Transcript A MODEL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE CAPACITY BUILDING IN WEST

A MODEL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE CAPACITY BUILDING IN WEST
AFRICA: THE CASE OF WASCAL
Okhimamhe, A. A. (PhD)
WASCAL MRP ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTED LAND USE
Federal University of Technology (FUT) Minna
P. M. B. 65 Minna Niger state
Nigeria
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
1.0
Introduction
2.0 Climate Change in Nigeria - Myth or Reality?
3.0 Climate change in Nigeria – Challenges
4.0 Climate change in Nigeria - Opportunities for
climate change education: The case of West African
Science Service Centre on Climate Change and
Adapted Land Use (WASCAL)
INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION
Paris 2015 Climate Change agreement (COP 21):
 In its 5th assessment report published in 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) affirmed the fact that “most of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is
very likely (>95 per cent) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations”
 In acknowledgement of the fact that global warming, if not mitigated, will
gradually increase global temperature to unprecedented levels, the global
community, in the recently concluded 21st United Nations Framework for
Climate Change Convention’s Conference of Parties (UNFCCC COP) that
held in Paris agreed to “hold the increase in the global average
temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial
levels”.
 Furthermore, “the Parties recognize that adaptation is a global challenge
faced by all with local, subnational, national, regional and international
dimensions, and that it is a key component of and makes a contribution to
the long-term global response to climate change to protect people,
livelihoods and ecosystems…”.
 Global surface temperature was record warm in 2015, moving ahead
of the record set in 2014 by 0.29°F—the largest margin by which one
year has ever beaten another since official records began in 1880.
 In all of NOAA’s 137 years of climate data record keeping, the past 13
months, have been a reflection of this continued increase in
temperature. Currently, May 2016 is regarded as the warmest ever in
the period within 1880 – 2016 or 1,637 months on record.
 In its State of the Climate Report, NOAA (2016) stated that the
combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces
showed a global increase in temperature of 1.22°C above the 20th
century average of 12.7°C; and average global land surface
temperatures have risen by 2.33°C above the 20th century average of
3.2°C.
 Retrieved from www.noaa.gov/climate
CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - MYTH OR REALITY
 Adefolalu (1986) examined trends in rainfall patterns between 1911 and
1980 from twenty-eight synoptic weather stations by Adefolalu (1986); He
observed a general decrease of dry season contribution to annual
rainfall.
 Most of these earlier studies focused more on the use of rainfall data to imply
dryness e.g. recent studies showing that Africa has been drier in the last few
decades (Nicholson et al., 2000; L'Hóte et al., 2002; Oguntunde et al., 2006).
 WMO affiliated NIMET (2008) studied temperature and rainfall data using
60 year (1941 – 2000), the following changes were highlighted:
 Many parts of the country experienced delayed onset and cessation of rains leading to
shortened length of the rainy season in 1971 – 2000;
 Annual rainfall amount decreased from 2 – 8 mm across the country, while increasing
by 2 – 4 mm in coastal areas like Port Harcourt. .
 With the exception of Jos where slight cooling occurred, average temperature
increased by 1.4 – 1.9 °C in most parts of the country, especially in the extreme
northeast (e.g. Maiduguri), extreme northwest (e.g. Sokoto) and extreme southwest
(Benin City).
CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - MYTH OR REALITY
 DFID (2009) predicted future climate change in Nigeria using data from the
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (which is also used in the IPCC
assessments)
 Best estimate scenario for temperature and rainfall changes in Nigeria for the
period 2010 – 2050
 The estimates were calculated from an average of the three different IPCC
‘Special Report on Emissions Scenarios’ (SRES) for West Africa
 Within this period, the best estimates showed that average temperature
would increase by 0.8 in 2020 to 1.8 in 2050; while average rainfall is
expected to increase by 6mm in 2020 and 14mm in 2020
 It is expected that zonal variations would lead to varying effects that would
either be increase in desert-like conditions or increase in rainfall
CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - MYTH OR REALITY
 On behalf of BNRCC, Abiodun et al., (2011) used baseline temperature and
rainfall data for 1971 – 2000 covering forty synoptic stations for trend
analysis and for downscaling of the Global Climate Models (GCMs)
simulations
 Highlights of changes that occurred include:
 Current Situation:
 Maximum and minimum temperatures have increased by 0.4ºC and 0.8ºC
respectively;
 The incidence of heat waves has increased by more than 20 days over the
period;
 Rainfall was found to increase in most ecological zones of Nigeria between
1971 and 2000, totaling approximately 6 mm day-1 per year;
 Future Situation:
 Two future climate change scenarios, A2 and B1, assume that future
development will follow economic and regional considerations and a
predominance of environmental and global considerations
CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - MYTH OR REALITY
 In 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2100, number of rain days, days with
extreme rainfall and flooding are projected to increase over most
ecological zones, except in the northeast zone, where the A2 scenario
suggests fewer extreme events related to flooding and rainfall.
 Cervigni (2013) built on Abiodun et al. (2011) using simulated
models, thus predicting that temperature will be higher by 1–2
degrees in 2056-2065 with the extreme north having the highest
values;
 This will be more evident in December to February, whereby
temperatures in the north central part of Nigeria will
increase by up to 3.5°C
CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - OPPORTUNITIES
 For developing countries like Nigeria, the key solutions will be to reduce
impact on livelihoods; reduce carbon emissions; generate financial
resources for adaptation; while the opportunities created include
investments in:
 health infrastructures and facilities;
 education infrastructures and facilities;
 adaptation and mitigation technology,
 early warning systems,
 green public transportation; and
 strengthening regional cooperation for green technology transfer
(UNDESA 2012);
 It is cheaper to incorporate these investments into national planning in all
sectors now, rather than later, in order to ensure sustainability and resilience,
and reduce the cost of adaptation, in preparation for the climate conditions of
the future
CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - OPPORTUNITIES
 WASCAL…
 Objectives
 aims at strengthening the research, educational and policy capacity and
competence of West-African countries…
 to deal with issues of climate change through adapted land use on a
scientific basis…
 in partnership with German institutions (research institutes, universities).
Participating West African
Countries: Benin, Burkina
Faso, Cote d’ Ivoire, Ghana,
Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal,
The Gambia, Togo
Operational structure of WASCAL
Graduate Research Programs (GRP)
National universities / German partners
Accra, Ghana
Management Unit Ghana
GRP Coordination
Planning & policy
networks
• Governments, authorities,
politicians, policy makers,
development agencies, etc.
Observation networks
Competence Center
Dept. Planning
& Policy Advice
• Meteo, hydro, land, biodiversity,
socio-economic, household
Dept. Regional
Observation
Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Core Research Program
Climate change – adapted land-use
W est-African research consortium
national research institutes,
universities,
graduate research programs
German research consortium
ZEF / Geography-Agriculture-Bonn University /
Biocenter-Geography-Würzburg University /
Augsburg University, DLR, DKRZ, FZJ, KIT
CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - OPPORTUNITIES
Graduate Research Programs (GRP): Regional universities were
encouraged to work together and with counterpart institutions in
Germany to establish above-average GRPs;
The idea is based on an analysis of the West African university
landscape:
• few countries in the region have the critical mass to establish a
GRP that will attract the best talent from within the region,
• to be attractive, academic environments need to be offered that are
competitive regarding teaching facilities and research opportunities.
Graduate research programs identified by regional policy makers:
1. African Climate Systems (Nigeria)
2. Climate Change and Water Resources (Benin)
3. Climate Change Economics (Sénégal)
4. Climate Change and Land Resources (Ghana)
5. Climate Change and Agriculture (Mali)
6. Climate Change and Biodiversity (Côte d'Ivoire)
7. Climate Change and Human Security (Togo)
8. Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (Nigeria)
9. Climate Change and Energy (Niger)
10.Climate Change and Education (The Gambia)
CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - OPPORTUNITIES
Structure of a Graduate Research Program
•
•
•
•
•
•
The GRPs/MRPs are based at a university campus (lead university) of one of the
participating countries;
Each GRP/MRP admits10 doctoral students per year (2/3 Batches);
Participating universities select the Lead Universities based on existing programs,
staff strength, regional partnership, etc.
Lecturers from the Lead University, Partner Universities of the region and Germany
are selected to teach courses and supervise students’ thesis research.
The Lead University awards the doctoral or master’s degree. However, an Advisory
Board composed of representatives of Partner and German Universities agrees on
the curriculum, the criteria for faculty membership, allocation of courses, etc...
4 GRPs (Oct 2011); 4 MRPs/GRPs (Oct 2012); 2 MRPs (Oct 2013)
FUTM NIGERIA
KNUST GHANA
FUTA NIGERIA
FUTM NIGERIA
CLIMATE CHANGE IN NIGERIA - OPPORTUNITIES
Selected Milestones
Milestones
Doctoral Programs Established
Master’s Programs Established
Number of Curriculum / Regional
Advisory Boards
Number of Doctoral Students
Number of Master’s Students
Total Expected
6
4
10
Achieved
6
2
10
180
120
180
120
PARTNERSHIP is an important component of the WASCAL Graduate Studies
Program:
•
Universities, Research Institutions, National Services in West Africa (22
universities)
•
International and Sub-regional Organizations: CILSS/AGRHYMET,
ACMAD, UNEP, 2iE etc)
•
German Universities and Research Institutions: about 10 universities
and research centers collaborate with the GSP.
THANKS FOR LISTENING
WASCAL MRP ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTED LAND USE
Federal University of Technology (FUT) Minna
P. M. B. 65 Minna Niger state
Nigeria