Transcript What`s happening with GDP per person?

Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
What is IPAT and how does it help
frame environmental issues?
What are current projections for
human population growth,
economic growth, & technology?
Why is Yoram a “technological
realist” about climate change?
Why is Tom otherwise?
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT
Impact on the environment =
Population x
Activity per person (or Affluence) x
Technology (impact per activity).
I = P xAxT
• How many of us are there? How much stuff
are we doing? How environmentally
damaging is the stuff we’re doing?
• Assumes affluence = consumption
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Impact (CO2 and other GHG emissions) =
Population x
Affluence (GDP* per person) x
Technology (Emissions per unit of GDP).
I = P x A x T (now you do the units analysis)
* Gross Domestic Product measures a
country’s economic output (and income).
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Emissions = Population x GDP per person
x emissions per unit GDP
• What’s happening with population?
• What’s happening with the economy (GDP
per person)?
• What’s happening with technology
(emissions per unit GDP)?
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Emissions = Population x GDP per person
x emissions per unit GDP
• What’s happening with population?
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Billions
10
9
8
October 20, 2008
7
2000
6
5
1975
1968: Garrett
Hardin freaks
out
4
1950
1900
3
2
1850
1
1800
0
-10000
-7500
-5000
-2500
0
2500
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).
Social Justice
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).
Social Justice
Why?
How many children did your
grandparents have (on average)?
30%
23%
22%
18%
7%
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Fo
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Tw
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1%
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One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six or more
O
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
How many children did your
parents have?
46%
28%
10%
9%
5%
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3%
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One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six or more
O
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
How many children do you want to
have, or how many did you have?
44%
Zero or adopt
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six or more
21%
14%
13%
5%
1%
7
6
5
4
3
2
1%
1
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
2010
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Afghanistan
Malawi
Zimbabwe
India
Norway
China
Greece
Austria
USA
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Demographic transition
• World population is still increasing, but it
appears to be heading for a peak of
around 9 billion. Why???
• Coercion? Environmental awareness? The
invisible hand?
• Mostly just blind luck!
• Is 9 billion a lot or a little?
• The UN’s range for 2300 is 2 to 36 billion!
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
From UN, The World at Six Billion
• Of the 78 million people currently added to the
world each year, 95 percent live in the less
developed regions.
• Countries with population over 100 million
– In 1950: China, India, U.S., Russian federation
– In 2000, add Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Japan, Nigeria
– In 2050, add Ethiopia, Congo, Mexico, Philippines,
Vietnam, Iran, Egypt, Turkey.
• World population density will increase from 44.6
people/sq km in 2004 to 66 in 2050.
• Ranges from Bangladesh (1045), India (336),
China (138) to USA (31) and Canada (3.2)
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Emissions = Population x GDP per person
x emissions per unit GDP
• What’s happening with population?
• What’s happening with GDP per person?
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Per capita GDP
• Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the
size of economic activity in a country.
• U.S., 2007: $45,800 GDP per capita
• China, 2007: $5,400
• Zimbabwe 2007: $200
• In 2005, world GDP rose by ≈4-5%, so per
capita GDP growth was ≈3-4%.
CIA World Factbook
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Compare GDP with other measures
Comparing Nine Countries
1
0.8
0.7
0.6
Population (% of max)
0.5
GDP (% of max)
0.4
Unemploy-ment
0.3
0.2
0.1
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Percentage of Maximum
0.9
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Affluence ~ Consumption (?)
• A gold wedding ring ~ 3 tons of discharge at a mine in South
Africa or the U.S. (47% of gold is recycled).
• A gold watch ~ 10 to 20 tons.
• Lunch with two quarter pounders
– If animal was from Brazil, then 54 ft2 (~5 m2) of rain forest is gone,
59 lb of methane produced, ~200 gallons of water, 3.74 lb of grain
– Hamburger bun required wheat, water, nitrogen fertilizer.
• To build your car, it took 605,664 gallons of water for its
steel parts and tires. Battery ~ 17.6 lbs of lead produces ~
682 lbs of pollution at a mine in Australia or the U.S. (73% is
recycled), Car has 22 lbs of copper produces ~2178 lbs of
discharge somewhere in Chile or the U.S. (60% is recycled).
Professor Yannis Phillis
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Average US Citizen (per day)
• Consumes 0.44 lbs (or 53 teaspoons) of
sweetners per day (mostly in processed food)
• Produces 33 lbs of C per day (20% of which is
due to the personal automobile)
• Excluded food and fuel, one consumes 222 lbs
of material per day
• Generates 4.4 lbs of garbage (33% is
packaging)
• Ecological footprint is 4x world average; China
and India are well below world average.
Professor Yannis Phillis
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Professor Phillis’ Model of
Sustainability
• Overall sustainability (OSUS) = ecological
sustainability (ECOS) + human
sustainability (HUMS)
• ECOS = air quality, water quality, land
integrity, biodiversity
• HUMS = Political aspects, education,
economic welfare, health
Andriantiatsaholiniaina, L.A., V.S. Kouikoglou and Y.A. Phillis. 2004. Evaluating
strategies for sustainable development: fuzzy logic reasoning and sensitivity analysis
Ecological Economics 48: 149 - 172.
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Comparison of Cars per Person
Country
United States
Number of Cars per
person ≥ 16 years old
1.023
France
0.700
Japan
0.608
India
0.011
China
0.009
ABC News 2007
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
IPAT and climate change
Emissions = Population x GDP per person
x emissions per unit GDP
• What’s happening with population?
• What’s happening with GDP per person?
• By 2100, population may be 50% higher, and
GDP/person may be 50-500% higher.
• Yoram’s conclusion: If we’re going to reduce
GHG emissions, it’s gotta be technology.
• Justice and power issues will likely result in a
combination of changes.
McKibben argues for a change from
______ to durability and resiliency
1. Green GNP
2. Sustainability
3. Demand for
expansion
4. Concept of justice
5. Web of
connections
57%
33%
4%
1
3%
2
3
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3%
5
McKibben also argues for
moving from “X” to “Y”
1. Community to
wildness
2. Five channel to
cable TV
3. Wildness to
community
4. Thinking about
the future to
thinking about
now
55%
21%
14%
10%
1
2
3
4
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Good news: Energy use per unit of GDP is
falling! (Our economies are becoming less
energy- and carbon-intensive.)
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Bad news: The drop in T (technology) has not
been keeping pace with increases in P
(population) and A (affluence).
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Technological realism: If China and the U.S. keep
building coal plants like crazy, IPAT suggests that
carbon emissions will not fall.
Introduction (IPAT)
Population
Consumption
Technology
Social Justice
Views on technology
•Technological optimists: “Technology will save
us! Wind/solar/fuel cells/nuclear/etc.”
•Technological pessimists: “Technology won’t
save us—we need changes in values and
lifestyles.”
•Technological realists: “If technology doesn’t
save us, we’re not going to be saved.”
•Combination: Matching global aspirations with
emerging situation - McKibben readings
What is IPAT and how does it help
frame environmental issues?
What are current projections for
human population growth,
economic growth, and technology?
Why is Yoram a “technological
realist” about climate change?
Why has Tom chosen more than
technology as a solution?