Transcript Empirical findings from the Ganges

Addressing Urban Vulnerability to Climate
Change:
Findings from Dhaka, Bangladesh
Craig Johnson and Iftekhar Haque
Department of Political Science and
International Development Studies
University of Guelph, Canada
Objective



How cities are getting prepared to address
the challenge of climate change
Mainstreaming climate change policies in
urban planning
Management of urban fringe development
Climate Change and Bangladesh
IPCC 2007: One of the most vulnerable
countries to climate change
 Short term climate shocks:


Cyclones
Floods
Prolonged droughts
Salinity

Long term:

Sea level rise



Flows of Migration from Climate Hotspots
“Migration to
cities is the most
common coping
strategy”
Source: World
bank (2010)
Typical destination of climate induced
migrants
Dhaka’s vulnerability to climate change

Excessive Rain


Water logging
Floods



Damage of households
in slums
Damage of roads
Water borne diseases
Drought
 Heat/Cold Wave
 Temperature Increase

Growth of Dhaka City
14
1800
1600
12
1400
(
m
i
l
l
i
o
n
)
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
10
1200
8
1000
Area
(sq km)
800
6
600
4
400
2
200
0
0
1951
1961
1974
1981
Population (in million)
1991
2001
Area (sq km)
2010
Dhaka’s Changing Land Use
Source: Dewan
and Yamaguchi
(2009)
Methodology
A six-month study in Dhaka’s Eastern
fringe
 key informant interviews






Politicians
Bureaucrats
Urban Planners
Academics
Real Estate companies
Survey of 200 households
 FGDs with affected populations

Agricultural land
Flood Flow Zones
Water retention
bodies
Detailed Area Plan: Violated by Government
Purbachal New
Town
Jhilmil Residential
area
Detailed Area Plan: Violated by Government
Purbachal New
Town
Private Housing
Projects
Jhilmil Residential
area
Detailed Area Plan: Violated by Private Sector
Illegal land filling
for housing
projects
 Forced purchasing
of land
 Land grabbing

Possible Consequences
Increased risk of floods and water logging
 Health hazards
 Loss of agricultural production
 Earthquake’s consequence will be dreadful
 Displacement
 Livelihood

Incidence of forced purchase by real
estate companies
70.00%
65.90%
60.00%
50.00%
40.46%
40.00%
% of respondents
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Forced to sell
Land filled with sand
Distribution of household
heads according to major
occupations (%)
Occupation changed from
2000-2010 (%)
60
50
40
49.14
37.71
30
42.29
2000
20
10
0
15.42
12
8.57
6.28
2010
5.71
2.29
6.71
2.29
57.71
Occupation
changed in last
ten years
Occupation
Unchabged in last
ten years
Challenges
Capital Development Authority’s dual role
as regulator and real estate
 Strong lobby of real estates and land
developers
 Influence on politics
 Media

Policy options
Reform of the Capital Development
Authority (RAJUK).
 DAP implantation commission
 Justice
 Urban planners
 Environmental experts

Thank You!