Transcript ClimateCost Overview

ClimateCost:
The Full Costs of Climate Change
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ClimateCost
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7th Framework Programme (first call)
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Runs for 32 months, commenced in December 2008
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Research project, but with a strong policy orientation
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Multi-disciplinary research, linking climate scientists, impact and adaptation experts
and economists
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Covering mitigation, climate impact assessment and adaptation domains with
strong economic focus
Project team
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Stockholm Environment Institute Oxford, Tom Downing, Project Coordinator
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Paul Watkiss, PWA, Research Coordinator
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Joint Research Centre, EC
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Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Denmark
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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
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University of Southampton (Soton), Southampton, UK
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Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy
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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
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Metroeconomica (Metro), Bath, UK
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Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (ICCS), Athens, Greece
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Katholieke Universiteit Leuven-Center of Economic Studies (KUL), Leuven, Belgium
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AEA Technology plc (AEA), Harwell, UK
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Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain
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Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin, Ireland
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London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, UK
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Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW), Bonn, Germany
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University of the Aegean (UoA), Athens, Greece
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University of East Anglia (UEA), Norwich, UK
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Charles University Environment Center (CUEC), Prague, Czech R.
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The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), Delhi, India
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Energy Research Institute (ERI), Beijing, China
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Université de Grenoble-2 (UG-2), Grenoble, France
Study aims
Analyses of economic costs of climate policy
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Assess impacts and economic effects of climate change – globally and by region
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Investigate mitigation policies and economic costs and benefits
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Undertake detailed analysis of economics of adaptation (Europe)
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Combines bottom up sectoral based models, CGEs and global IAMs
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Multiple lines of evidence - also allows iteration and validation
Theme 1: Impacts and Adaptation
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Assess physical impacts and economic costs of
climate
change at a sectoral level for Europe, China, India
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Use of bottom-up sectoral ‘impact assessment’ models, linked to economic costs of
climate change for current, short, longer-term – across scenarios / projections
Feed results / functional relationships into CGE models + economic IAMs
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Analysis of bottom-up adaptation costs and benefits within a framework of
uncertainty (‘adaptation assessment’)
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also providing adaptation information for CGE/IAM
Theme 2: Major events
Previous economic studies omit major and social contingent effects
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Study exploring potential economic effects
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Studies on major SLR
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Socially contingent (migration)
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High sensitivity (>4 º > 6º)
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Then testing in IAMs
Watkiss 2009, updated from Watkiss/Downing 2006
Theme 3: Mitigation and Co-benefits
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Updates to a suite of major European policy mitigation models
PRIMES, POLES, GEM-E3, PACE, WITCH
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Detailed mitigation cost analysis Europe, China, India
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Link to IAMs for global benefits
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Quantification of impacts of air quality co-benefits from mitigation
- noting these benefits are immediate and local
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Air quality modelling (GAINS – Europe/Asia), physical impacts and economic
benefits
Theme 4: Policy
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Run policy scenarios, alternative frameworks and metrics
(social cost carbon, cost-effectiveness, cost-benefit, etc)
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For Europe, China, India
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Economic costs of climate change, detailed and spatial
benefits and costs of mitigation, including co-benefits
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Europe – detailed analysis of costs and benefits of adaptation to provide information
to EC adaptation policy – as well as mitigation
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Global – analysis of mitigation policy scenarios with computerised general
equilibrium/integrated assessment models: PAGE, FUND, GEM-E3, WITCH-ICES
Key deliverables
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Within first year
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Sector reviews on impacts and adaptation with a focus on Europe and €
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Funded new development and major update of the PAGE model (PAGE09)
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Spring 2010. Detailed (bottom-up) impacts and economic costs for Europe
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Autumn 2010. Detailed (bottom-up) analysis of adaptation in Europe
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December 2010. Detailed costs for China and India, indicative adaptation costs
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Summer 2011. Integration and CGE/IAM policy runs
Contacts
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[email protected]
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[email protected]
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www.ClimateCost.eu