Transcript - Catalyst

Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
• What is IPAT and how does it help
frame environmental issues?
• What are current projections for
human population growth,
economic growth, & technology?
• Friday: Population, Affluence or
Technology (or not as simple as
that)
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT
Impact on the environment =
Population x
Activity per person (or Affluence) x
Technology (impact per activity).
I = P xAxT
• How many of us are there? How much stuff
are we doing? How environmentally
damaging is the stuff we’re doing?
• Assumes affluence = consumption
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Impact (CO2 and other GHG emissions) =
Population x
Affluence (GDP* per person) x
Technology (Emissions per unit of GDP).
I = P x A x T (now you do the units analysis**)
* Gross Domestic Product measures a
country’s economic output (and income).
** Hint: I should equal emissions
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
**Emissions = Population x GDP per person
x emissions per unit GDP
• What’s happening with population?
• What’s happening with the economy (GDP
per person)?
• What’s happening with technology
(emissions per unit GDP)?
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Emissions = Population x GDP per person
x emissions per unit GDP
• What’s happening with population?
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Billions
10
9
February 4, 2009
8
~21,000,000
October 20, 2008
7
2000
6
5
1975
1968: Garrett
Hardin freaks
out
4
1950
1900
3
2
1850
1
1800
0
-10000
-7500
-5000
-2500
0
2500
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Why?
http://esa.un.org/unpp/ -- UN World Population Prospects 2006
Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Ehrlich
Hardin ‘68
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Great Leap Forward
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldgrgraph.html
Technology
Social Justice
How many children did your
grandparents have (on average)?
32%
24% 23%
16%
5%
or
e
or
m
Si
x
Fi
ve
Fo
ur
Th
re
e
Tw
o
0%
ne
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six or more
O
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
How many children did your
parents have?
44%
32%
13%
7%
or
e
2%
or
m
Si
x
Fi
ve
Fo
ur
Th
re
e
Tw
o
3%
ne
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six or more
O
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
How many children do you want to
have, or how many did you have?
34%
Zero or adopt
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six or more
20%
20%
17%
6%
2%
7
6
5
4
3
2
0%
1
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
2010
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=31&c=cd&l=en
Afghanistan
Malawi
Zimbabwe
India
Norway
China
Greece
Austria
USA
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Demographic transition
• World population is still increasing, but it
appears to be heading for a peak of around 9.3
billion. Why???
• Coercion (Tony)? Environmental awareness?
The invisible hand?
• Mostly just blind luck!
• China’s one child policy
• Is 9 billion a lot or a little?
• The UN’s range for 2300 is 2 to 36 billion!
Population Density (#/km2)
328/km2
• World population density will increase from 44.6
people/sq km in 2004 to 66 in 2050.
• Ranges from Bangladesh (1045), India (336),
3.5/km2
China (138) to USA (31) and Canada (3.2)
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
From UN, The World at Six Billion
• Of the 81.6 million people currently added
to the world each year, 90+% live in the
less developed regions.
• Countries with population over 100 million
– In 1950 (4): China, India, U.S., Russian
federation
– In 2000 (10), add Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Japan, Nigeria
– In 2050 (18), add Ethiopia, Congo, Mexico,
Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Egypt, Turkey.
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Emissions = Population x GDP per person
x emissions per unit GDP
• What’s happening with population?
• What’s happening with GDP per person?
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Per capita GDP
• Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the
size of economic activity in a country.
• U.S., 2007: $45,800 GDP per capita
• China, 2007: $5,400
• Zimbabwe 2007: $200
• In 2005, world GDP rose by ≈4-5%, so per
capita GDP growth was ≈3-4%.
CIA World Factbook
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Compare GDP with other measures
Comparing Nine Countries
1
0.8
0.7
0.6
Population (% of max)
0.5
GDP (% of max)
0.4
Unemploy-ment
0.3
2.5 - 1953
0.2
10.8 - 1982
0.1
0
e
ba
bw
Zi
m
St
a
te
s
ay
U
ni
te
d
N
or
w
i
aw
M
al
di
a
In
re
ec
e
G
in
a
Ch
tr
ia
Au
s
ta
n
3.8 - 2000
ni
s
Af
gh
a
Percentage of Maximum
0.9
7.2 - 2008 (5.1 33.7) 15.4%
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Affluence ~ Consumption
• Summarize
– We consume a lot, we create a lot of waste.
– We are trying to reduce our consumption and our
waste.
• Check out this web site:
http://www.chrisjordan.com/
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
20
18
US & Australia
CO2 emissions per capita
16
14
Czech Rep. &
Portugal
12
10
Austria
8
Iceland
6
China
France
4
Norway
Sweden Switzerland
2
0
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
GDP (PPP) per capita
Key World Energy Statistics 2008
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1199
Ye
ar
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
Energy Consumption (tons of oil equivalent per capita)
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
5
4
3
2
1
0
Social Justice
9
8
7
6
United States
China
Norway
India
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Emissions = Population x GDP per person
x emissions per unit GDP
• What’s happening with population?
• What’s happening with GDP per person?
• By 2100, population may be 50% higher, and
GDP/person may be 50-500% higher.
• Yoram’s conclusion: If we’re going to reduce
GHG emissions, it’s gotta be technology.
• Justice, power, conflict issues will likely result in
a combination of factors that will or will not result
in change.
Chertow describes IPAT and its history. She
mentions a major transformation in
perspective. Who embraced this change?
39%
1.
2.
3.
4.
Barry Commoner
Paul Ehrlich
James Speth
Garrett Hardin
31%
20%
10%
1
2
3
4
This transformation ‘argued’ that
the burden of reducing pollution
lay with …
1. Curbing
population
2. Transforming
society
3. Technology
4. Taxes
5. Tears
63%
20%
16%
1%
1
2
3
4
0%
5
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Good news: Energy use per unit of GDP is
falling! (Our economies are becoming less
energy- and carbon-intensive.)
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Bad news: The drop in T (technology) has not
been keeping pace with increases in P
(population) and A (affluence).
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Technological realism: If China and the U.S. keep
building coal plants like crazy, IPAT suggests that
carbon emissions will not fall.
In your view, should we be thinking
about dealing with CO2 emissions?
1. Yes
2. No
3. Currently not
sure
93%
5%
1
2
2%
3
If you answered yes, what option
represents your approach to the
solution? I = P*A*T
39%
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
P
A
T
P&A
P&T
A&T
P, A, & T
23%
23%
8%
4%
3%
1%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Views on technology
•Technological optimists: “Technology will save
us! Wind/solar/fuel cells/nuclear/etc.”
•Technological pessimists: “Technology won’t
save us—we need changes in values and
lifestyles.”
•Technological realists: “If technology doesn’t
save us, we’re not going to be saved.”
•Combination
Summary
• What is IPAT and how does it help frame
environmental issues?
• What are current projections for human
population growth, economic growth, and
technology?
• Stay tuned to the Friday debate on
population, affluence, and technology!
• Web site with time, population, life
expectancy, etc. http://www.gapminder.org/