Transcript Integrative Risk Management - Resilient Cities

Integrative Risk Management
– A Holistic Approach
Walter J. Ammann, Global Risk Forum GRF Davos
ICLEI Bonn
www.grforum.org
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
1
GRF DAVOS: 3 PILLARS
IDRC
RISK ACADEMY
RISKPLANET
Biennial IDRC Davos
Conferences
(4thIDRC Davos
2012, 26-30 Aug
2012, Davos,
Switzerland)
Think Tank,
Knowledge Management
Training Courses
R&D
Public Awareness
web based networking
platform
IJDRR (Elsevier/ GRF)
E-journal (Good practice)
Open and closed
circles for individuals
and organisations
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Good practice
exchange
Walter J. Ammann
2
IRM – KEY QUESTIONS
How safe is safe enough?
What is
acceptable to
happen?
What can
happen?
Hazard analysis (hazard
intensity and exposure
analysis, vulnerability,
Scenarios important
Risk Analysis
What is an accepted
safety level?
(Protection goals,
acceptable risk levels)
What has to be done?
Risk Assessment
Measures to be taken
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
3
THE TWINS IN URBAN ENVIRONMENT - RISKS
AND OPPORTUNITIES
“A ship is safe in harbor, but
that's not what ships are
for.”
(William Shedd)
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
4
RISKS – WHAT CAN HAPPEN?
Values exposed to hazards
Damage potential
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
5
RISK
Processes
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
6
RISK
Values exposed to hazards
Damage potential
Processes
RISK
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
7
VALUES EXPOSED TO HAZARDS
Damage Potential (what can be
affected?)
• Human lives and health
• Live-stock (urbanisation)
• Critical Infrastructures and Services
(Hospitals, schools, transportation,
energy, food, water, waste-water, etc.)
Risk
• Communication (IT infrastructure)
Potential
Process
• Production (Industry)
• Image, reputation
• etc.
• Etc
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
8
Damage
potential
(assets)
(MATHEMATICAL) DEFINITION OF RISK
RISK
=
Hazard
Climate Change
will increase the
frequency and
intensity
x
Values at Risk
Humans,
Animals, Assets,
Infrastructures,
Services,
Environment
x
Vulnerability
All values are
vulnerable.
Vulnerability can
be reduced with
measures
Resilience
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
9
EXPOSURE ANALYSIS – HAZARD MAPS
national
local
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
10
POLLUTION, HEALTH, CLIMATE CHANGE,
• Increasing susceptibility to diseases, epidemics etc.
• Combination of high temperatures and water and air
pollution in urbanized areas often leads to increased
illnesses, respiratory problems, allergies etc.
 Extreme atmospheric situations (e.g. heat waves)
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
11
GARBAGE/RUBBISH, - HEALTH ISSUES
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
12
CASCADING DISASTERS
Before March 11
Earthquake
Tsunami
Aftershocks
Economy
(Nikkei Index)
Fires
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Nuclear
Radiation
Walter J. Ammann
13
Technology
DEFINITION - NATECH RISKS
• Technological risks and any
subsequent risks that are triggered
or made worse by the impact of
natural hazards.
• NATECH = NAtural hazards
triggering TECHnological disasters
• With heavy impact on environment
- “TechNat” sometimes more
appropriate
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
14
possible
Technical
very rare
rare
Other
Natural
improbable
Probability
frequent
RISK MANAGEMENT (RISK MATRIX)
insignificant
small
perceptible
critical
catastrophic
IMPACT
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
15
IRM – KEY QUESTIONS
How safe is safe enough?
What is
acceptable to
happen?
What can
happen?
Hazard analysis (hazard
intensity and exposure
analysis, vulnerability,
Scenarios important
Risk Analysis
What is an accepted
safety level?
(Protection goals,
acceptable risk levels)
What has to be done?
Risk Assessment
Measures to be taken
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
16
COST EFFECTIVENESS OF MEASURES
800
5
Cost
Total cost
700
600
0
1
500
2
4
3
400
Measures
300
Optimum
Damage costs
200
100
0
0
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
5
10
15
20
25
30
Walter J. Ammann
17
35
Risk reduction/Security
IRM - RISK REDUCTION & DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Integrative Risk Management IRM
concentrates
equally on all phases of the risk circle - on prevention,
intervention and recovery
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
18
INTEGRATIVE RISK AND DISASTER
MANAGEMENT: FLOODING
Meteorologie
Hydrological Risks
Flood Risks
Catchment
Damage Potential
River
Improve
Vulnerability
Retention in
„The benefits of prevention are not
Catchment
Technical
tangible; theyMeasures
are the disasters that
Area
Land-use
did not happen
Crisis Management
Planning
Kofi Annan, former UN SG
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Damage
Emergency Planning
Walter J. Ammann
19
IRM - RISK REDUCTION & DISASTER MANAGEMENT
Integrative Risk Management IRM
concentrates
equally on all phases of the risk circle - on prevention,
intervention and recovery
insurance
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Relief, Response
Emergency management
Walter J. Ammann
Business Continuity management
20
THE HUMAN FACTOR - RESILIENCE
Damage as a result of human
actions and behaviour
Timely and appropriate
intervention influences extent of
damage and human behaviour
Robustness- redundancy –
resilience: A resilient system
helps to recover faster and to
keep secondary damage
contained
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
21
21
RISK PORTFOLIO – PERIODIC REVIEW
1999
Damage potential
Risks
2003
2007
Strategic Controlling
Periodic Review of the Risk Matrix
Efficiency of Measures
Maintenance of protection measures
Example: Dubai
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
22
1ère Partie
RISK COMMUNICATION – RISK DIALOGUE
•
•
•
•
Awareness rising
Public- private partnership
Capacity building
People getting prepared for a crisis
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
23
MAKING CITIES RESILIENT – 10 ESSENTIALS
• Resilience increase is key
– Vulnerability reduction
– Redundancies
• Climate Change (intensity, frequency, hazard patterns:
diseases, allergies, heat waves, etc)
• Harmonize CCA and DRR
• Science: resilience indicators (performance based
planning)
ICLEI Bonn
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
24
FROM THOUGHTS TO ACTION!
Vision without action – a day-dream
Action without vision – a nightmare
Jan Egeland, Kobe 2005
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
ATTENTION!
[email protected]
CONTACT INFORMATION
Global Risk Forum GRF Davos
Promenade 35
CH-7270 Davos
Phone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600
Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 1610
[email protected]
ICLEI Bonn
www.grforum.org
13 – 15 May 2012
Walter J. Ammann
25