Refugees (2)
• Some progressive national laws and regional
agreements-In Australia, MIGRATION (CLIMATE REFUGEES)
AMENDMENT BILL 2007 creates a new visa category.
- “States Parties shall take measures to protect and assist
persons who have been internally displaced due to
natural or human made disasters, including climate
change” (Article 5 Para. 4, Kampala Convention)
- Nansen Conference on Climate Change and
Displacement (June, 2011) calls to the international
community to proclaim the displaced people as
refugee..
Environment-Climate ChangeMigration nexus
- More than 42 million
people were displaced
in 2010 by natural
disasters in which 38
million by climate
related disasters and
out of 42 million, 569
thousands were only
from Bangladesh
(NRC,2009).
Environment-Climate ChangeMigration nexus (1)
• A larger number of people are expected to
migrate due to a gradual deterioration /Slowonset environmental processes (e.g.
desertification, reduction of soil fertility and
coastal erosion).
• A mass invasion of migrants, can also affect
the environment in places of destination,
particularly in unmanaged urbanization or
refugee camps and temporary shelters.
Climate change induced migration
and Security concern (2)
Climate change induced migration
and Security concern (3)
•
A report of Greenpeace noticed that in
the absence of desirable level emission
cut under an international agreement,
global temperature will increase 40 to 50
C and 3 to 5 meter sea level rise within
the end of this century, lead to
transform nearly 130 million people of
the Indo- subcontinent in to climate
refugee, of them about 75 million will be
Bangladeshi nationals.
Potential climate change
induced migration in the
Indian neighbourhood due
to sudden climatic events
or a slow trickle due to
gradual climate change
processes and these
events are likely to impact
migration inflow from
Bangladesh, Nepal and
Bhutan.
Country Context (1)
• In between 1970 to 2009 about 39 million
people in Bangladesh were displaced by major
natural events like flood and cyclone (Akter,
2009).
Country Context (2)
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BCCSAP (2009)
loss of livelihood opportunities
diminishing productivity in agricultural sector,
Increased river bank erosion and saline water
intrusion on coastal areas
• Six to eight million people could be displaced
by 2050
Country Context (3)
Table 01: Potential Out-migration Rates in Bangladesh under Serve Climate Change Scenario (Ahmed & Neelormi, 2008).
Climate driven issue
Loss of livelihoods
Potential out-migration
number of people/y
People/yr
Frequency
Erosion (in both coastal and reverie chars)
50,000-200,000
60,000
Annual
Salinity
1,200,000
10,000-15,000
Annual
Storm surge &
300,000-400,000
100,000-120,000
Once in three to five years
Water logging
350,000
30,000
Annual
Country Context (5)
•Reputedly
embankment
failures in 2007, 2008 and
mare violently in 25th May
of 2009 (cyclone Aila)
forced the poor families to
migrate. A total of 123,000
people bound to migrate in
the nearby town (Khulna
and Jessore) or move to
Dhaka and Chittagong or
to Kolkata of India (Mehedi
et al., 2010).
Political and Development Challenge (1)
Walsham (2010) warn that, ‘… the impacts of climate
change and its migratory consequences – forced or
voluntary, temporary or permanent, urban or rural – raise a
number of significant human security concerns in
Bangladesh’.
According to McAdam and Saul (2010), the effects of climate
change will interact with existing underlying causes of
political, economic and social instability in Bangladesh,
exacerbating the risks of displacement and insecurity.
Climate impacts will further limit economic opportunities,
including by impacting on river resources and straining
government capacity to assist displaced people.
Political and Development Challenge (2)
•Current financial mechanisms for climate change
adaptation are limited, and are not sufficient to
address the growing need to cope with the
uncertainties of displacement (ADB,2009).
•The country neither has the adequate resource to
accommodate the ‘climate refugees’, nor has the
capacity to employ them in productive economic
activities.
Political and Development Challenge (3)
There are some major problems connected with force
migration, of which resettlement takes the top place.
•Shortage of adequate finance and land resources and of
course administrative capacity.
•A huge amount of investment and enormous effort is
needed (for infrastructures, power generation and watersanitation facilities).
•Adapting with new social environment and social unrest
are at a risk of resettlement.
• Bangladesh is yet to develop any policy regarding mass
displacement, internal migration or resettlement.
Policy Options for Climate Migrants (1)
The BCCSAP (2009) undertake only three long term
actions under one program (T4P6) to address the issue
of climate migration.
But one of the major limitations of BCCSAP, 2009 is to
ignore the increasing trend of regional migration.
Policy Options for Climate Migrants (2)
Migration issues are not effectively
mainstreamed with environmental, disaster
management, or climate change policy.
Truly effective action will require the active
involvement of all stakeholders – local as
well as national government, communities
themselves, civil society organizations and
NGOs.
Recommendations: Development agencies
•Environmental migration, climate change induced migration and the
term climate refugee need to be recognized in the international law and
should be guided by the fundamental principles of human rights and
international cooperation.
•The polluter countries that are responsible to accelerate climate
change should create legal instruments for facilitating planned
migration from the most vulnerable countries. For this purpose a
special fund should be in place under UNFCCC mechanism.
•Coping strategies to face rapid climate change should be strengthened
in a variety of ways (i.e training and awareness, better education,
diversification of livelihood options, community led natural resource
management, and effective disaster risk management) that can reduce
a country's vulnerability and increase its ability to build a climate
resilient society.
•The leadership and engagement of local governments and
communities, civil society, and the private sector, are needed to
address effectively the challenges posed by climate change, including
those linked to human mobility.
Recommendations /Policy makers
1.Government of Bangladesh should formulate
National Climate Change policy as soon as possible,
where the rights of climate migrants will be clearly
attributed and legally protected.
2. The issue of climate migration should be included in
regional agenda i.g. Climate Summit for a Living
Himalayas, Bhutan 2011 and The SAARC Action Plan
on Climate Change (2009-2011).
3.In response to the nation states obligation to protect
the climate displaced population, progressive land and
agricultural reform become obvious to tackle the flow
of climate refugee within the national boundary.
Recommendations /Policy makers
4. It should be a priority issue in all climate adaptation plan
including BCCSAP.
5. Govt. should consider all development projects especially
constructing new physical infrastructure in such a way that
wouldn’t create any displacement and occupying cultivable land.
6. Emphasize in long term urban planning in such a way that
would accommodate all climate migrants i.e. 30 million by next
50 yrs.
7. Raise coordinated voice on demanding new UN protocol for
climate migrants in view of human rights and other UN charter
that obliged the high emitting developed countries to take the
responsibility for relocating and resettlement.
8. Govt. and non-govt. agencies should consider the climate
forced migrant as a priority agenda in their development and
advocacy strategy.