Transcript 21. Dowlatabadi - Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making

Too Much Coal?
Justin Ritchie & Hadi Dowlatabadi
Institute for Resources, Environment & Sustainability
UBC
CEDM Annual Meeting
May 2016
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Representative Conc. Pathways
RCP -- ΔT
8.5 – 4.9 °C
6.0 – 3.0 °C
4.5 – 2.4 °C
2.6 – 1.5 °C
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Cumulative CO2 from Gas, Oil & Coal
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Background
• IAMs of climate change are challenged by how to represent unknown
technical change. This has led to exogenously defined technical
change delivering:
• economic growth
• energy efficiency
• IAMs also had to deal with how the cost of new supply alternatives
would evolve over time. This has led to “learning by doing” models to
represent falling costs of new technology:
• Renewable resources
• Fossil fuel discovery, development & production
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https://www.google.ca/search?q=ford+model+t+factory&safe=off&client=safari&rls=en&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjOmeTqk9_MA
hUBwYMKHaC-D-8Q_AUIBygB&biw=1305&bih=816&dpr=2#q=ford+model+t+factory&safe=off&tbm=isch&tbs=isz:l&imgrc=5hwMo2hLP9-8KM%3A
Blurred lines
Geologic resources too expensive to exploitable
Known reserves exploitable at market competitive cost
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Assume a Learning Model?
A Simple Explanation: cheap & plentiful
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Energy Market Shares 1880-2100
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Coal Energy per Capita
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Coal Resources and Reserves Assessments
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Coal Resources and Reserves Assessments
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Actual learning since 1989
• As we have characterized more of the earth’s crust, we have found
more coal deposits.
• Even as experience increases, coal is growing more costly to produce.
Despite all time high coal prices, Rogner downgraded reserves by
~2/3rd from 1998 to 2014.
• That coal share is declining due to:
• Economic reasons: of high cost coal cf. low cost gas
• Environmental reasons: unrelated to climate change.
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Total Cumulative Primary Energy AR5
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Total Cumulative Primary Energy AR5
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Total Cumulative Primary Energy AR5
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Summary
• Fossil fuel reserves have been characterized using a Learning by
Extraction model in all* climate change IAMs.
• The models have not kept up with assessments.
• The LBE models bias fossil energy prices downward and
availability/use upward.
• RCP 6.0 is likely characteristic of an upper bound
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Summary
• Fossil fuel reserves have been characterized using a Learning by
Extraction model in all* climate change IAMs.
• The models have not kept up with assessments.
• The LBE models bias fossil energy prices downward and
availability/use upward.
• RCP 6.0 is likely characteristic of an upper bound
 Mitigation targets are likely to be less daunting and shadow carbon
prices lower than assessed in IAMs using IPCC family of scenarios.
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Too much coal, yes.
But are there enough cow bells?
http://www.france-voyage.com/francia-foto/muccha-razza-montbeliarde-1416.htm
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How Much Coal is There?
Cumulative CO2 from Gas, Oil & Coal
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