Transcript Slide 1
Abstract Overall System Design System dynamics is a computer aided approach to understand how subsystems are interrelated with each other. This approach incorporates feedback, defines cause and effect, and captures non-linear relationships. In our model, these relationships are created by applying algorithms to social, economic, and environmental factors. This model facilitates stakeholder’s understanding of potential impacts when changes to the input parameters shown in the graphical interface section below are made in order to better manage critical population considerations. On October 31st, 2011, the United Nations reported that the world population had reached 7 billion and was projected to hit 9 billion by 2050, and 10 billion by 2100. Crossing this benchmark has re-instigated awareness of the dangers of overpopulation. Scientists Donella and Dennis Meadows have updated their previous study in Limits to Growth to this century and have shown how the current world population growth rate is unsustainable. Nigeria is currently the fastest growing African country in population, and is predicted to be the world’s third most populous country by 2050. There are many interdependent relationships between population growth and various aspects of the country. The purpose of this project is to develop a forecasting and decision-making tool that allows stakeholders to explore different prospects of sustainable development based on population changes. The model provides information on what directions the country is heading towards and how to modify that direction by influencing population change. We have narrowed our model to focus on the central issues pertinent for Nigeria, including education and HIV. We used the system dynamics software STELLA to build a model that takes into account the various key factors affecting population growth and their impact on social, economic, and environmental aspects of Nigeria. We were able to compare the results of our model with existing historical data for validation. System Dynamics Stakeholders Sustainability Index Benefit of Model to Stakeholders Use as a study tool to analyze population dynamics in Nigeria Non-Governmental Organizations (Population Matters) Provide implementable results and simulations Help policy-makers make wellinformed decisions to encourage sustainable development based on population Validation was completed by comparing the outputs of our simulations with data from previous policies and its impact on population growth. We applied the model with past statistical data from Nigeria and other similar African countries with the assumption that they face similar issues. We readjusted and checked our model so it fell within 5% confidence interval. Results Graphical User Interface •Baseline shows the development path before policy implementation Total Population 179160000 179150000 •Policy 1 increases proportion of population having safe sex and decreases HIV/AIDS transmission and progression rates. 179140000 179130000 179120000 Baseline Policy 1 Policy 2 Policy 3 GDP ($) and Energy Usage (kiloton) due to Population Change Team #13 Authors: Jayme Chen ESE’12 Seung Jae (Andy) Lee ESE’12 Justin Yeh ESE’12 Demo Times: April 19th, 2012 11:30am-12:00pm; 2:30pm-4:00pm Validation Potential Stakeholders Academia (Penn Population Studies Center) Nigerian Government Users such as policy makers, experts in population studies, and non-governmental organizations can see the potential impacts of population on social, economic, and environmental aspects of Nigeria. Advisors: Dr. Peter Scott Katherine Williams The diagram above is a simplified representation of our population subsystem created using system dynamics software STELLA. GDP Energy Usage 151050 18030000 151040 151030 18020000 151020 18010000 Special Thanks to: Penn Population Studies Center, Population Matters, Dr. Ken Laker, Dr. Peter Scott, Katherine Williams 151010 18000000 151000 Baseline Policy 1 Policy 2 Policy 3 •Policy 2 increases the school intake rate and decreases drop out and repetition rates. •Policy 3 is a mix of Policy 1 and 2. The recommended solution is a mix of population policies focused to improve the education system and decrease HIV/AIDS prevalence in Nigeria for economic growth and environmental balance. University of Pennsylvania – School of Engineering and Applied Science – ESE Senior Design