Transcript Avoiding the `Perfect Storm`

WORKSHOP, 24-25 JULY, EXETER
Avoiding the ‘Perfect Storm’:
Water-Food-Energy Security
Professor Dragan Savić
Director, Centre for Water Systems, University of Exeter
Outline
 ‘Perfect Storm’ & Security
 Background and Intro
 Civilisation Challenges
 Decision-Making, Modelling, Science
and Society
 Aims of the Workshop
 Identify Science Challenges/Gaps
 Build Foundations for a UK Project(s)
‘Perfect Storm’
 An event where a rare
combination of circumstances will
aggravate a situation drastically
 An actual phenomenon that
happens to occur in such a
confluence, resulting in an event
of unusual magnitude
Not the film!
Context for a ‘Perfect Storm’
 Global human society must now attempt to
solve a set of complex, interrelated problems
that are fundamental threats to human
civilisation
 Many of these issues are directly related
to the areas of water, food and energy
 Security, prosperity and equity
Risk
Interconnection
Map 2011
WEF (2011)
Breaking news….
The report highlights five key factors that could
threaten future stability - severe income disparity both
within and between countries, fiscal imbalances across
the globe, greenhouse gas emissions, cyber attacks
and a water supply crisis.
Source: World Economic Forum
Global Risks 2012
6
What is WFE Security?
 Security is about understanding and
managing risks (and uncertainty),
tradeoffs and synergies
 Physical, economic and reliable access to
required quantity/quality of WFE (for
health, livelihood and production) with
acceptable level of risks to individuals,
environment and society
The Perfect Storm of 2030!
 J. Beddington (UK government’s science adviser),
Business as usual projections:
 The world's population ↑ from 6bn to 8bn (33%)
 Demand for
food ↑ by 50%
Climate Change,
 Demand for
water ↑ by 30%
Conflicts,
 Demand for
energy ↑ by 50% Economic Growth
•Biofuels
•Pump efficiency
•Fertilizers
•Food supply chain
•Transport
•Water efficiency
•Agricultural organisation
•Virtual water
•Subsidies
Stakeholders
Water for energy
•Cooling
•Extraction of fuels
•Hydropower
•Biofuels
•Emissions scrubbing
Energy for water
•Pumping
•Desalination
•Treatment
Civilisation Challenges:
Water-Food-Energy
Limited or No Access
 All three areas have many billions of people
without access (quantity or quality or both)
Rapidly Growing Global Demand
Source: US EIA (2012)
Source: McKinsey
12 and
Co (2011)
WFE Resource Constraints
Other Challenges (1)
 All are ‘‘global goods’’ and involve international
trade and have global implications
 All have different regional and temporal
availability and variations in supply and demand
 All have strong interdependencies with climate
change, population dynamics and environment
 All have deep security issues as they are
fundamental to the functioning of society
Adapted from: Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann, Arent, Gielen, Steduto,
Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy Policy, 39 (2011), 7896-7906.
Other Challenges (2)
 All operate in heavily regulated markets
 All require the explicit identification and
treatment of risks and trade-offs
 Due to the vastness of the individual areas and
the difficulty of considering all three together,
there is little work focusing on how to support
decision-making at the WFE ‘nexus’
Adapted from: Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann, Arent, Gielen, Steduto,
Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy Policy, 39 (2011), 7896-7906.
Other Challenges (3)
 As a result, policies and regulations can often
inadvertently create sub-optimal signals to
economic, national security or environment
concerns or even ‘unintended consequences’
Adapted from: Baziliana, Rogner, Howells, Hermann, Arent, Gielen, Steduto,
Mueller, Komor, Tol and Yumkella, Energy Policy, 39 (2011), 7896-7906.
Modelling, Science and
Society
Modelling for WFE Security
 Modelling - a critical translation
point between science and society
 between the physical aspects of
WFE security and societal solutions
 to engage stakeholders and
achieve shared vision
 ‘Predict and Plan’ Approach?
Schematic of Ethanol production and
energy-water-food interactions
International Atomic Energy Agency (2009)
Modelling for WFE Security
 Complexity and Systems Science Approach
 WFE Security – ‘Wicked Problem’
 Relationships are intimately linked,
physically, socially and economically
 Difficult or impossible to solve
 Governed by complexity and feedback
mechanisms that cannot be reconciled
by studying each component
separately
Modelling for WFE Security
 Can modelling help us make better decisions
and policy?
 Not only incremental improvements
 Long-term, transformative thinking
 Systematic, rather than in one area
only
 To underpin the innovation process
 To learn as we go along
 “at least we should be making new mistakes”
System Dynamics Modelling
System Dynamics Approach
Source: Proust et al. (2007) Climate, energy and water :
Accounting for the links, Fenner School of Env and Society
Objectives/Aims of the
Workshop?
Science Challenges
 Develop New Knowledge
 Develop understanding of the kind of futures
that are possible and kind of decisions we
need to make to get to desirable futures
 Develop the ‘Human Dimension’
 To help manage whole ‘landscapes’ (“when
nature meets culture”)
Science Challenges
 ‘WFE Nexus’ needs to be tackled in a trans-
disciplinary manner, by involving various R&D
providers, e.g.:
 Natural & ecological scientists
 Engineers & Technologists
 Social scientists (policy, economics,
psychology, etc)
Science Challenges
 To increase levels of understanding
 Institutional capacity to act on the complex
interactions
 Among stakeholders (engagement,
empowerment)
 To identify technological and management
opportunities
 To develop and apply modelling tools that can
support integrated decision-making
Project?
Thank you
[email protected]