Transcript climate

Analysis of Vulnerability to
Climate Change
Maria Fernanda Zermoglio (SEI), Barbara Huddleston,
presented by Annie Roncerel, UNITAR
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Vulnerability
What is vulnerability?
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Vulnerability is the susceptibility of an exposure unit to harm which is
caused by a stress or shock.
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What is weather(climate)-related vulnerability?
Weather-related vulnerability is the susceptibility of an exposure unit to
harm caused by weather-related stresses or shocks.
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What is vulnerability to climate change?
Vulnerability to climate change is the susceptibility of an exposure unit to
harm caused by the consequences of long-term changes in weather
patterns.
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Why assessing vulnerability?
“The purpose of assessing vulnerability is
to be able to take appropriate actions to
reduce vulnerability before the potential
for damage becomes actual” (Anderson,
1995, p. 41)
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Why assess vulnerability to climate change?
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Because climate impacts do and will differ
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And because
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For different people/groups of people
For different sectors
In different areas
At different times
Other environmental, economic and social factors are different from one
place to another
Capacity to adapt differs; people’s responses will differ
What causes vulnerability?
Underlying
Causes
Poverty
Few skills or
assets
Lack of
diversity in
sources of
livelihood
Economic &
cultural
rigidities
No insurance
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Dynamic
Pressures
Macro-forces
Investment
patterns
Market
performance
Population growth
Urbanization
Environmental
degradation
Unsafe
Conditions
DISASTER
Fragile physical
environment
Dangerous locations
Vulnerable
infrastructure
Fragile local economy
Livelihoods at risk
Low income levels
Hazard
Trigger events
Storms
Flooding
Landslides
Drought
Inability to cope
What are climate change hazards?
Known hazardous impacts
 Increased uncertainty
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Greater variability and randomness in the occurrence of
natural climatic phenomena
Knowledge uncertainty -- we don't know everything about
the earth system and we can’t make completely accurate
scientific predictions about how it will behave or how
society will respond to changes
Who / What is at risk?
Livelihood groups
 Environmental elements
 Socio-economic systems
 Infrastructure
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Visualisation
Meteorological
and socioeconomic
databases
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Ability to “see”
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Who? Subsistence farmers
in the foothills
What? Increased frequency
of droughts
Where? Senqu River valley
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Seasonal calendar in Mali
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What actions are needed to reduce risk
and vulnerability?
Actions that manage risk
 Actions that strengthen resilience
 Actions that mitigate climate change
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Acting to address vulnerability to climate
change = ADAPTATION!
What’s the benefit of integrating mitigation
and adaptation?
 What’s ongoing that can be strengthened?
 What’s needed that is not yet being done ?
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Objectives of working sessions
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Deepen understanding of climate change and the
variety of impacts it may have
Explore implications of climate change for different
ecosystems and livelihood groups in specific
country settings
Identify actions that IFAD could promote to respond
to climate change consistent with already identified
strategic opportunities and ongoing country
programmmes
Challenges of climate change:
Four country cases
DROUGHT-PRONE REGIONS: WHERE COPING IS A WAY OF LIFE
 The Case of Northeastern Brazil
DRYLANDS: ADAPTATION IN WATER-SCARCE ENVIRONMENTS
 The Case of Jordan
SMALL ISLAND STATES: IS NATIONAL SURVIVAL AN OPTION?
 The Case of the Maldives
DESERTS: EXPLOITING THE ENERGY OF THE SUN
 The Case of Mauritania
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About the exercise
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We will divide into five working groups, with each one assigned to explore
vulnerabilities and response options for the five selected countries.
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You will have until 10:30 to prepare a working group report comprised of
two flipcharts.
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One chart should contain a handrawn map of the country that shows:
 current and future climate change hazards
 ecosystems
 vulnerable livelihood groups
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The other should contain a short list of bullet points, covering:
 strategic priorities of current IFAD programme in the country
 adaptive actions best suited to address climate change hazards and
vulnerabilities in the country
 match or mismatch between the two
 options for adjusting the IFAD country programme to incorporate
response to climate change
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What’s in your packets
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Powerpoint notes pages
Climate change brochure (see Table: Climate and
ecosystem interactions, pp. 10-11)
Figure: Effects of global warming on the earth system
Map of the country
General background notes on the country
List: Current IFAD programme priorities in the country
Table: Options for responding to climate change
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AND NOW
Join your country working group and begin!
Thank you
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