Transcript Risk and Disaster Defined

DRM-SD:
Risk and Disaster Defined
DRM-SD Learning Lab
Sabah Saigon Hotel, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam
05-07 January 2016
Prof. K. Koshy
Centre for Global Sustainability Studies (CGSS)
Universiti Sains Malaysia
[email protected]
Triple Bottom Line Model - SD
Strong Sustainability Model - SD
Risk-Disaster: Game 1
ferocious, dog, boy, school, afraid,
bite, road, father, community
leaders, dog owner, chain, weak,
house, strong, situation, car, risk,
friends, happy, pole…
Risk-Disaster: Game 2
hazard, exposure unit, capacity,
vulnerable, risk, impacts, disaster,
coping, strategy, mitigation, great,
minimise, adaptation, improved,
happy…
Hazard
Hazard: a potentially damaging
physical event, phenomenon, or
human activity that may cause injury,
property damage, social and economic
disruption, environmental degradation
or loss of life.
Impact
Impact: the manifestation (realisation)
of the destructive forces of hazards
that destroy life and properties.
Exposure Units
Exposure units: the sectors or groups
that are impacted upon.
- Stronger the coping capacity, weaker
the impact -
Capacity
Capacity: a combination of all the
strengths and resources available
within a community, society or
organization that can reduce the level
of risk or the effects of a disaster.
Vulnerability
Vulnerability: the conditions
determined by physical, social,
economic and environmental factors
or processes which increase the
susceptibility (inability to withstand) of a
community to the impact of hazards.
(Antonym – Resilient)
Risk
Risk: the probability (likely, ‘chance’)
of harmful consequences, or expected
losses/damage (injuries, property,
livelihood, economic activity disrupted or
environment damaged, deaths) resulting
from interaction between natural or
human-induced hazards and
vulnerable exposure units.
Disaster
Disaster: “a serious disruption of the
functioning of society, causing
widespread human, material or
environmental losses which exceed the
capacity of exposure units to cope
using only its own resources.”
Disaster
Disaster is “Realised Risk”
…Risk equations =>
Risk Management 2/3
ISDR Risk Equation:
Hazard x Vulnerability = Risk
Capacity
Realised Risk is Disaster
Risk Management 1/3
Hazard - Mitigation = Vulnerability
Realised Risk is Disaster
Risk Management 3/3
Impact - Adaptation = Vulnerability
Realised Risk is Disaster
Response Measures
Mitigation: source ↓ & sink ↑
Adaptation: coping with consequences
An Integrated Approach
Climate
Hazard
Change
Mitigation
Mitigation
Impacts
Impacts
Adaptation
Adaptation
Policy
Responses
Responses
Residual Risk
…the Risk that still remains
after all response measures…
Frequency
Adaptation
x
1
drier
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)
wetter
Frequency
x
1
Adapted
(autonomously)
drierr
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)
wetter
Climate Change
“Acceptable
Frequency
Risk” threshold
Adapted
(explicitly)
x x
2
1
Adapted
(autonomously)
P2 P1
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)
Adapted to
Climate Change
Adapted
Frequency
(explicitly)
x x
2
1
Adapted
(autonomously)
P2 P1
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)
CC Adaptation – AR5, 2014
Vulnerability/Risk
Two bridges are needed to close the
vulnerability/risk gap
Technical
bridge
Ethical
bridge
Year
SUMMARY of the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015:
Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters (HFA)
Thank You
http://cgss.usm.my
Cause - Effect
LOGICAL FRAMEWORK ANALYSIS
Restaurant
not making
profit
Activities
Restaurant
making
profit
Few new customers
+
Few returning customers
Many new customers
+
Many returning customers
Unappealing surroundings and menu
+
Poor marketing strategy
Appealing surroundings and menu
+
Good marketing strategy
Problem Tree
Objective Tree
The Triple Bottom Line of SD