Transcript Washington Nationals Stadium

PLANNERS AND
CLIMATE CHANGE
AMS
Annual Conference
Phoenix, Arizona
January 12, 2009
Scott Shuford, AICP
Outline
Update on Climate Change Handbook for Planners
Climate Change and City Planners – General
An Example – Economic Development
Questions
Climate Change Handbook Update
NCDC scientist review complete
Professional planner peer review complete via webportal
developed by NEMAC
Negotiations underway between UNCA and the American
Planning Association to publish and distribute the handbook
as part of a larger Planners Advisory Service document
Release date is late summer 2009
Climate Change and
Planners – General
American Planning Association
• 43,000 practicing planners and officials
• 65% work for state and local governments
• Two main offices – Washington, DC and Chicago, IL
• 46 chapters
• 19 divisions – planning specialty areas (transportation, urban design, tourism)
• Professional certification program – American Institute of Certified Planners (AICP)
Why does climate change matter to planners?
Economic Development
Environment, Natural Resources and Energy
Housing and Community Development
New Urbanism
Regional and Intergovernmental Planning
Resort and Tourism Planning
Transportation Planning
Urban Design and Preservation
IPCC says:
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.”
Most of the global warming since the mid-20th century is “very
likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic
greenhouse gas concentrations.”
“Unequivocal” = 100% certain
“Very likely” = 90% certain
Climate change is certain
Global Top 10
Warm Years
Anomaly °C
Anomaly °F
2005
0.60
1.08
1998
0.58
1.04
2002
0.56
1.01
2003
0.56
1.01
2007
0.55
0.99
2006
0.54
0.97
2004
0.53
0.96
2001
0.49
0.89
1997
0.46
0.83
1995
0.40
0.72
We are seeing climate change effects today
Source: National Geographic; April 2008
Climate change will be both sudden and severe
Every community will be affected
There will be climate change “winners” and “losers”
DEFINITIONS
Climate Change Winner
A community that is able and willing to physically, fiscally, safely and
sustainably adapt to local, regional, national and global climate
change effects .
Climate Change Loser
A community that does not, will not or cannot adapt to or mitigate
climate change.
Physical
Adaptation
Sea level rise, drought, wildfire frequency, heat waves,
storm surge, wind damage and other consequences of
climate change will either require or preclude
adaptation in many communities
Physical
Adaptation
Physical Adaptation
Alligator River area – coastal NC
Alligator River area – coastal NC
Current view
After 2 feet of sea level rise
Graphics courtesy of The Nature Conservancy
Physical
Adaptation
Andreas Feininger, 1954
Fiscal
Adaptation
Climate change effects will create fiscal
challenges for many communities
Fiscal
Adaptation
Hoover Dam
Safety
Adaptation
Climate change creates a wide range of
public safety impacts that communities
will be forced to either address or
consciously ignore
Safety
Adaptation
Safety
Adaptation
Accept the risk
and move on
Million Dollar Highway – Silverton to Ouray, CO
Sustainable
Adaptation
Sustainable adaptation can be considered
another term for mitigation – adaptation
that minimizes or mitigates climate change
impacts by reducing the potential severity
of the impacts
Sustainable
Adaptation
Washington Nationals Stadium
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“Green Generation” lighting
Brownfield site redevelopment
Green roof over concession stand
Transit links
Bike valet service
Recycling
Priority parking for carpools & fuel-efficient cars
Sand filters for seat cleaning water
Washington Post image
An Example - Economic Development
Local
Economic
Effects
Migration
Migration
People have always migrated
because of climate
Those with choice will migrate
to communities that are climate
change winners
In-migration is a double-edged sword
Desert Hot Springs, CA
A likely climate change winner
Out-migration is a double-edged sword
Philadelphia, PA
Development in
1990
A likely climate change winner
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Regional
Economic
Effects
Tourism
Agriculture
Temperature
VA
NH
Average July
High
88°
82°
Average July
Low
64°
56°
Average Jan.
High
42°
28°
Average Jan.
Low
22°
7°
Cold weather tourist economies in jeopardy
Image: Union of Concerned Scientists
Effects on Agriculture
Other Issues:
Crop varietal
specialization (+ & -)
Crop change transition
Erosion
Market changes due to
transportation costs
Scale of farms
Urban agriculture
Sustainable practices
Land use competition
Wildfires (primarily
forestry)
Food preferences
Source: Natural Resources Canada
www.nrcan.gc.ca
National
Economic
Effects
Warehousing
Transportation
Warehouse uses once filled
large areas of our cities
Adaptive reuse of vacant
warehouse space is now
a common occurrence
How did this happen?
Just-in-time delivery
Just-in-time delivery turned warehouses into lofts and
highways into warehouses.
Manufacturers and retailers ship only enough stock to
meet immediate demand, eliminating the need for storage
space and allowing an almost instantaneous response to
price fluctuations.
Centralizing production and externalizing warehousing
onto the highways (and the environment), created greater
efficiencies and lower prices.
Today’s warehousing occurs on our highway
network, not in buildings in our cities
“Just-in-time delivery has been
a disaster for city governments,
national governments and the
planet.”
Clive Doucet
Urban Meltdown
Problems include:
• Public subsidy for highway warehousing, adding maintenance and new construction costs
• Reduced demand for more efficient, less-polluting rail service
• Greater vulnerability to food, gasoline, and other shortages when supplies are interrupted
• Larger vehicles compromise highway safety and clog city streets
Climate change issues include:
• Greater emissions = faster global warming
• Weather-related delays in delivery = local vulnerabilities
Transportation:
Vulnerable to
Climate Change
Reagan
National
Airport
Transportation:
Confederation Bridge
Global
Economic
Effects
Transportation
Trade
Socio-Political
Transportation:
Opening of the Northwest and Northern Passages
NASA image
Agence France-Presse image
Trade and Socio-Political:
Cyclone Nargis
Questions?
PLANNERS AND
CLIMATE CHANGE
NCDC Presentation
January 9, 2009
Scott Shuford, AICP