Transcript Convergent causes? - Northumbria University

VIOLENT CONFLICTS AND NATURAL DISASTERS:
SIMILAR OUTCOMES, CONVERGING CAUSES
AND LESSONS FROM HAITI
John Mutter* and Elisabeth King
The Earth Institute, Columbia University
*Dept Earth and Environmental Sciences, and School of
International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Violent conflicts and natural disasters bear many superficial
similarities. Yet, scholars have hardly analyzed the underlying
parallels between the two phenomena. We investigates the many
similarities between all stages of conflicts and disasters:
consequences, responses and causes. We argue that there is
enough in common that cross-disciplinary dialogue between
specialized fields of disasters and conflict – with different
frameworks, foci, and experiences – holds the promise that lessons
may be learned for scholars and policy-makers alike. The argument
is illustrated with the timely example of post-earthquake Haiti
where the tenets of peace building may do more to build Haiti’s
resilience than the norms of post-disaster recovery.
ARGUMENT & PLAN
• There are more comparable consequences,
responses and causes between disasters and
violent conflicts than are traditionally
acknowledged by specialized fields.
• There is enough in common that crossdisciplinary dialogue between what have been
specialized fields of natural disasters and violent
conflict – with often quite different foci – holds
the promise that critical lessons may be learned
for scholars and policy-makers.
SIMILAR CONSEQUENCES
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Mortality
Social and health impacts
Economic impacts
Environmental impacts
Threats to human security
SIMILARITIES IN RESPONSES
• Often little warning of both
• Humanitarian response to immediate needs of
survivors
• Efforts to reduce recurrence
• Responses reflect politics and societal power
dynamics
• Securitization of responses
• Militarization of responses
• R2P
CONVERGENT CAUSES?
• Conflicts drivers endogenous – political
actions.
• Disaster drivers exogenous – the natural
extreme.
• Conflicts literature -- proximate and
underlying causes.
• Proximate causes not critical.
• Underlying causes -- structural, political,
social and cultural.
• Role of environmental factors?
CONVERGENT CAUSES?
• Disaster studies in natural sciences focus
on exogenous (proximate) drivers -- risk
reduction through prediction and
preparation.
• Social science studies of disasters
emphasize endogenous social vulnerability
of states and individuals.
• Social vulnerability in disaster studies
maps closely to ideas of underlying causes
in conflict.
CONVERGENT CAUSES?
- POVERTY • Disaster mortality predicted well by development
status – factor at least 100.
• Magnitude of physical event weak predictor of
mortality.
• Mortality may peak in middle income countries with
rapidly developing urban centers -- Sichuan earthquake.
• Serious conflicts also far more likely in poor countries.
• Underlying cause are the main contributing factor.
…
• Far less clear in terms of economic consequences.
• Pre-existing social/economic disparities between
groups exaggerate.
CONVERGENT CAUSES?
-ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS? –
• Environmental degradation enhances disasters like
flooding and landslides.
• Environmental degradation leads to resource scarcity
and tensions – Darfur?
• Conflicts more common during positive phase of ENSO
• Disasters lead directly to scarcity and increase the risk
of conflict?
• Disasters can lead to cross-border migrations.
…..
• Climate change invigorate the hydrological cycle.
More consequential for poor societies and provide
stress mechanism that may be “threat multipliers” for
conflict.
HAITI?
• Deadliest earthquake disaster in modern
history?
• Poorest and most unequal in the Americas.
• Disaster Risk Reduction aimed at
proximate causes could not have been
successful.
• “Reconstruction” not an appropriate
approach.
• Haitian society needs to be re-built using
models derived from post-conflict peacebuilding and economic stimulus.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
• Disasters and conflicts are impediments to
development predominantly in poorer
countries.
• Proximate causes are secondary to
underlying in both cases.
• Peace-building strategies that address
underlying causes provide valuable lessons for
disaster recovery and mitigation.
• A research agenda to study common drivers
and linkages and the role of environment and
climate change is needed.