Transcript presentat - Green Budget Europe

NUIG Climate Congress 2016
Tue 5 April, Galway
James Nix, Director of Green Budget Europe
www.green-budget.eu
[email protected]
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The headline news
Ireland 2nd worst in Europe for climate change emissions with a 10%
overshoot expected by 2020
Ireland in context:
Ireland is 10% off target when it comes to meeting its 2020
commitment, second only to Luxembourg (which is projected to miss
its 2020 commitment by 21%, but Luxembourg says updated figures
will show this number to be radically lower, meaning Ireland could be in
the reckoning for worst in Europe)
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Ireland is set to fail its 2020 climate target by 10%...
Q: where is Ireland falling down?
Answer: transport & agriculture
The EU Commissions says that:
• Ireland is “not on track” mainly due to “an anticipated increase of 19% in
transport emissions between 2013 and 2020 and a 2% increase during the
same period from agriculture”,
• “Issues related to the availability of public transport in Dublin and increasing
congestion further complicate the achievement of greenhouse gas emission
reduction targets”, and
• “In transport, the proportion of renewable energy was 5.2 % in 2014, only
about half the 2020 target”.
Source: Country Report for Ireland, Feb 2016 (issued under the
3
European Semester)
And agriculture?
Agriculture “is particularly relevant as
it is the biggest contributor to
greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland
(32 % of the total), in sharp contrast
to the EU average (12 % of the total)”
The Commission notes the passage of
the Climate Action and Low Carbon
Development Act 2015...
4
Can the Climate Change law of Dec 2015 help?
“Ministers”, the Commission notes:
• “will have up to 18 months and 24 months from enactment to submit
... key plans to government”.
• “In addition, the Act does not set a deadline for government to
approve the plans in their original or modified form”.
• The Act “also does not set overall emission reduction targets by
certain dates or lay down the expected contributions of key sectors”
• Sectors’ contributions are “to be fully established in the national and
sectoral plans”
Conclusion: the framework of the Act can help – but effort-sharing
remains undecided, as does the pace of reform
5
So the Act brings us right back to the key
challenges in transport & agriculture...
• Let’s discuss transport first; then agriculture
• … and let’s do so seeking holistic solutions
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Air pollution breaches: Ireland is not meeting the NEC Directive
(partly due to NOx from diesel cars); vital to adopt holistic solutions
Post Dieselgate
adjustment needed
which will up noncompliance by IE; see
EPA
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Source: EPA
Diesel
cars
made up
73% of
new Irish
car sales
in 2014
Source: the
European
Carmakers’
Association,
ACEA
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Solutions
• Electric buses: London already has
more hybrid electric buses (1,200)
that the entire Dublin Bus fleet
(1,000) and has also recently
deployed full electric buses
• Full electric coaches are now also
available
• Car-sharing programmes using
electric cars
Finance: the transition to more sustainable transport
can be funded by closing Ireland’s 10c gap between
diesel & petrol tax, phasing it out over 2 to 3 years
9
Another NEC breach: Volatile Organic Compounds
(VOCs); mainly due to agri (manure volume attributable to cattle no.’s)
10
Contrast agriculture & energy...
• While progress is halting at times, an energy
transition is underway
• The data suggests we also need a food
transition
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Agriculture accounts for more than 30% of Ireland’s climate
change emissions
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Source: EEA and Eurostat
Less than 1% and falling: percentage of Irish farms which are organic
Ireland is
25th out
of 28
Member
States
13 2015
Source: Eurostat
Ireland is 26th of 28 based on land area farmed organically as a
percentage of total area in use for agriculture
Source: Eurostat 2016
14
Beef, dairy & not so much diversity: 92% of organic land is
under grass, with a low level of crops / tillage / fruit & veg
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Source: Eurostat
Number of organic processors by sub-sector, 2014
Source: Eurostat
Denmark
(5.6m pop.)
Ireland
(4.6m pop.)
Slovenia
(2.1m pop.)
Finland
(5.4m pop.)
Norway
(5.1m pop.)
Meat
141
28
15
96
77
Fish / Seafood
26
25
0
8
14
Fruit & Veg
69
11
22
78
51
Oils / Fats
14
3
8
16
2
Dairy
72
10
6
34
45
Grain milling
21
4
13
84
27
Baking
96
10
27
90
58
Other
194
22
243
81
67
Animal feed
-
3
3
44
10
Total
633
116
337
531
351
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Farm income went backwards in Ireland, 2000 to 2010
Member State
2000 – 05 average
2005 – 10 average
Czech Republic
79.4
102.7
Denmark
101.0
95.9
Estonia
68.0
113.5
Ireland
89.2
82.9
Croatia
100.0
119.9
Austria
97.3
111.7
Slovenia
77.9
99.3
Slovakia
97.7
110.8
Finland
96.0
107.4
Sweden
94.7
118.4
100% = 2005 average
Norway
118.9
110.8
Source: Eurostat
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Ireland being 3rd or 4th last in EU for organic prompts a query Is there a link between MSs with low average farm incomes and
failing to capitalise on the expanding, and higher margin, market
for organic produce? A more rigorous review of the data is required
to bottom out this question.
However, the policy prescription to farmers in Ireland, namely to
pile into the commodity milk market, where:
• farmers are price takers based on global commodity availability
(now c. 23 cents per litre, with slacking demand, e.g. from Asia), &
• continued government promotion of volume instead of obtaining
higher value & differentiated produce (e.g. organics)
points to a government policy which places average farm incomes
at high price risk.
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Ireland also
struggling on
ammonia, with
agriculture
accounting for
98% such
emissions
Source: Eurostat
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Across the EU there has been a 45% drop in farmland birds since 1990
Sources: EBCC , RSPB , BirdLife, Statistics
Netherlands & Eurostat
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Irish data
mirrors
the EU
picture
Source:
BirdWatch
Ireland
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Just as we started to make life untenable
for most farmland birds from the 1970s...
Irish government action & inaction is orienting transport and agriculture to
help make life untenable for humans, while knowing that Ireland stands some
steps behind the front line consequences.
Worse, the fallout from Irish government regression and obstructiveness isn’t
confined to its own territory:
• Ireland is actively lobbying at European level to delay, fudge and weaken
post 2020 climate action, particularly on agriculture and, by extension,
transport, as well as other areas subject to EU effort-sharing.
• Weaker EU action has a global impact over time.
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Questions / discussion
Thank you
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