Transcript Prosperous Way Down: Task Forces

Prosperous Way Down:
Task Forces
Ortega, E.; Gusman Ferraz, J.M.; Bacic, M.;
Corazza, R., Fracalanza, P.S., Barreto, G.,
Campos, J.; Sabatier, M.A., Oncken, M.P., Azevedo, L.
Ecological Engineering Laboratory,
State University of Campinas,
Rua Josué de Castro, 40, 13.083-862
Campinas, SP, Brasil
E-mail: [email protected]
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INTRODUCTION
• 500 years ago, Portugal and Spain
made a project to recover areas
occupied by Arabs and Jews and also
to expand over the World. This
expansion generated deaths and
nature destruction but transferred a
lot of richness from America to
Europe.
• This process is now showing signals of
collapse (ecological, monetary and climate).
It is time to gather forces and promote a new
model, in a democratic and conscious way. 2
PWD “Task Forces”
• Howard and Elizabeth Odum suggested in the book
“A Prosperous Way Down: Principles and Policy”,
the organization of “task forces” to help people to
face-up the transition to an ecological economy.
• The organization of such groups involve identification,
integration and organization of persons with different
life experiences and different professional knowledge,
all of them conscious of the importance of Climate
Change Phenomena for Humanity´s Future and also
aware of the need a social change.
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OBJECTIVES
The task force should concentrate efforts on the
study of the following topics:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Systems Ecology;
Ecological and Social Resilience;
Modelling and Simulation Techniques;
Regional Planning;
New kinds of extension services.
The Task Force should integrate this
knowledge and mobilize society.
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THEORY / PRACTICE
• We assume that the perception of a serious
ecological-economical problem can promote
the up-rise of a task force. The group should
develop a continuous open-minded feedback
to review its objectives and improve its
organization and methods.
• This approach is being used at the State
University of Campinas in order to help the
local water basin administration because
there is a problem of water scarcity that is
the result of many years of predatory
occupation for the sole benefit of colonial
metropolis and their local supporters.
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Exergy intensity
(transformity)
of biosphere´s
resources
Social feedback
of university
Transformities distribution
along the biosphere stocks using
the three external exergy inflows
(solar radiation, gravity force,
geothermal uplift)
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http://www.ecodebate.com.br/foto/120518jeda.png
Thousands of millions of people
World population from 8000 B.C. – 2100 A.C.
Homeostasis
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Technology
http://econosystemics.com/?p=9
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9
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N
Q
*
J
JR K*JR*Q
K8*Q
*
HT Odum
Growth, climax, decline
and recovering
TWOSOURCE model equations:
K3 = K1 - K2
K7 = K5 - K6
JR= J/(1+K*Q)
DN= K4*N*Q
DQ= K7*N*Q + K3*JR*Q - K8*Q
The system returns to homeostasis!
http://www.unicamp.br/fea/ortega/M&S/en/models/twoSources.html
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In “Resilient School Leaders”, Jerry L. Patterson and Paul Kelleher
presented a hysteresis plot for strongly impacted systems.
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http://www.ascd.org/publications/books/104003/chapters/A-Deeper-Meaning-of-Resilience.aspx
Mark T. Brown shows native forests recovery data in Florida, US, with
and without human help. Ecological Engineering 24 (2005) 309–329
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PROBLEM
• Usually, when governments,
enterprises and population
become aware of the
dangerous role of Climate
Change they initially neglect
the fact.
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A dramatic change in the environment or the
announcement of a new and very important vital fact
Positive
attitude
False optimism
Phase 1
Gratifynig solution
Information shock
Phase 4
Denial
Integration
Commitment
Emotional state
and productivity
Pesimism
Loss of
expectatives
Phase 2
Phase 3
Inquietude
Resistance
Negative
attitude
Well-informed optimism
Danger
zone
Understanding,
Quest and
discovering
Hope based on facts appraisal
Responsabilty
Time
Adapted from Programa ExE, Barcelona, Spain, 2013.
http://programaexe.org/si-yo-soy-un-agente-del-cambio/?lang=ca
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PROPOSAL
• This problem can be overcome if these
institutions receive appropriate
information about how to reduce the
economy and, at the same time,
recovering ecology and generating labor
using hybrid ecological-economical
alternatives. It is the role of a task force!
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