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The following is not for
the faint of heart.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming & sea
level rise
Fraser Valley scenarios
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A relatively close neighbour
M81 is
located
at a
distance
of 12
million
lightyears.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Look closely
What strikes you about this image
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Two critical features
Finite
• limited size
No emergency
exits
• Come what
may, we are
stuck here
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A fine balance
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Our Atmosphere
PERMANENT gases in the atmosphere by percent are:
–
–
Nitrogen 78.1%
Oxygen 20.9%
(Note that these two permanent gases together
comprise 99% of the atmosphere)
Other permanent gases:
–
–
–
–
–
Argon
Neon
Helium
Krypton
Hydrogen
0.9%
0.002%
0.0005%
0.0001%
0.00005%
Source: http://www.met.fsu.edu/explores/atmcomp.html
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Our Atmosphere
VARIABLE gases in the atmosphere and
typical percentage values are:
–
–
–
–
Water vapor
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Ozone
0 to 4%
0.035%
0.0002%
0.000004%
Source: http://www.met.fsu.edu/explores/atmcomp.html
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
“Climate change is the most severe
problem we are facing today”
Sir David King, Britain’s chief science advisor
Source: Science, 2004, quoted in Vanity Fair May 2006
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
How are we doing?
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
How are we doing?
“There is real concern that
by the end of the next
century, human
activities will have
changed the basic
conditions that have
allowed life to thrive on
earth.”
– Understanding
Climate Change: A
Beginner's Guide to
the UN Framework
Convention
Source: Rick Kool
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming
The 20 hottest years on record
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Glacial Retreat
Glacial
Retreat:
Thinning of
the tongue
during the
1990s
accelerated
and as of
2001 a lake
started to
form in
front of it
(right
image). The
ice became
buoyant and
rapid breakup of the
snout is
now
underway
(Michael
Hambrey,
www.swiss
educ.ch/gla
ciers/earth_
icy_planet/g
laciers04en.html).
Source: Stronger Evidence but New Challenges: Climate Change Science 2001-2005;Will Steffen;
Executive Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) from 1998 through
mid-2004 and, since then, as IGBP Chief Scientist and as Director of the Centre for Resource and
Environmental Studies, at the Australian National University.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
What do Canadian climate
scientists say?
As the climate changes, there will be
increasing impacts on Canada’s
natural ecosystems and on its socioeconomic activities.
Source: An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada on Climate Change Science
April 18 2006; Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and private
sectors across the country
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
What do Canadian climate
scientists say?
Some impacts are:
• Inadequate water for Prairie agriculture
and hydroelectric utilities due to
increased drying of the continental
interior and reduced snow pack and
shrinking glaciers;
Source: An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada on Climate Change Science
April 18 2006; Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and private
sectors across the country
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
What do Canadian climate
scientists say?
• Threats to the sustainability of Canada’s
natural resources due to an inability of our
ecosystems to respond rapidly as the climate
changes.
– Warming allowing the spread of insects through our
forests and prolonged drought making forests more
susceptible to fires;
– Warming of ocean and river waters, threatening
survival of Pacific salmon, a cold water fish, by forcing
it away from its spawning grounds;
Source: An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada on Climate Change Science
April 18 2006; Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and private
sectors across the country
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
What do Canadian climate
scientists say?
• Increasing severity and frequency of some extreme
weather events, including floods and droughts, some
of which are already exceeding 100-year records and
requiring more robust design specifications for
infrastructure;
• Thawing of permafrost and associated effects on the
human environment (infrastructure, roads, pipelines,
buildings), sea ice, northern ecosystems and species,
all leading to dramatic changes in the lives of
northern people;
Source: An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada on Climate Change Science
April 18 2006; Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and private sectors
across the country
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
What do Canadian climate
scientists say?
• Increased marine traffic through the northern sea
routes, increasing the likelihood of environmental
impacts and challenges to Canada’s sovereignty
claims in the Arctic.
• Some of these projected impacts are already
detectable.
Source: An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada on Climate Change Science
April 18 2006; Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and
private sectors across the country
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Top 20 carbon dioxide emitters
1996
Country
Total
emissions
Per capita
emissions
(1000 tons of
C)
(tons/capita)
Total
emission
Growth
(rank)
(in %, 1990-96)
United States
1446777
5.37
-1
-9.9
Peoples Rep. of China
917997
0.76
-18
40
Russia Federation
431090
2.91
-6
-19.2 (since 1992)
Japan
318686
2.54
-9
9.1
India
272212
0.29
-20
47.7
Germany
235050
2.87
-7
-12.2
United Kingdom
152015
2.59
-8
-1.1
Canada
111723
3.76
-4
-0.1
South Korea
111370
2.46
-11
69.2
Italy
110052
1.92
-13
1.1
Ukraine
108431
2.1
-12
-37 (since 1992)
France (incl. Monaco)
98750
1.69
-15
2.4 (since 1992)
Poland
97375
2.52
-10
2.6
Mexico
95007
1.02
-17
18
Australia
83688
4.63
-2
15.3
South Africa
79898
1.88
-14
0.6
Brazil
74610
0.46
-19
34.9
Saudi Arabia
73098
3.88
-3
51.2
Iran
72779
1.04
-16
25.6
North Korea
69412
3.09
-5
4
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Canada now
Canada has experienced its warmest
winter since modern record-keeping
began, with average temperatures 3.9
degrees above normal and all regions of
the country basking in abnormal
mildness, according to preliminary
figures compiled by Environment
Canada.
Source: Globe and Mail, Mar. 14, 2006, “Hot Enough For You” by Martin Mittelstaedt
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Canada now
The biggest departure from typical winter
weather was in the area where Alberta,
Saskatchewan and the Northwest
Territories converge. Temperatures
there were a staggering eight degrees
warmer than normal.
Source: Globe and Mail, Mar. 14, 2006, “Hot Enough For You” by Martin Mittelstaedt
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Canada now
But other notable warm spots included the
entire Prairie region, where
temperatures were five to seven
degrees above average, and southern
British Columbia.
Source: Globe and Mail, Mar. 14, 2006, “Hot Enough For You” by Martin Mittelstaedt
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Canada now
"Statistically, this is a one-in-a-100-years
kind of event,"
said Bob Whitewood, a climatologist with
Environment Canada in Toronto.
Source: Globe and Mail, Mar. 14, 2006, “Hot Enough For You” by Martin Mittelstaedt
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A view from the US Dept of Energy
Of particular concern are nonlinear changes in the
intensity, frequency, magnitude, or geographic
locus of losses.
As a real-world example, according to a letter
published in Nature, the European heat wave of
2003 was six standard deviations from the norm.
Rising uncertainty will confound pricing and
reduce insurability in some cases.
Evan Mills, a staff scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A view from the US Dept of
Energy
From an actuarial perspective, abrupt
climate change is much more of a
challenge to insurers than a stylized
view of gradual and linear changes
over long time frames.
Evan Mills, a staff scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A view from the US Dept of
Energy
Insured losses from weather-related
events in 2005 approached $80 billion
(4 times those from 9/11), and that
excludes a host of small-scale events
that don’t appear in the official statistics.
Evan Mills, a staff scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A view from the US Dept of
Energy
It is important to note that many of the impacts of
climate change, especially small-scale or gradualloss events that have enormous aggregate costs—
lightning, permafrost melt, mold, drought, or sea-level
rise—are poorly (if at all) incorporated in these
models. This creates some worrisome blind spots,
which I’m afraid will grow larger under climate
change.
Evan Mills, a staff scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A business analysis: Swiss Re
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A business analysis: Swiss Re
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A business analysis: Swiss Re
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Major Floods
Source: Stronger Evidence but New Challenges: Climate Change Science 2001-2005;Will Steffen; Executive Director of the
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) from 1998 through mid-2004 and, since then, as IGBP Chief Scientist
and as Director of the Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, at the Australian National University.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Some thoughts on BC forests
“British Columbia hasn't been this warm in 8,000 years,
and the winters are no longer cold enough to keep
the beetles in check.
Global-warming scenarios the International Panel on
Climate Change forecast for 50 years from now are
already unfolding in the province's interior.”
Source: Globe and Mail, April 22, 2006; “We Might Become Extinct” by Terry Glavin
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Some thoughts on BC forests
“Now, Dr. Hebda is starting to wonder whether the pine
forests will ever grow back.
‘We just don't know,’ he says ‘Lodgepole-pine forests
need catastrophic events such as beetle outbreaks
and a few decades, even from a beetle outbreak
even of this magnitude.’”
Source: Globe and Mail, April 22, 2006; “We Might Become Extinct” by Terry Glavin
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Nothing is "normal" any more.
“But nobody knows whether B.C.'s climate, decades
from now, will be able to support pine forests.
Nothing is "normal" any more.”
Source: Globe and Mail, April 22, 2006; “We Might Become Extinct” by Terry Glavin
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Nothing is "normal" any more.
Source: Ministry of Forests: Last Modified: 2005 MAY 10.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Will there even be any trees?
Source: Ministry of Forests: Last Modified: 2005 MAY 10.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Will there even be any trees?
“’The question is, will there be forests at all in the
southern portion of British Columbia's central
interior? Will there even be any trees?’ Dr. Hebda
asks. ‘It all depends on how much CO{-2} we push
into the atmosphere.’”
“So, when Dr. Hebda looks into the future, he sees a lot
of sagebrush, grassland and rangeland where the
pine forests are now, at high elevations, and down
among the spruce, fir and ponderosa pine.”
Source: Globe and Mail, April 22, 2006; “We Might Become Extinct” by Terry Glavin
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global Warming & Sea level rise
Climate Change: On the Edge
Greenland Ice Cap Breaking Up at Twice the Rate It Was
Five Years Ago
by Jim Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, is
President George Bush's top climate modeller.
Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: Sea level rise
“How far can it go?
The last time the world was three degrees
warmer than today – which is what we expect
later this century – sea levels were 25m
higher.
So that is what we can look forward to if we
don't act soon.”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Risk is increasing
“ Thus, there is now perceived to be a greater risk
that the upper end of the well known IPCC
TAR estimate of a 1.4 to 5.8oC temperature rise
will be reached or exceeded by 2100.”
IPCC:
TAR:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Third Assessment Report
Source: Stronger Evidence but New Challenges: Climate Change Science 2001-2005;Will Steffen; Executive
Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) from 1998 through mid-2004 and, since
then, as IGBP Chief Scientist and as Director of the Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, at the
Australian National University.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Ecological Footprint: Climate
Change
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global Mean Temperature &
Risks
Source: Stronger Evidence but New Challenges: Climate Change Science 2001-2005;Will Steffen; Executive Director of the
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) from 1998 through mid-2004 and, since then, as IGBP Chief
Scientist and as Director of the Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, at the Australian National University.
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“None of the current climate and ice
models predict this. But I prefer the
evidence from the Earth's history and
my own eyes.
I think sea-level rise is going to be the big
issue soon, more even than warming
itself.”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“It's hard to say what the world will be like if this
happens.
It would be another planet.”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“How long have we got?”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“We have to stabilize emissions of carbon
dioxide within a decade, or
temperatures will warm by more than
one degree.
That will be warmer than it has been for
half a million years, and many things
could become unstoppable. “
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“This new satellite data is a remarkable
advance. We are seeing for the first
time the detailed behavior of the ice
streams that are draining the Greenland
ice sheet.”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“They show that Greenland seems to be
losing at least 200 cubic kilometers of
ice a year.
It is different from even two years ago,
when people still said the ice sheet was
in balance.”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet
Most extensive in 27 year history of data collection
Figure courtesy of NOAA and CIRES
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“Hundreds of cubic kilometers sounds like a lot
of ice. But this is just the beginning. Once a
sheet starts to disintegrate, it can reach a
tipping point beyond which break-up is
explosively rapid.”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“The issue is how close we are getting to that
tipping point.
The summer of 2005 broke all records for
melting in Greenland. So we may be on the
edge.”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“Our understanding of what is going on is
very new. Today's forecasts of sea-level
rise use climate models of the ice
sheets that say they can only
disintegrate over a thousand years or
more.”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“But we can now see that the models are
almost worthless. They treat the ice
sheets like a single block of ice that will
slowly melt. But what is happening is
much more dynamic.”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“Once the ice starts to melt at the surface, it
forms lakes that empty down crevasses to the
bottom of the ice. You get rivers of water
underneath the ice. And the ice slides
towards the ocean.”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global Temperature and Sea Level
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise
“Our NASA scientists have measured this in
Greenland. And once these ice streams start
moving, their influence stretches right to the
interior of the ice sheet. Building an ice sheet
takes a long time, because it is limited by
snowfall.
But destroying it can be explosively rapid.”
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming & sea level rise
Others agree
“But if one is interested in risks and in preparing to
meet them, the more interesting question is what
the deep historical record can tell us about the
circumstances under which climates have changed
rapidly in the past and the severity of the
consequences.
Considered in that way, accelerated glacial melting
and larger changes in sea level (for example)
should be looked at as probable events, not as
hypothetical possibilities.”
•Source: Editorial, Science, VOL 311 24 MARCH 2006
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
North America current
Source: http://geongrid.geo.arizona.edu/arcims/website/slr1kmglobal/viewer.htm
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
North America: 1 metre sea level
rise
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Africa, Asia, Europe: 1 metre rise
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Africa, Asia, Europe: 6 meter rise
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Coastal futures : New Orleans &
Katrina
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Coastal futures
Sea level rise:
Fraser Valley scenarios
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Municipal populations 2005
Source:
BC Stats
Burnaby
204,324
Coquitlam
121,973
Delta
102,655
Langley
25,718
Langley township
97,125
Maple Ridge
73,280
New Westminster
57,480
Pitt Meadows
16,673
Port Coquitlam
57,563
Port Moody
28,458
Richmond
173,430
Surrey
393,137
Vancouver
583,267
Total
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
1,935,083
Scenario 1: Current Situation
Scenario 1: Current Situation
The information contained in this package indicates a potential at a broad scale (for discussion
purposes only)
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Scenario 2: 2.5 meters
The information contained in this package indicates a potential at a broad scale (for discussion
purposes only)
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Scenario 3: 5.0 meters
The information contained in this package indicates a potential at a broad scale (for discussion
purposes only)
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Scenario 4: 10 meters
The information contained in this package indicates a potential at a broad scale (for discussion
purposes only)
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Scenario 5: 25 meters
The information contained in this package indicates a potential at a broad scale (for discussion
purposes only)
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Summary
Can we still avoid dangerous climate
change?
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Business as usual: We fly, We kill
Figure 10 Energy use of different forms of transport (41)
Rail
Boat
Road
Air
Energy
consumed
(kilojoules per
T-Km)
677
423
2,890
15,839
Emissions
of carbon
dioxide (g/
T-Km)
41
30
207
1,206
Emissions of
hydrocarbons(g/ TKm)
0.06
0.04
0.30
2.00
Emissions
of nitrogen
oxides (g/
T-Km
0.2
0.4
3.6
5.5
Emissions of
carbon
monoxide
(g/ T-Km)
0.05
0.12
2.40
1.40
T-Km = tonne-kilometres of good transported g/ T-Km = grams per tonnekilometre
Stopping the great food swap; Relocalising Europe’s food supply; Dr Caroline Lucas MEP; 2002
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
We fly, We kill
“It’s not just that aviation represents the
world’s fastest growing source of carbon
dioxide emissions. The burning of
aircraft fuel has a “radiative forcing
ratio” of around 2.7(11).”
By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 28th February 2006
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
We fly, We kill
“What this means is that the total warming
effect of aircraft emissions is 2.7 times
as great as the effect of the carbon
dioxide alone.
The water vapour they produce forms ice
crystals in the upper troposphere
(vapour trails and cirrus clouds) which
trap the earth’s heat.”
By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 28th February 2006
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
We fly, We kill
“According to calculations by the Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research, if you
added the two effects together (it urges some
caution as they are not directly comparable),
aviation’s emissions alone would exceed the
government’s target for the country’s entire
output of greenhouse gases in 2050 by
around 134%(12).”
By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 28th February 2006
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global Temperature and Sea
Level
“If we follow a business-as usual
scenario, we will be creating a hammer
hitting the Earth faster and harder than
it has ever been hit. Except perhaps
when the Earth was hit by the asteroid
that killed the dinosaurs.”
Source: Dr. James Hansen; Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference’ with Global
Climate?; Dec. 2005
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global Temperature and Sea
Level
Source: Dr. James Hansen; Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference’ with
Global Climate?; Dec. 2005
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Regional Climate Change
“In summary, with regard to regional
climate:
as with global climate and sea level,
business as-usual scenarios will
produce basically another planet.”
Source: Dr. James Hansen; Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference’ with Global
Climate?; Dec. 2005
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Basically another planet
“How else can you describe climate
change in which the Arctic becomes an
open lake in the summer and fall, and
most land areas on Earth experience
mean warming this century that is 5-10
times larger than the standard deviation
of the past century?”
Source: Dr. James Hansen; Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference’ with
Global Climate?; Dec. 2005
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Miami
Miami:
Shows
flooding
that would
occur as
the result
of
projected
sea level
rise of
slightly
over 1 1/2
feet (.6
meters)
and storm
surge from
a 100-year
storm,
which will
occur
every 10
years by
the end of
the
century.
Source: National Environment Trust
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
New York City
Animation shows flooding
that would occur as the
result of the storm
surge from a Category
II hurricane, combined
with a projected sea
level rise of 2.2 feet
(0.7 meters) anticipated
over the coming
century. According to
the National Hurricane
Center, from 19001996 the Atlantic coast
of the U.S. between
Florida and Maine has
experienced 78
hurricane strikes of
Category II or greater.
Source: National Environment Trust
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios