Transcript Reid Ewing - Center for Transportation Excellence

Key Components of a Green
Transportation Measure
Reid Ewing
Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning
University of Utah
www.support.smartgrowthamerica.o
rg/growing_cooler
Climate Change Is the Ultimate
Green Issue
Chapter 3
Climate Change Impacts at 2 to 3°C

More than 1/3 of species at risk of extinction
(corals, polar bears…)



Amazon rainforest & Great Lakes ecosystem at
risk of collapse
Hundreds of millions displaced from coastal
areas, at risk of hunger
Partial deglaciation of Greenland Ice Sheet
expected to begin: sea level to increase 4-6
meters over centuries to millennia
Global Warming Fingerprints
Hurricanes Ophelia, Nate,
and Maria were among 15
hurricanes that raged
across the Atlantic, Gulf
of Mexico, and Caribbean
in 2005.
Global Warming Fingerprints
Global Warming Fingerprints
J. Madsen and E. Figdor, When It Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of
Extreme Precipitation in the United States, Environment America Research & Policy Center, December
2007.
http://www.environmentamerica.org/uploads/oy/ws/oywshWAwZy-EXPsabQKd4A/When-It-Rains-ItPours----US---WEB.pdf
Energy Bill: CAFE & -10% Fuel GHG
by 2025
150%
140%
2020 New
35 MPG
130%
2005 = 100%
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
Fuel GHG:
-10%
1990
70%
CO2
Target
60%
CO2
50%
40%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6 and
sources cited in Growing Cooler .
VMT Growth to Wipe Out Energy Bill
Savings
150%
VMT
140%
2020 New
35 MPG
130%
2005 = 100%
120%
110%
CO2
100%
90%
80%
Fuel GHG:
-10%
1990
70%
CO2
Target
60%
50%
40%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6 and
sources cited in Growing Cooler .
Chapter 4
Main Questions Addressed
1. What reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
is possible in the United States with compact
development rather than continuing urban
sprawl?
2. What reduction in CO2 emissions will
accompany such a reduction in VMT?
3. What policy changes will be required to shift
the dominant land development pattern from
sprawl to compact development?
Portland vs. Raleigh
35% Less VMT with Compact
Development
40
VMT per Capita
28.9
30
29.2
28.9
26.3
25
20
15
33.4
33.2
35
22.0
21.5
22.9
20.3
22.8
19.9
15.2
14.7
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Southern Village (40% lower)
Answer to 1st Question
20-40% VMT Reduction for Each
Increment of Compact
Development
Doing the Math through 2050
60-90% Compact
x
67% New Development
x
30% VMT Reduction
=
12-18% Reduction in Metropolitan VMT
2005 = 100%
Add Smart Growth -15% VMT 
2030 CO2 is 14% below 1990
170%
160%
150%
140%
130%
120%
110%
100%
90%
80%
1990
70%
60%
50%
40%
2005
2010
2030 New
50 MPG
VMT:
-15%
Fuel GHG:
-20%
CO2
Target
2015
CO2
2020
2025
2030
Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6,
stock model calculations and sources cited in Growing Cooler .
Chapter 8
What Would It Take?

What would it take to reach the 2030 CO2
reduction target of 33 percent below 1990
levels?

Will compact development with supportive
transportation policies be enough?

If not, how much VMT reduction must be
achieved through pricing, and what price
changes would be required?
Urban VMT Reduction
Elasticities of
VMT with
Respect to Policy
Variables
Change in Annual
Growth Rates of
Policy Variables (%
above/below Trend)
Effect on Annual
VMT Growth
Rate (% below
Trend)
–0.30
1
–7.7%
0.55
–1
–11.4%
Transit
revenue
miles
–0.06
2.5
–4.6%
Real fuel
price
–0.17
2.7
–14.4%
Population
density
Highway lane
miles
Compact Development
+
Transit
+
Road Pricing
Highway Expansion
=
38% VMT reduction by 2030
No Ballot Measure Can Be
Considered Green If It Includes a
Lot of New Money for Highways
1995 Report on Induced Travel
(with Minority View)
Short-Term Supply and
Demand
Short-Term Increases in
Traffic

New Trips

More Distant Destinations

Mode Shifts

Route Shifts*
Long-Term Supply and
Demand
Long-Term Increases in
Traffic

Higher Car Ownership

Reduced Transit Service

Activity Location Shifts*
* Most important effect according to Cervero, 2002
Growth of Traffic Over Time
Cervero’s Bottom Lines
“…the preponderance of research
suggests that induced-demand
effects are significant, with an
appreciable share of added
capacity being absorbed by
increases in traffic.”
“All that can be said with certainty is
Average Elasticities
Facility-Specific
Studies
0
Areawide
Studies
0.4
Medium-Term
0.27
NA
Long-Term
0.63
0.73
Short-Term
No Transit Measure Can Be
Considered Green Unless It Is
Coupled with Transit-Oriented
Development
What is TOD?
TOD is widely
defined as
compact, mixeduse development
near transit
facilities with highquality walking
environments, not
necessarily at the
expense of
automobile
access.
More Than 100 TODs in USA
High Mode Shares for TOD
Residents
Introducing the 3Ds
Density
33 Units per Acre (gross)
15 Units per Acre
Diversity
Seamless Pattern
Design
Simple Correlations with Design
Variables
Pedestrian-Friendly Design
Pedestrian-Friendly Design
Effect of Density – Bay Area Rail
Effect of Diversity
Effect of Design