Transcript GHGs - Asia Economic Forum

Climate Change: Threats and
Opportunities to Sustainable
Development
From Regional Context and Outcomes of Cop-15
By Khim Lay, Assistant Country Director and Team Leader
Environment and Energy Unit, UNDP Cambodia
20-21 January 2010
Outline
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Climate Change Basic: Real or Note, Causes and
Impacts
Climate Change Vulnerability at regional level
(Southeast Asia)
Climate Change Impacts on Human
Development and Poverty Reduction
Global Solutions: Outcomes of Cop 15:
Challenges and Opportunities
Proposed recommendations: Avoid dangerous
climate change and building national readiness
Climate Change?
SUN
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
INFRARED
RADIATION
GHGs
GHGs
EARTH
3
Climate Change and Ozone Layer
Layer of GHGs is about 8-10 km
from earth surface while ozone
layer is 10-50 km from earth
surface.
GHGs: CO2, Methane and Ozone
Ozone: Oxygen layer consists of
oxygen atoms, oxygen gas and
ozone gas.
Global warming will lead to a
weaker Oxon layer
Over Antarctica, the Ozone hole
is three times the size of the
United States
Weather
Climate
Day
Average weather over a period of
time ranging from months to
thousand/millions of years.
Can
Cannot be perceived – needs science.
Concerns the status of the entire Earth
system, (atmosphere, land, oceans,
snow, ice and living things)
to day status and (short term) changes
in the status of the atmosphere in terms of
meteorological parameters: rainfall,
temperatures, pressure, etc.
be perceived by people (bad, good,
cold, warm, rainy, extremes - heat waves,
downpours, cold spells)
Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.
Climate Change Is Real or Not?
Rising Temperatures
Changes in:
- Precipitation & soil evaporation
- Sea level
- Frequency & intensity of extreme events
- Ecosystem distribution & composition
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Causes of Climate Change
Increase in Green House Gases
mainly due to human activities such
as:
• Burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) to
generate energy
• Land use change and deforestation
This leads to Greenhouse Effect – increase
in GHGs in atmosphere preventing heat
to escape into the space, keeping the
earth warmer
Not just an Environmental Issue –
but also Development Issue
Less predictability in
crop yield, changing
irrigation demand,
growing risk of pest
infestations
PUBLIC
HEALTH
Variability in water
supply, quality and
distribution. More
competition and crossborder conflicts over
water resources
AGRICULTURE
Increasing incidents of
infectious, water-borne
and vector-borne
diseases, heat stress &
mortality, additional
public health costs
WATER
RESOURC
ES
Erosion,
inundation,
salinisation,
stress marshes,
wetlands
COASTAL
SYSTEMS
Loss of habitat,
species and
protective
ecosystems,
changes in forest
composition,
migratory shifts
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
Social stresses, economic losses,
increased poverty, Unsustainable
Growth
Economic Implications
• Effects are cumulative, irreversible and global
• Inverse relationship between vulnerability and
responsibility
• Unequal impact - the poorest people especially at the
local community affected the earliest and most
• Significant socio-economic implications
Cost of inaction – estimates vary:
Cost of inaction estimates
By:
5-20% of global GDP
Stern Review, 2006
1-5% global GDP for 4 C warming (more for
developing countries)
IPCC, 2007
6.7% of GDP in four SE Asia countries
ADB, 2009
Relevance to MDGs
MDG Goals
Examples of phenomena aggravated by Climate
Change
Food insecurity, infrastructure loss, reduced
agriculture productivity, employment and economic
growth
Loss of livelihood assets, displacement/migration,
cut back access to education
Natural resources depletion, reduced agriculture
productivity, etc.  additional burdens for women
Increased vector-borne diseases, heat-related
mortality, declining quantity and quality of water
supply
Negative impact on quality and productivity of
natural resources and ecosystems
Climate change as a global phenomenon calls for a
Source: http://www.undp.org/climatechange/
collective response
Composition of Vulnerability
Severe climatic
events; floods;
drought; sea level rise
Population density;
extent of protected area
Level of CC
Vulnerability
Lack of Adaptive Capacity
Socio-economic factors: Human Development,
poverty, inequality, technology & infrastructure: power
supply, irrigation, road, communication, …
Adapted from EEPSEA 2009
Human and Ecological Sensitivity Map
Multiple Climate Hazard Map
Adaptive Capacity Map
Climate Change Vulnerability Map
Source: Reproduced with permission from EEPSEA. Vulnerability as composite of exposure to climatic hazards,
sensitivity to the hazards, and adaptive capacity
Outcomes of Copenhagen Cop 15
• Seal the deal was not achieved
• Copenhagen Accord- political statement not a
legal binding document
• Request all countries to associate with it by Feb
2010
• Request for further negotiation to transform it to
become a legal biding document
• Request developed countries to set quantified
economy-wide emission targets in annex I and
developing countries to set nationally
appropriate mitigation actions in annex II.
Contents of the Copenhagen Accord
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Recognize CC is one of the greatest challenges of our time,
calling for strong political will in accordance with the principle of
common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities
• Recognizing the scientific view that the increase in global
temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius, on the basis of
equity and in the context of sustainable development
• Call for international cooperation in achieving the hold of
increase of 2 degree Celsius to avoid negative consequences on
efforts of social and economic development and poverty
eradication of developing countries.
• Recognize the development of a low-emission development
strategy is indispensable to sustainable development.
• Adaptation is a challenge faced by all countries. Enhanced action
and international cooperation on adaptation is urgently required
Contents of the Copenhagen Accord (cont.)
• Agree that developed countries shall provide adequate,
predictable and sustainable financial resources, technology
and capacity-building
• Recognize the crucial role of reducing emission from
deforestation and forest degradation and the need to
enhance removals of greenhouse gas emission by forests
• Agree on the need to provide positive incentives to such
actions through the immediate establishment of a
mechanism including REDD-plus, to enable the mobilization
of financial resources from developed countries
• Decide to pursue various approaches, including
opportunities to use markets, to enhance the costeffectiveness of, and to promote mitigation actions.
Contents of the Copenhagen Accord (cont.)
• Scaled up, new and additional funding shall be provided to developing
countries
• The collective commitment by developed countries is to provide new and
additional resources, including forestry and investments of USD 30 billion
for the period 2010 . 2012
• Developed countries commit to mobilize 100 billion dollars a year by 2020
to address the needs of developing countries.
• A High Level Panel will be established to study the contribution of the
potential sources of revenue,
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Decide that the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund shall be established
• Decide to establish a Technology Mechanism to accelerate technology
development and transfer
• Call for an assessment of the implementation of this Accord to be
completed by 2015
We must avoid dangerous climate change
-Reducing the demand on fuel:
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Use fusil efficiently,
Save energy,
Promote energy efficiency the building
Clean development mechanism
Controlling land use change and deforestation
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Making forest sustainably managed and used including forest
plantation
Conserving ecosystem and managing protected areas to enhance
and conserve carbon stock (REDD plus)
Reducing dependency on wood energy and promoting renewable
energy technologies
Making agricultural land use more productive
Controlling big land use change and making land use more
sustainable to reduce pressures on forest land
National Readiness to promote Reduction Emission from
Deforestation and Degradation (REDD)
Building National Readiness by 2015 and beyond
1. Right public perceptions on CC issues
2. Right policy and plans
3. Right institutional set up, coordination and effective
international and regional cooperation
4. Right programme and decision on investment
5. Building stronger resilience infrastructure and
facility
6. Improving knowledge on science and technologies
through formal education, research, sharing and
dialogues and technology transfers
7. Policy performance evaluation and lessons learned
“Your planet needs you”
UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon
THANK YOU!