Transcript Lecture 3.1 The Automobile Era by the Numbers

The Automobile Era
By the Numbers
Norman W. Garrick
Lecture 3.1
Sustainable Transportation
1915 Model T
http://www.seriouswheels.com/pics-1800-1919/1915-Ford-Model-T-b-nf.jpg
Henry Ford did not invent the automobile or the assembly line. He did, however, change the world by
using an assembly line technique to produce cars which could be afforded by everyone. From 1909
to 1927, the Ford Motor Company built more than 15 million Model T cars. Without a doubt, Henry
Ford transformed the economic and social fabric of the 20th century.
http://www.modelt.ca/background.html
http://www.uniquecarsandparts.com.au/images/car_info/large/ford_model_t_ad.jpg
What Issues of Sustainability are Associated with Increased VMT?
Vehicle Miles Traveled
or
The World After the Model T
1992
ISTEA
3,500,000,000,000
1956
Highway Bill
3,000,000,000,000
1973
First Oil Crisis
2,500,000,000,000
1930s
The Great
Depression
2,000,000,000,000
Post 2005 ???
1940-45
World War II
1,500,000,000,000
1908
The Model T
1,000,000,000,000
1979
Second Oil
Crisis
500,000,000,000
1949
Housing Act
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm
Before-the-War
After-the-War
3,500,000,000,000
3,000,000,000,000
2,500,000,000,000
2,000,000,000,000
1,500,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm
3,000,000,000,000 miles per year
3 Trillion Miles
How much fuel?
At average fleet efficiency rate of 20 mpg we use 150,000,000,000
gallons of gasoline per year
150,000,000,000
gallons of gasoline per year
What is the retail cost this gasoline?
At an average cost of $4:00 per gallon
We spend $600,000,000,000 on gasoline per year
$15,000,000,000,000
Gross Domestic Product of the USA
Retail gasoline cost as a fraction of USA
GDP?
4 out of every $100
4%
% of GDP spent on
Housing 24 %
Healthcare 16 %
Food 12 %
Transportation 11%
Education 7 %
VMT/day/capita
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm
Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html
VMT/capita in USA
• Peaked at 27.9 miles per day per capita in 2004
• Deceased by 1.4 miles per day in 2008 – largest one year
decrease ever in absolute terms
• In 1942 and 1943, VMT/capita decreased by over 20% in
consecutive years
• In contrast the decrease in 2008 was only 5%
• The only times VMT/capita decreased was during
i)
ii)
iii)
iv)
v)
The great depression of the 1930s,
World War II
The Oil Crisis of the 1970s, and
The recession of the early 1980s
Now
VMT in USA is about
27 miles per day per person
VMT/capita/day
Portland (OR) Metropolitan Area
13.5
VMT per Capita
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
VMT/capita versus GDP
Ref: Millard-Ball, A and Schipper, L ‘Are We Reaching a Plateau or “Peak” Travel? Trends in Passenger Transportation in Six Industrialized Countries’, TRB Meeting 2010
Motor Vehicles/1000 in USA
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
Central and South America
China 2005
Africa 2005
Western Europe
China 1995
200
100
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm
Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html
Motor Vehicles/1000
USA versus China
900
750
600
450
2007
240 million vehicles in USA
28 million vehicles in China
China
USA
300
150
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Motor Vehicles/1000
China
25
20
15
China
10
5
0
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Motor Vehicles in USA
800 per 1000 people
The result of supply driven transportation in Zürich?
Motor Vehicles per 1000
400
300
200
100
0
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Total Number of Vehicles versus Population in USA
1900 to 2005
350000000
300000000
250000000
200000000
150000000
100000000
50000000
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm
Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html
Vehicles versus VMT in USA
1900 to 2005
9001
8001
7001
6001
1900 = 1
5001
4001
3001
2001
1001
1
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm
Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html
VMT per Vehicle in USA
1900 to 2005
39.0
34.0
29.0
24.0
19.0
14.0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ref for VMT ---- http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2007/vmt421.cfm
Ref for Vehicle Data ---- http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2007_fcvt_fotw474.html
Creating Automobility
30
25
1000
VMT/capita/day
20
800
Vehicle per 1000
600
15
10
5
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
400
200
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
How did we go from 5 to 200 vehicles per 1000 in less that 20 years?
This change required an enormous shift in how we lived and the structure of
our cities.
One battle ground in this revolution was our city streets.
Before the advent of the automobile, the users of
city streets were diverse and included children at
play and pedestrians at large.
By 1930, most streets were primarily motor
thoroughfares where pedestrians were condemned
as ‘jaywalkers.’
In Fighting Traffic, Peter Norton argues that to
accommodate automobiles, the American city
required not only a physical change but also a social
one: before the city could be reconstructed for the
sake of motorists, its streets had to be socially
reconstructed as places where motorists belonged.
It was not an evolution, but a bloody and
sometimes violent revolution.