Transcript PPT - Environmental Science Institute

# 51
The Changing Debate on
Global Warming
Dr. Eric J. Barron
November 16, 2007
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The Changing Debate on
Global Warming
Eric J. Barron
Jackson School of Geosciences
Every credible scientist recognizes that
increases in greenhouse gases promote
warming
• Incoming solar energy (hot sun, short wavelengths) largely
pass through the atmosphere and heat the surface
• Earth’s surface radiates to space (cooler body, longer
wavelength)
• Gases like carbon dioxide selectively absorb longer
wavelengths – reradiate to space and back to the surface
• Without selective absorbers Earth is 5°F
• With selective absorbers Earth is 64°F
The Real Issue in the Debate
• How much will it warm – in response to humans adding
more greenhouse gases?
• How fast will it warm?
• How significant will be the impact?
The first two questions will likely remain uncertain for
decades.
So, for decision-makers the last question is key.
It is not just a science question.
It depends on what you value.
My debate with an Economist
Suppose I got a contract to cut down all
of the trees for lumber on the west side
of Austin. Good or bad?
My debate with an Economist
• Suppose I got a contract to cut down all of the trees
for lumber on the west side of Austin. Good or bad?
• GOOD – a product - brings in dollars; jobs bring in
dollars
My debate with an Economist
• Suppose I got a contract to cut down all of the trees
for lumber on the west side of Austin. Good or bad?
• GOOD – a product brings in dollars; jobs bring in
dollars
• WAIT – what about beauty, habitat, ecosystem
services (water)?
My debate with an Economist
• Suppose I got a contract to cut down all of the trees
for lumber on the west side of Austin. Good or bad?
• GOOD – a product brings in dollars; jobs bring in
dollars
• WAIT – what about beauty, habitat, ecosystem
services (clean water)?
• But in one generation people won’t know what they
have missed – it doesn’t have value
The Changing Debate on
Climate Change
What do scientists really believe
about global warming?
What are the predictions for the future?
What are the potential impacts?
What do climate experts say
about global warming?
Foundations
• Carbon dioxide is a selective absorber
• Greenhouse gases are increasing (due to
burning oil, coal and deforestation)
• Increased greenhouse gases promote
warming
• Draw down of gases will take centuries
• Aerosols have human sources
• Many aerosols promote cooling
• The planet has warmed 1°F in a century
1
Temperature Change °F
0.8
Temperature Change
0.6
0.4
The Smoking Gun
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
Billions of Metric Tons
CO2 Parts per Million by Volume (PPMV)
-0.6
380
360
CO2 Concentrations
340
320
1000 years of global CO2
and temperature change
300
280
260
8
6
Carbon Emissions
4
2
Land-use Change
Fossil-fuels
0
Year
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Global Land-Ocean Temperature Anomaly (°C)
Base Period = 1951-1980
0.6
Annual Mean
5-year Mean
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Year
J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo (NASA and Columbia University)
2001-2005 Mean Surface
Temperature Anomaly (°C)
Global Mean = 0.54
-2
-1.6
-1.2
-.8
-.4
-.2
.2
.4
.8
1.2
1.6
2.1
J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, and K. Lo (NASA and Columbia University)
Predictions that are
virtually certain
The stratosphere will cool.
Lower Stratosphere
(13-19 km) Cooling
Upper Troposphere
(8-13 km) Warming
Thickness of atmospheric
layers exaggerated for
clarity.
Lower Troposphere
(0-8 km) Slight Warming
Earth’s Surface
Warming
NASA
Predictions that are
very probable
• Surface temperature will increase:
• 0.5 to 2.0°C by 2050
• 1.5 to 4.5°C for a CO2 doubling
• 2.5°C most likely
• Global precipitation will increase
• Sea ice will retreat in Northern Hemisphere
• Arctic warming
Predictions that are very
probable
• Sea level will rise, 5 to 40
cm by 2050
• The effects of solar
variability will not be
significant over the next 50
years compared to those of
CO2
Predictions that are uncertain
•
•
•
•
Climate variability changes
Regional climate changes
Tropical storms
The next 25 years &
biosphere feedbacks
What do climate models
predict for the continental
U.S. from 2090 to 2100?
Summer Maximum & Winter
Minimum Temperature Change
Canadian Model 21st Century
Summer Maximum
Canadian Model 21st Century
+15°F
+15°F
+10°F
+10°F
+5°F
+5°F
0°F
0°F
-5°F
-5°F
Hadley Model 21st Century
Hadley Model 21st Century
Summer Maximum
Winter Minimum
+15°F
+15°F
+10°F
+10°F
+5°F
+5°F
0°F
0°F
-5°F
Winter Minimum
-5°F
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Precipitation Change
Canadian Model 21st Century
100%
75%
50%
25%
0
Observed
20th
Century
100%
-25%
75%
-50%
50%
-75%
25%
-100%
0
-25%
Hadley Model 21st Century
100%
-50%
75%
-75%
50%
-100%
25%
0
-25%
-50%
-75%
-100%
U.S. Global Change Research Program
What are the potential impacts
for ecosystems, water,
agriculture and health?
Ecosystem Models
Current Models
Tundra
Taiga/Tundra
Conifer Forest
Northeast Mixed Forest
Temperate Deciduous Forest
Southeast Mixed Forest
Tropical Broadleaf Forest
Savanna/Woodland
Shrub/Woodland
Grassland
Arid Lands
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Ecosystem
Models
Canadian Model
Hadley Model
Tundra
Taiga/Tundra
Conifer Forest
Northeast Mixed Forest
Temperate Deciduous Forest
Southeast Mixed Forest
Tropical Broadleaf Forest
Savanna/Woodland
Shrub/Woodland
Grassland
Arid Lands
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Projected Changes in Distribution
of Sugar Maple Trees
Even Hadley
model says no
sugar maples in
the U.S.
Iverson et al. 1999
July Heat Index Change
Canadian Model 21st Century
Hadley Model 21st Century
+25°F
+20°F
+15°F
+10°F
+5°F
0°F
B. Felzer, UCAR
Heat Mortality and Climate Change
180
120
160
115
140
120
Heat Index
Max Temperature
Deaths
110
105
100
100
80
95
60
90
40
85
20
80
0
75
Maximum Temperature (°F) or Max Heat Index
Number of Heat-related Deaths
Heat-related deaths in Chicago in July 1995
NOAA/NCDC
Vector-borne Disease
Reported Cases of Dengue 1980 - 1999
Texas:
64 Cases
Border States:
62,514 Cases
Mexico
HIH, Mexico; TDH; U.S. PHS
High Precipitation and “Flashy” Streams
Percentage of Total Change - % per 100 years
Observed changes in streamflow and precipitation (1939-1999)
20
15
10
5
0
-2.5
0
20
Light/Low
40
60
Moderate
80
100
Heavy/High
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Changes in Western Snowpack
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
20
Percentage Change from 1961 - 1990 Base
Percentage Change from 1961 - 1990 Base
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Projected Trends in the PDSI
21st Century Hadley Model
More
tendency
towards
drought
Trends
Palmer Drought
Severity Index / 100yr
Projected Trends in the PDSI
21st Century Canadian Model
More
tendency
towards
drought
Trends
Palmer Drought
Severity Index / 100yr
Corn Yields and Weather Events
Corn Yields in U.S. 1950 - 1999
140
Bushels per Acre
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1999
Year
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Projected Summer Sea Ice Change
Canadian Model: An ice-free Arctic summer
Current Sea Ice Extent
2030 Sea Ice Extent
2095 Sea Ice Extent
U.S. Global Change Research Program
The Changing Debate on
Global Warming
What do scientists really believe about
global warming?
What are the predictions for the future?
What are the potential impacts?
Uncertainty Grows with Time:
Emissions and Models
1.1oC to 6.4oC
(2oF to 11.5oF)
Air Quality and Climate Change
Every credible scientist recognizes that
increases in greenhouse gases
promotes warming
• The temperature of a planet is what it takes to have the
heat radiated from the planet balance the incoming
energy from the sun
-15 C
(5 F)
+18 C
(64 F)
Gases selectively absorb long wavelengths emitted from the earth and
Radiate this energy in all directions including toward the surface
Dr. Eric J. Barron
Eric J. Barron is Dean of the Jackson School of Geosciences at The University of
Texas at Austin, where he holds the Jackson Chair in Earth System Science. He
began a career in geology as an undergraduate at Florida State University. His
interest in geology and oceanography resulted in a master’s degree (1976) and a
doctorate (1980) in oceanography from the University of Miami.
In 2006, he joined The University of Texas at Austin as Dean of the recently formed
Jackson School of Geosciences. Barron’s research interests are in the areas of
climatology, numerical modeling, and Earth history. During his career, he has
worked diligently to promote the intersection of the geological sciences with the
atmospheric sciences and the field of earth system science.
Barron is a fellow of the American Geophysical Union, the American Meteorological
Society, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. In 2002,
he was named a fellow of the National Institute for Environmental Science at
Cambridge University. In 2003, he received the NASA Distinguished Public Service
Medal.