Transcript Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems

The Dynamics of Coupled
Natural and Human Systems
(CNH) Program
Richard Yuretich
NSF Directorate for Geosciences
July 31, 2015
Dynamics
of Coupled
Natural
and Human
Systems
(CNH)
COUPLING
process
process
NATURAL
condition SYSTEM condition
HUMAN
condition SYSTEM condition
process
process
BIO
GEO SBE
COUPLING
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A Brief History of CNH
• CNH was one of the five Biocomplexity in the
Environment special competitions from FYs 2001 to
2005
• BIO, GEO, and SBE conducted a free-standing
CNH competition in FY 2007
• BIO, GEO, and SBE established CNH as NSF's
first multidirectorate standing program, with its first
competition in FY 2008.
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Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human
Systems (CNH)
Program Solicitation NSF 14-601
Projects team natural and social
scientists.
Research is quantitative and predictive.
Projects integrate research and education.
Large Grants are up to $1.8 M and 5 years.
Small Grants are up to $0.5 M and 5 years.
Research Coordination Network (RCN)
Grants are up to $0.5 M and 5 years.
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Special Emphases in CNH
• Focus on coupling of natural and human systems
• Emphasis on complex (non-linear) interactions
among systems
• Strongly quantitative research, although qualitative
research may also be used
• Global perspective as appropriate to the project
• Highly complementary education plan
• Strong management plan
• Compelling broader impacts
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Advice to CNH PIs
Take all words in the competition title very seriously:
Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems
You will probably need to involve researchers from a variety of
disciplines
We encourage:
-
generalizable theoretical development
analysis and synthesis
We do not encourage:
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descriptive projects
normative studies
prescription
Make sure your proposal includes everything (including all the
sections, and supporting documents) the solicitation says we
need…
…but no more than that.
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CNH Proposal and Award Data
Year
Project
Proposals
Highly
Competitive /
Competitive
(fundable)
Funded
Funding Rate
(total received)
%
Funding Rate
(fundable)
%
2011
98 | 37 | 4
(L | e | R)
24 | 13 | 2
14 | 5 | 1
14 | 14 | 25
58 | 38 | 50
2012
91 | 35 | 6
(L | e | R)
31 | 12 | 3
12 | 6 | 0
13 | 17 | 0
39 | 50 | 0
2013
93 | 40 | 3
(L | e | R)
25 | 9 | 1
6| 6 |1
6| 15| 33
24| 67 100
2014
(L |S |R)
41| 3| 2
12| 3| 0
(projected)
10| 6 |0
(projected)
29|100 |0
(projected)
124| 49| 2
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Common Problems in CNH Proposals
H or N system poorly developed
Not looking at full range of
relevant coupling
Team lacks an expert in …
Methodology is not clear / important
details are missing
Hard to see how the individual
subprojects fit together
Missing relevant literature in …
Project is unlikely to result in
theoretical advances
Results would not be
generalizable
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Project is tool development, not
research
Project is driven by agenda, not
scientific enquiry
No clear statement of the
research question(s) /
hypothesis
Proposal is poorly written / is
confusing / has errors / is hard to
navigate
Project does not address
research question(s)
Proposal is not compliant
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Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change: A System
Dynamics Analysis
PI: Sharon Harlan, Arizona State University
NSF Award 0816168, $1.4 million
Examining vulnerability of different urban
neighborhoods and socio-economic groups
to heat-related health hazards.
Developing future scenarios under climate
change.
Devising local adaptation strategies, landscape
changes.
Strong involvement of local communities in
project.
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CNH: Drowning of Developed Coastal Barriers: Investigating the
Threshold Rates of Sea-Level Rise of the Geologic-Human System
PI: Andrew Ashton, Woods Hole
NSF Award 0815875, $1.4 million
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CNH: Competing Demands and Future Vulneability of Groundwater:
Drinking Water Quality and Food Security in Arsenic-Impacted South
and Southeast Asia
PI: Alexander Van Geen, Columbia University
NSF Award 1414131, $1.45million
This project will model how human decisions affect arsenic levels in aquifers across
three river basins that have experienced different degrees of development. The study
will identify effective measures to reduce the amounts of As in groundwater and rice
crops, leading to safer food and water supplies. The results are expected to establish that
soil removal and lowering of As in irrigation water will increase rice yields and protect
deep low-As groundwater for drinking
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CHN-Ex: A Model for Groundwater Allocation and
Management at the Bakken Shale in Western
North Dakota
PI: Zhulu Lin, North Dakota State University Fargo
NSF Award 1413964, $249,423
This project is a pilot study of the
energy-water nexus at the Bakken
Shale of western North Dakota,
using mathematical modeling to
gain a better understanding of the
complex interactions between the
region’s human and natural
systems that are leading to
unprecedented economic
development and use of water
resources. The findings from this
study will be of great importance
to policymakers and communities
in and around the hydraulic
fracturing oil regions in the
country.
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Coupled Natural and Human Systems in Fire-Prone
Landscapes: Interactions, Dynamics and Adaptation
PI: John Bolte, Oregon State University
NSF Award 1013296, $1.5 million
This research integrates social and
ecological sciences to study a
fire-prone landscape in central
Oregon. The project will
combine a policy-driven,
multiagent model of land
management decision-making,
models of vegetative succession
and fire ignition/spread that
can represent climate change
effects, and a suite of landscape
evaluators of socio-economic
and ecological system
performance. These analyses
will help identify strategies that
increase adaptive capacity.
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CNH: Cooking Up Clean Air: Scaled-Up Air Quality and Health Impacts of Clean
Cookstoves in Ghana
PI: Christine Wiedinmyer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
NSF Award 1211668, $1.475 million
Nearly half the world’s population cooks over
open flames on a daily basis. This releases
greenhouse gas and exposes people to toxic
emissions that contribute to respiratory
disease. In Ghana and other countries in the
"meningitis belt," emissions from cooking
have been linked to meningitis. We
hypothesize that widespread use of efficient, or
"clean", cookstoves - which produce less
smoke than open fires even while burning the
same available materials - will reduce people's
exposure to toxic emissions, improve health
outcomes, and improve regional air quality. To
test this hypothesis, we will introduce
cookstoves into households in northern Ghana.
In addition to determining whether they do, in
fact, improve air quality and health outcomes,
we will explore the social and economic factors
that encourage or discourage cook stove use,
and consider the impacts of climate change.
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RESEARCH COORDINATION
NETWORKS
CHANS-Net (2008)
Jianguo Liu &William McConnell
Michigan State University
CNH: International Network of Research on Coupled Human and
Natural Systems (CHANS-Net)
Objectives:
1. Promote communication and
collaboration within the CHANS
community through virtual interaction.
2. Facilitate collaboration within the
CHANS community through face-to-face
interaction.
3.Generate and disseminate
comparative and synthesis scholarship
on CHANS complexity.
4. Strengthen, broaden and diversify
the CHANS community.
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The CNH Solicitation
• Due date is
(usually) third
Tuesday of
November.
• Next deadline
is November 17,
2015.
• www.nsf.gov >
Funding > … >
‘Dynamics of …’
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More Information
• CNH Program Page (solicitation, previous awards, dates etc.)
http://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=13681
OR
NSF Main Page > Funding > Cross-cutting programs > Dynamics of …
• CNH Program Officers
Richard Yuretich, GEO:
Thomas Baerwald, SBE:
Betsy van Holle, BIO:
[email protected] ; 703-292-4744
[email protected]; 703-292-7301
[email protected], 703-292-4974
• Sign up for news on NSF.gov
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