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Detailed analysis of climate trends form the
Northern Tier of Vermont from 2000-2014
Nasser Abdel-Fatah
Student: Johnson State College
Introduction
Results
The various Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports
focused on global climate change scenarios. However, the general public
are more concerned by local and regional changes that may develop
within the global context (IPCC, 2014). Microclimate analyses allow an
evaluation of what is happening in our region as it relates to the larger
question of global changes. The purpose of this project was to evaluate
weather data for the St. Johnsbury area (STJ) from 2000 to 2014. This
data was processed into monthly, seasonal, and yearly data. Once this
individual station evaluation was complete, the results were compared to
other stations in the northern tier of Vermont: Johnson (JSC), Burlington
(BTV), and Morrisville (MVL), (shown by the location map in Figure
1).
2000-2013 February Temperature Fairbanks Museum
105
Lowest Monthly Temperature
95
Highest Monthly Temperature
Yearly Temperatures - STJ Fairbanks Museum
Figure 3 shows the yearly
temperature profile, (2000-2010),
for St. Johnsbury. This graph
highlights:
• Years that have had high
temperatures as well as years that
have had very cold temperatures
• The increase in average
temperatures since 2000 can also
be observed
• Also noted are years of extreme
high and low temperatures, being
followed by a trend of warmer low
temperatures and lower high
temperatures
Materials and Methods
110
Lowest Monthly Temperature
100
94
90
JSC (TP)
MVL (TP)
70
66.1
75
2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
Temperature (F)
54
51
48
46
55
51
50
46
42
41
45
44
33
35
25
22.93
24.96
15
14.53
24.95
24.91
21.62
21.28
20.41
20.6
Temperature (F)
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2006
70.55
66.29
67.79
66.57
2007
2008
2009
-11
-13
-14
-20
-20
-30
20010
-5
-10
-25
-27
-22
-19
-27
-29
Year
Figure 3. Yearly Temperatures for STJ from
2000-2010.
Figure 4 shows the yearly summer
precipitation profile across the four
stations (2000-2010). This graph
shows:
• Across the four station BTV and
MVL received the least amount of
precipitation while, JSC and STJ
had the greater precipitation totals
• Overall, 2004 and 2008 had the
greatest amount of precipitation
*these years also had the highest
monthly averages, see the graph
above*
• Since 2000, there is a trend of
increase precipitation totals for the
summer season
2010
Figure 4. 2000-2010 Summer Precipitation totals across all
four stations.
22.15
17.72
12.9
2002
71.38
69.54
0
65
56
67.01
10
Year
55
68.02
20
STJ(TP)
2005
69.27
30
0
2003
91
90
40
10
2002
92
91
50
15
2001
93
60
20
2000
94
87
70.73
5
85
95
94
Monthly Average Temperature
80
25
BTV (TP)
Highest Monthly Temperature
88
2000-2010 Summer Precipitation Totals From
BTV, JSC, MVL, STJ
Precipitation (In)
Weather statistics for the St. Johnsbury station were accessed from the
National Climate Data Center (www.ncdc.noaa.gov). This data was
compiled into different tables and graphs (hourly/daily, monthly, seasonal,
and yearly data) using Microsoft Excel. The next part of this research
focused on the comparison of processed weather data (compiled by
previous RACC investigators) from three other stations: Burlington,
Johnson, and Morrisville. Figure 2 shows a comparison data for the St.
Johnsbury station for the month of February from 2000-2013.
Conclusion
10.21
5
2000
-15
-25
-16
2001
-14
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
-7
-5
-13
2007
2008
2010
-1
2011
2012
-3
2013
-10
-13
-15
-19
-27
-35
2009
-29
Year
2000-2013 February Precipitation Totals
Fairbanks Museum
40
34.12
35
32.06
32.74
30
27.3
28.42
25.4
Precipitation (In)
25
20.24
20
17.41
15.65
15
12.23
13.01 13.45
10
5.92
5
2.78
0
Figure 1. Image of Vermont with location of each
weather station compared. (Geology, 2015).
Monthly Total Precip
Overal Total Precip
Figure 2. Comparison of STJ from 2000-2013, showing
both Temperature and Precipitation Totals for February.
Figure 5 shows precipitation
comparisons for the four stations
(2000,2010). This graph shows:
• Years with the most days with
precipitation over 1” had higher
total precipitation overall
• Following the years with higher
precipitation totals, low
precipitation can be observed, in
the years 2000, 2004, and 2009
• Across the four station the
precipitation totals have shown an
increase since 2000
Precipitation Comparison for 2000-2010
60
14
Figure 6. Observed Temperature change. (IPCC,
2014).
Citations
Geology, 2015. Vermont Map Collection. Geology.com. Retrieved on
February 2015, from: http://geology.com/state-map/vermont.shtml.
IPCC, 2014: Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014:
Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral
Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field,
C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E.
Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma,
E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken,P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.
White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United
Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-32.
12
50
10
40
Precipitation (In)
-5
Despite variations, an overall warming trend
is noted over time for the St. Johnsbury
station. This is also demonstrated by the other
stations in the northern tier of Vermont.
Additionally precipitation amounts appear to
be on the increase. Trends have showed that
years with higher amount of days with 1” or
more precipitation, has the highest average
temperatures. These results are consisted with
the IPCC predictions (IPCC, 2014). With
observed trends of more extreme weather in
the near future, there needs to be a plan for
high and low temperatures (see Figure. 6)
and an overall increase in precipitation
(IPCC, 2014).
8
30
6
MVL Days
>1"
JSC Days >1"
BTV Days
>1"
STJ Days >1"
BTV
20
MVL
4
JSC
JSC
10
2
Year
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
Figure 5. 2000-2010 Precipitation comparisons across all four
stations.
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank Dr. Tania Bacchus for being my mentor
through this process; providing me knowledge and support to do
this project. Thank you to Laurence Hayes, the Fairbanks Museum,
the National Climate Data Center, Ashley Fortin and Brittany
McCarthy for providing me with information to complete this
project. And Thank you RACC, CWDD and the NSF for there
funding of this project.
For further information please contact:
[email protected] or:
[email protected]
Funding provided by NSF Grant EPS-1101317