Transcript The study of how decision makers incorporate climate

Adapting to Climate Change &
Environmental Pressures:
Adaptation of Public Policy
Nancy Olewiler
Public Policy Program
Simon Fraser University
Taming that Monster Under the Bed: Exploring Critical
Relationships between Supply Chains and the Environment
June 10, 2008
1
Is nature becoming more
volatile?
2
Role of changing climate risk

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Small changes in mean or
extremes can yield large
changes in risk
Infrastructure sensitive to

Rate of climate change

Changes in mean climate
(weathering)

Changes in extremes
(thresholds/failure)

Adaptive capacity (ability
to plan, respond, design,
maintain)
[Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide & T. Peterson
for the graphics]
3
Impacts of climate change
magnified by:

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Larger population & population density &
size of the economy
Building in high risk areas (flood plains)
Lack of awareness, access to information,
and understanding of climate impacts
Too much insurance, sense of entitlement
Regulatory, legislative barriers
Lack of tools or willingness to integrate
knowledge with actions, BAU thinking
Interest group pressures
4
Supply chain vulnerabilities to
climate change
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Transportation infrastructure:
roads, rail lines, ports: damage
from sea-level rise, erosion,
flooding, land slides, and
temperature extremes affecting
road surfaces
Changes in productivity from
natural resource sectors: forests,
agriculture, mining due to
temperature and precipitation (too
much/too little): shorter ice road
and drilling seasons, 
agricultural yields, pine beetle
devastation
Fires impeding transportation,
destroying infrastructure and
communities
5
Infrastructure life & climate
impacts coincide

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Long life & high value
of Canadian capital
stock
How to avoid costly
retrofits or
replacement of
infrastructure?
Think about what
type of investment
now
(From IPCC 2007, WG2-Chapter 15—slide
from L. Mortsch)
6
Is the path forward clear?
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“There is no scientific basis
for claims that escalating
disaster costs is the result
of anything other than
increasing societal
vulnerability” (Pielke Jr.,
2005 (Science))
“Society makes the
assumption that technology
and management can
control nature and protect
people” (Mileti, 1999;
Disasters by Design)
Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide quotes.

Risk models need to
change; cannot extrapolate
from past experience
(MunichRe)
“We need to better
understand the
compounding roles of
increasing vulnerability and
climate change” (Mills,
2005 (Science))

More people in harm’s
way vs. ongoing societal
responses that should
have compensated for this
(Kunkel et al., 1999,
BAMS)
7
Issues and questions that arise
from the data and projections

How will the climate change?
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Do we have useful climate models or scenarios?
Are weather predictions & warnings adequate?
How will changing climate affect my community:
city, province, country?
Is disaster planning & management adequate?
Do our land uses, infrastructure maintenance and
development take into account climate change?
Do we have the expertise and capacity (human and
financial) to address climate change?
What is the role & responsibility of government vs.
private sector vs. people?
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Challenges: reasons to do
nothing!

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“I’ll deal with climate
change when I see it
happening – isn’t it
good for Canada to be
warmer!”
“I’ll deal with climate
change when you can
tell me exactly what I
need to plan for”
“I don’t think global
warming/climate
change will affect my
community”
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“I’ll wait until I see
other communities
preparing for climate
change”
“I don’t have time or
money or information
to deal with climate
change right now”
“I don’t have enough
authority to plan for
climate change”
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Challenges: confusion between
mitigation and adaptation

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Shouldn’t public policy focus on
reducing GHG emissions (mitigation)
rather than on adaptation to climate
change?
Does this mean we give up and simply
respond to whatever climate does to
us?
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Ways to address the challenges

First, find a name for what you are
doing
11
Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the cartoon
A
Vulnerability
reduced
[AMSD]
[adaptive emissions]
Expanded use of air
conditioners, aquaculture and
sea walls
Drought preparedness through
demand side management;
expanded application of recycling
and conservation principles
M
Emissions increased
Emissions reduced
Forest plantations for
carbon sequestration;
expansion of large
hydro development
Rapid deforestation for land use
change (agriculture, mining, etc.)
[unsustainable]
[new vulnerabilities]
Vulnerability
increased
A framework to link Adaptation (A) & Mitigation (M)
[Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the diagram]
What is needed to address
adaptation problems

Pull together resources (human, $) using a
interdisciplinary team approach that includes
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Best available science
Best available engineering and technology and planning
Economic and business acumen to ensure we weigh costs
& benefits & achieve targets at minimum cost
Determination of the vulnerabilities: personal,
business, community: risk assessment = vital
Leaders who look beyond the next election cycle
An informed and engaged public
Partnerships with other jurisdictions/organizations
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Ways to avoid paralysis

Start analysis of local vulnerabilities
because:

Many policy levers already exist, e.g.
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Zoning & land use
Infrastructure maintenance & investment
Coincide with energy efficiency, GHG mitigation
Education and buy in of community is easier
when make concrete link to local impacts
Likely minimizes costs of achieving targets
because will be closer link between problem &
solution (one size does not fit all)
Look for partners who can help
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A framework for action
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Define the problems you can tackle
Due diligence:
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Information on best practices/outcomes
Design policy options in consultation with
experts, community, business, and other
stakeholders
Evaluate options against criteria using best
available information
Implement options with monitoring of their
performance
15
Best practices
16
Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide
Example of best practices

King County, Washington: “Preparing for
Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local,
Regional, and State Governments”

By Center for Science in the Earth System (The Climate Impacts
Group), Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and
Ocean, University of Washington & King County, Washington

A pragmatic step-by-step guide for local
& regional governments
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King County: suggested steps
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Scope the Climate Change Impacts to Your Major Sectors
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Collect and Review Important Climate Information
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Build and Maintain Support to Prepare for Climate Change
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Identify or Cultivate a “Champion” for Preparedness
Identify and Understand Your Audience for Outreach
Develop a Preparedness Message
Spread the Message
Build Your Climate Change Preparedness Team
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How is Climate Expected to Change in Your Region?
What are the Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Your Region?
How to Select Members and a leader for Your Team
Prepare the Team’s Agenda
Conduct a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
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Review and Supplement Important Climate Information
Conduct Your Climate Sensitivity Analysis
Evaluate Adaptive Capacity for Systems in Your Planning Areas
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King County steps continued
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Conduct a Climate Change Risk Assessment
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Set Preparedness Goals and Develop Your Preparedness Plan
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Establish a Vision and Guiding Principles for a Climate Resilient
Community along with Preparedness Goals
Identify Potential Preparedness Actions
Assess your Actions against Criteria (effectiveness, efficiency,
robustness under scenarios, equity, precautionary principle, flexibility)
Select and Prioritize Preparedness Actions
Implement Your Preparedness Plan
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Assess Your Climate Change Risks
Establish Your List of Priority Planning Areas
Ensure that You Have the Right Implementation Tools
Manage Uncertainty and Risk
Measure Your Progress, Review your Assumptions, and Update
Your Plan
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Illustration of template for risk
& policy analysis
Planning
area
Current
and
expected
stress
Climate
change
impacts on
system
Consequences
of impact
High (H)
Medium
(M)
Low (L)
Probability
of impact
Estimate
of risk to
the
system
Road
operation &
maintenance
Pavement
buckling
on asphalt
due to
extreme
heat
events
More road
maintenance
required
more often
M-H:
Potholes
affect public
safety, road
maintenance
costs, travel
restrictions, 
costs of
goods, may
affect 55% of
city’s roads
High:
more
extreme
heat
events
expected
M-H:
Adaptation
options
Search for
assessment more
for all risks
resilient
and
materials
expected
Ban heavy
outcomes
vehicles
20
Canadian initiatives: planning
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Westbank, BC has included climate change in their
Landscape Unit Water Management Plan
The town of Vanderhoof, BC is engaged in a
vulnerability assessment pilot project
Alberta’s Water for Life Strategy addresses climate
change impacts in areas that are currently waterstressed
British Columbia’s Future Forests Ecosystem
Initiative incorporates climate change adaptation
into forest management.
Research and networking have been supported
through a range of federal, provincial and territorial
programs.
21
MORE TALK THAN ACTION……..
City of Richmond Climate Change
Response
Thanks to Margot Daykin for the slide
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Canadian initiatives: policies
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Municipalities along the Quebec eastern North
Shore have introduced regulations to limit
development in zones vulnerable to coastal erosion
and flooding.
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Greater use of water meters to reduce water
consumption in cities & irrigation districts (e.g.,
Kelowna, Sudbury, Moncton, BC’s WaterSmart plan
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Smog and heat-health warning systems have been
implemented in Toronto and Montréal.
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New Brunswick’s Coastal Areas Protection Policy
establishes set-backs for permanent structures.
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Example: Manitoba Actions
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Red River Floodway expanded from 1 in 90 to 1 in
700 year flood
Integrated Watershed Management Planning
Northern Winter Roads, relocated from ice
crossings to land for safety and sustainability
East Side Lake Winnipeg Land Planning, traditional
knowledge to inform adaptive decision making
Emergency Measures Office, municipal emergency
management plans
Provincial Land Use Planning Policies updated to
include provisions for adaptation
Thanks to Neil Cunningham for the slide information.
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Manitoba Overland flood protection
Existing
Upgraded to 1 in 700 yr.
Blue (Surface and overland),
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Brown (Basement and sewer)
Thanks to Neil Cunningham for the slide
Climate adaptation policy:
lessons learned…so far…
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Establish integrative office with
representation from across
ministries/agencies (with
funding and powers and
education role – within
bureaucracy and outreach)
Need to strengthen capacity in
all related agencies
Strategic planning & early
action vital to minimize costs
Early & continued public and
business engagement with
local jurisdictions to help set
priorities; shared governance
better than top down decrees;
partnerships important
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Articulate limitations to
stakeholders so don’t ramp up
expectations
Look for synergies with
development activities – build
better & smarter
Tough to get attention due to
competing demands for time & $
Decision making is complex (at
any level): e.g., inconsistent
policy and regulations
Need long-term planning, not
one-off projects; attach to a
sustainability plan
Establish liability for poor
planning; accountability
framework for public and private
entities
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For information on ACT email:
[email protected]
Photos from Don Haley & Natural Resources Canada