Transcript Large file! MS Powerpoint

What it really means
for Kenya
Isaiah Kipyegon
Communications & Advocacy
NCA – Eastern Africa
WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?
• Simplified Definition: Climate Change can be defined
as the long term changes in the average weather
pattern of a region observed over a period of time. Key
weather conditions that change are temperature,
precipitation and sea levels.
• Causes: It is caused by increases in greenhouse gases
(GHG) in the Earth's atmosphere. GHG are emitted
mainly by burning of fossil fuels(oil, natural gas,
coal).These gases soak up heat from the sun but
instead of the heat leaving the earth's atmosphere,
some of it is trapped, making the Earth warmer.
• Effects: droughts, floods, heat waves, storms, etc
WHAT ARE GREENHOUSE GASES?
• The chief greenhouse gases (GHGs) which are
responsible for global warming consist of Carbon dioxide
(CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O),
Tropospheric Ozone (O3), and hydrofluorocarbons
(HCFCs).
• The principal way in which these gases operate is to
prevent the escape of heat initially received from the
sun by the earth’s surface, as short wave energy back
to space
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GHGs AND GLOBAL WARMING
• By trapping heat energy at the earth’s surface,
cumulative heating takes place over the years,
and this is what has been referred to as
“global warming”.
• The continual increase in CO2 and other GHGs
in the earth’s atmosphere has already led to
temperature increase, and is projected to lead
to from 3-50C increase in temperature by
2100.
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GHG EMISSIONS = CLIMATE CHANGE
• Green House Gases are the products of
industry, transportation, as well as changes in
land use.
• Approximately 70 percent of all the GHGs that
have accumulated in the earth’s atmosphere
have been put there by the US and Europe’
• The US alone is responsible for about 35% of
the total GHGs.
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2017
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Expected impacts
 Water stress due to high evaporation and higher
runoff
 Agriculture: Lower production due to less water,
land loss, uncertain seasons
 Health - alteration of temporal and spatial
transmission of disease vectors, e.g. malaria;
 Ecosystems: More drying/desertification
deforestation, fires increase, degradation of
grasslands and endangering 40% of animal species;
 Coastal zones: inundation coastal erosion,,
degradation of marine ecosystems.
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Valero Energy
Kenya’s vulnerability
• Kenya and many other African countries are poor ,
facing major challenges such as Malaria, HIV and AIDS,
weak economies, unemployment, food security and
weak capacity and institutions
• Temperature rises over many areas in Africa including
Kenya will be greater than the global average. The
general predicted rise is 4C by the 2080s. But
temperatures could rise to 7C in southern Africa and 8C
in northern Africa - almost double the global average
Kenya’s vulnerability…
• Rising temperatures, widespread water stress,
increased frequency and severity of droughts and
floods, and rising sea levels will severely damage
progress on development goals in Kenya and Africa.
• Vector- and water-borne diseases such as malaria,
dengue fever and cholera may increase. An additional
67 million people in Africa could be at risk of malaria
epidemics by the 2080s
• The poorer, developing countries are the least equipped
to adapt to the potential effects of climate change,
although most of them have played an insignificant role
in causing it.
Affected sectors
• Agriculture sector: IPCC (2007) predicts that by 2020
many Africa countries could have agricultural
productivity reduced by as much as 50%
• Water resources: IPCC (2007) by 2020 75 – 250 mil.
People in Africa exposed to extreme water stress. Lake
Chad, Victoria, Baringo, Nakuru, drying rivers (20 out of
26 rivers have dried around Mt. Kenya - Mbari, 2007).
• Aquatic and coastal resources: inland and marine water
fisheries including the coastal zone related to sea level
use.
• Security: conflict related to climate affected sectors e.g.
grazing land, water. Conflict between wildlife & humans
• Human health: tropical diseases e.g. malaria,
Meningitis, African trypanosomiasis and cholera.
• Tourism: loss of coral reefs, aquatic-life, wildlife, ‘good
climate’ etc
Case study: Crises in Kenya
• In 2004/2005 harvest, the cereal deficit had
grown to 300,000 metric tons, which means
that up to 2.7 million people needed food aid—
an unusually high number for Kenya. (Jesse Allen,
Earth Observatory)
• 2005/2006 up to 70% of all livestock in Kenya
died due to droughts & 3.5 m people at verge
of starvation President Kibaki declared yet
another “national Disaster” in reference to the
famine that affected 2.5 million in northern
Kenya.
• Crop failure this year result in food scarcity
Case study: Crises in Kenya
• More than 10 million people facing starvation
currently – some have died!
• Energy and water crises: All parts of the
country have up to 4 days without electricity
or water.
• Crop failure this year as a result of lack of rain
– some areas have not received rain for the
last 5 years.
ADAPTATION
• It has been suggested that adaptation is the only option
for survival. A wide ray of adaptation options is
available to help mankind deal with anthropogenic
climate change.
• It is rewarding to work out the cost of adaptation for
each economic sector, such as water, agriculture,
infrastructure, human health, tourism, transport, and
energy.
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2017
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Adaptation: Do or Die
• WATER: Rainwater harvesting and Sand dams
• ENERGY: Bio fuels, clean energy - for the energy-poor
• FOOD: Crop diversification/mixed cropping - 37% of
population in Kenya (WB, 2007)….farm production
adjustments livestock production, changing land use,
irrigation and altering the timing of operations.
Communities work together
Complete sand dam
Jatropha
Problem with adaptation…
* Kenya cannot afford adaptation!
Poverty, underdevelopment, need ‘climate proof
development’,
* Kenya does not have adequate capacity
a. Systemic capacity needs
An overall policy framework to direct an integrated multisector, multi-disciplinary approach to Adaptation.
Inadequate technology for adaptation (irrigation, etc
b. Institutional Capacity needs
Lack of defined institutional mandates and responsibilities,
Specialized institutions with special capacity.
Generally well-trained human resources to address global
climate change.
Make adaptation work…
• Adaptation fund – adequate, accessible, specified for
Africa, legally binding contribution to adaptation fund by
rich countries based on current & historical
responsibility and capacity to pay
• Technology development and transfer to support
mitigation and adaptation – remove obstacles such as
market-based IP rights
• Integrate adaptation into development (planning, policy
etc.)…’climate proof development’
Right to development
• Right to develop vs. right to emit GHG in Africa
– Emissions to meet basic needs & overcome poverty
= human right!
– Current level of devt. And technology cant allow
clean production
– Climate change debates must not put unnecessary
barriers to development path of the poor in Africa
– Developing countries to be assisted to reduce their
GHG emission
Road to Copenhagen: What it
MUST achieve
• Copenhagen MUST achieve what Kyoto failed to – fair,
effective and equitable protocol that deepens GHG
emission cuts in industrialized countries and ensure
greater mitigation and adaptation contribution by rich
countries to poor countries, while at the same time
safeguard the right to development for poor countries
What can developed countries DO?
• Support sustainable development in Africa that is linked
to climate change including cleaner production
• Support adaptation and mitigation in Africa, especially
among the poor and vulnerable
• Insist on adaptation, sustainable development and
poverty reduction in the UNFCCC
• Commit deeper GHG emissions cut and model for other
industrialized countries to reduce global warming
• Technology sharing and transfer:
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