Transcript What is the IEM Framework - UAF SNAP

The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM)
for Alaska and Northwest Canada
A collaborative research project for the
DOI Alaska Climate Science Center and the
Arctic, Western Alaska, Northwest Boreal, and North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperatives
“Alaska” LCCs Webinar
April 1, 2013
PIs: David McGuire; Co-PI: Scott Rupp;
Co-Is: Vladimir Romanovsky, Eugenie Euskirchen, Sergei Marchenko
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Research Team
David McGuire, PI
Institute of Arctic Biology
Vladimir Romanovsky, Co-I
Geophysical Institute
Scott Rupp, Co-PI
Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning
Eugenie Euskirchen, Co-I
Institute of Arctic Biology
Sergei Marchenko, Co-I
Geophysical Institute
Presentation Outline
I.
What is the IEM Project?
II.
What is the IEM Framework?
III.
What are the Components of the IEM?
IV.
Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V.
What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI.
What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII.
Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
What is the IEM?
The Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada is designed to help
resource managers understand the nature and expected rate of landscape change in Alaska and
Northwest Canada through providing:
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A common framework for forecasting landscape change in the region in response to climate- and
land cover/use driven changes in vegetation, disturbance, hydrology and permafrost
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Production of maps and other products related to landscape changes in ecosystem structure (e.g.,
composition of shrubs vs. sedges in tundra or conifer vs. deciduous trees in forests) and
function (e.g., production of forage used by herbivores)
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A quantification of the uncertainty in expected outcomes (e.g., by the consideration of different
climate scenarios, different climate models, aspects of uncertainty in the IEM framework)
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A team to help in the development of impact models that can use IEM products to address
assessments of specific resource management responses to landscape changes
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A team to help in conducting climate-change impact assessments that can be used to help identify
adaptation and management responses to forecasted landscape-scale changes that are
projected to impact the management of natural resources.
What is the IEM?
Spatial Domain:
What is the IEM?
The IEM for Alaska and Northwest Canada
will provide a support tool to inform:
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Response of ecosystems to climate and land cover/use change
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Processes that affect species and habitats
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Development of impact models
•
Assessments of natural resource responses
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Adaptation and management responses
Presentation Outline
I.
What is the IEM Project?
II.
What is the IEM Framework?
III.
What are the Components of the IEM?
IV.
Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V.
What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI.
What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII.
Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
What is the IEM Framework?
Projected climate changes will create challenges for natural resource
management including:
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Fish and Wildlife Impacts
Wildlife Diseases and Invasive Species
Protection of Trust Species
Biological Carbon Sequestration
Wildland Fire Impacts
Water Availability and Water Quality
Sea-ice and Glacier Loss
Ecosystem Resilience and Ecosystem Restoration
Changes to Cultural Resource and Subsistence Species (Society Resilence)
Sea-level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge Impacts (Coastal Erosion, Modification of
Fish and Wildlife Habitat)
What is the IEM Framework?
Many of the resource management challenges require information on how
climate and land cover/use change will impact:
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air and soil temperatures
snowfall
rain on snow
ice-free season
growing season
permafrost
stream flow
wildfire
coastal erosion
glaciers
What is the IEM Framework?
Integrated Ecosystem Model
Fire
Permafrost
Vegetation
Hydrology
Climate
Change
What is the IEM Framework
Impact Models
output x
output y
Hypothetical
Model
Integrated Ecosystem Model
canopy cover
thermokarst
Fire
Permafrost
Climate
Change
vegetation
Habitat
Change
fire
vegetation
Vegetation
Hydrology
fire
hydrology
Fire
Management
vegetation
productivity
hydrology
Animal
Performance
What is the IEM Framework?
Stakeholders
Impact Models
output x
output y
Hypothetical
Model
Integrated Ecosystem Model
canopy cover
thermokarst
Fire
Permafrost
Climate
Change
vegetation
Habitat
Change
fire
vegetation
Vegetation
Hydrology
fire
hydrology
Fire
Management
vegetation
productivity
hydrology
Animal
Performance
Communication of Needs
Conservation
& Resource
Management
Decisions
Presentation Outline
I.
What is the IEM Project?
II.
What is the IEM Framework?
III.
What are the Components of the IEM?
IV.
Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V.
What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI.
What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII.
Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
What are the Components of the IEM?
Fire
Permafrost
Vegetation
Hydrology
Climate
What are the Components of the IEM?
Downscaled GCM Data
ALFRESCO
GIPL-2
Soil Thermal Properties
DOS-DVM-TEM
What are the Components of the IEM?
Vegetation
What are the Components of the IEM?
Integrated Ecosystem Model
Fire
Permafrost
=
Climate
Change
Vegetation
Hydrology
What are the Components of the IEM?
Alaska IEM
Other
stakeholder
groups
Impact Models
model output x
model output y
Hypothetical
Model
canopy cover
probability of thermokarst
Habitat
Change
Models
species composition
probability of fire
vegetation cover
probability of fire
surface hydrology
vegetation cover
biomass productivity
surface hydrology
Fire
Management
Models
Animal
Performance
Models
Communication of Needs
Conservation
& Resource
Management
Decisions
Presentation Outline
I.
What is the IEM Project?
II.
What is the IEM Framework?
III.
What are the Components of the IEM?
IV.
Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V.
What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI.
What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII.
Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
Spatial Domain:
LCC Coordination
Together, Alaska and northwest Canada LCCs can:
 Jointly address state- or region-wide information needs
 Serve as a forum for learning and information exchange
 At
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multiple levels
Facilitate communication and collaboration
 Among
agencies/organizations
 Across disciplines
 Across jurisdictional boundaries
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The IEM for Alaska and Northwest Canada and the
Alaska Climate Science Center can help with cross LCC
coordination.
Common LCC Categories of Activity
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Assessing the status of baseline data
Coordinated observations (detecting
change)
Understanding relationships
(understanding change)
Projecting future states (forecasting
change)
Adaptation framework and best
management practices (responding to
change)
Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
Projected climate changes will create challenges for natural resource management
including (from www.doi.gov/lcc):
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Fish and Wildlife Impacts (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)
Wildlife Diseases and Invasive Species (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)
Protection of Trust Species (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC) (IEM)
Biological Carbon Sequestration (ALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)
Wildland Fire Impacts (ALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)
Water Availability and Water Quality (ALCC, NPLCC) (IEM)
Sea-ice and Glacier Loss (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM?)
Ecosystem Resilience and Ecosystem Restoration (WALCC, NPLCC) (IEM)
Changes to Cultural Resource and Subsistence Species (ALCC, WALCC, NPLCC) (IEM)
Sea-level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge Impacts (Coastal Erosion, Modification of Fish
and Wildlife Habitat) (ALCC, WALCC, NWBLCC, NPLCC) (IEM)
To address these issues requires the development of impact models that can use outputs
from the IEM. The IEM team is ready to work with people developing impact models!
Presentation Outline
I.
What is the IEM Project?
II.
What is the IEM Framework?
III.
What are the Components of the IEM?
IV.
Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V.
What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI.
What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII.
Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
IEM Activities
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Development of Historical and Projected Downscaled Climate (1 km
resolution) for Driving Model Applications and for Other Uses.
Coupling Together Component Models (Software Engineering Issue)
Forecasting Tundra Fire and Treeline Dynamics
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Development of Alaska Thermokarst Model
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Model Development (2012-2013)
Model Integration and Application (2014-2015)
Impact Model Development and Application (Shorebird Impact Model?; 2015-2016)
Development of Wetland Dynamics Model
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Model Development (2012-2013)
Model Integration and Application (2013-2014)
Impact Model Development and Application (Caribou Animal Performance?; 20142016)
Field Studies: Alaska Peatland Experiment (2012 – 2013)
Model Development (2014)
Model Integration and Application (2015-2016)
Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment for Alaska (2013-2014)
– Includes Southeast Alaska
IEM Products
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Climate
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Soil Properties
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Historical and projected area burned (historical available,
projected 2013)
Susceptibility to thermokarst (2013)
Thermokarst disturbance scenarios and landscape change (2014)
Landcover and Vegetation
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Permafrost distribution, active layer thickness (2013, with updates)
Disturbance
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Historical and projected climate data for several scenarios of
climate change and for several climate models (available)
Projected treeline (2013, updates)
Future distribution of vegetation types (2013, updates)
Ecosystem Dynamics
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Carbon fluxes, net primary productivity (2013, updates)
Presentation Outline
I.
What is the IEM Project?
II.
What is the IEM Framework?
III.
What are the Components of the IEM?
IV.
Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V.
What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI.
What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII.
Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
IEM Accomplishments and Activities to Date
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Development of Historical and Projected Downscaled Climate (1 km
resolution) for Driving Model Applications and for Other Uses.
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Coupling Together Component Models (Software Engineering Issue)
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Developed a conceptual approach to model development in 2012 (produced a white paper)
Currently developing the code for the model according to a schedule for completion by end of
2013
Development of Wetland Dynamics Model
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Model development largely completed in 2012, model calibration and testing are currently
occurring, plan is for first model application to be completed by July 2013
Development of Alaska Thermokarst Model
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ALFRESCO and DOS-DVM-TEM are currently exchanging data each time step,
next step is to exchange data with GIPL2
Forecasting Tundra Fire and Treeline Dynamics
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http://www.snap.uaf.edu/data.php
Field Studies: Alaska Peatland Experiment (2012 – 2013)
Developed Peatland DOS-TEM for boreal fen application in 2011-2012
Development of Peatland DOS-TEM for boreal bog application in 2013
Biological Carbon Sequestration Assessment for Alaska (2013-2014)
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Working on Calibrations, model application to be completed in 2013
Acknowledgements
Research Scientists
Research Associates
Mark Waldrop
Bob Bolton
Postdoctoral Fellows
Graduate Students
Kirsten Barrett
Tobey Carman
Amy Breen
Winslow Hansen
Zhaosheng Fan
Elchin Jafarov
Helene Genet
Technical Staff
Reginald Muskett
Alec Bennett
Fengming Yuan
Tom Kurkowski
Yujin Zhang
Dustin Rice
Stephanie McAfee
Michael Lindgren
DOI Alaska Climate Science Center
Arctic, Western Alaska, Northwest Boreal,
and North Pacific LCCs
Presentation Outline
I.
What is the IEM Project?
II.
What is the IEM Framework?
III.
What are the Components of the IEM?
IV.
Relationship of the IEM to the Alaska LCCs
V.
What Types of Products will the IEM generate?
VI.
What has the IEM Accomplished to Date?
VII.
Where can You Learn More about the IEM?
Where can you learn more about the IEM?
Further information is available at
http://www.snap.uaf.edu/project_page.php?projectid=15
and
http://arcticlcc.org/projects/landscape/integrated-ecosystem-model-iem-for-alaska/
and soon at a new location on the Alaska Climate Science Center web site.
Or contact Dave McGuire ([email protected]; 907-474-6242), Scott Rupp
([email protected]; 907-474-7535), or Amy Breen ([email protected]; 907-4746927)
Questions?