Transcript Hurricane Sandy Follow-up Vulnerability Assessment

Hurricane Sandy Follow-up Vulnerability
Assessment & Resilience Study
2016 Annual Meeting of the Metropolitan Area
Planning (MAP) Forum
North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority
December 16, 2016
Heather Holsinger
FHWA Sustainable Transportation and Resilience Team
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Hurricane Sandy Study Background
• Builds on a FHWA
2011 NJ pilot
• Learn from
experience of 2012
Hurricane Sandy and
identify strategies to
improve resiliency
• Research project
launched in Fall 2013
SLR 1 Meter, 2100, Coastal Study Area (Roadways). Source NJTPA
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Hurricane Sandy Study Partners
•
Federal Highway Administration
(FHWA)
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Federal Transit Administration (FTA)
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State Departments of Transportation in
New York, New Jersey and
Connecticut
•
Metropolitan Transportation Authority
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Port Authority of New York & New
Jersey
WCCOG
Western Connecticut Council of Governments
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Metropolitan Planning Organizations:
• New York Metropolitan Transportation Council
• North Jersey Transportation Planning
Authority
• Western Connecticut Council of Governments
• Connecticut Metropolitan Council of
Governments
Consulting Team:
– Cambridge Systematics
– AECOM
– Abt (Stratus Consulting)
– Office of Radley Horton
– C2E
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Hurricane Sandy Study Objectives
• Enhance the tri-state region’s resiliency to climate
change and extreme weather in the longer term, while
informing the ongoing Hurricane Sandy recovery
process
• Identify feasible, cost-effective strategies to reduce and
manage extreme weather vulnerabilities amid the
uncertainties of a changing climate
• Advance the state of knowledge and develop methods
to assist agencies in the tri-state region—and
nationwide—to plan and invest for long-term climate
resilience
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Key Elements of Work Plan
Task 3:
Regional, multi-modal damage/disruption
assessment based on recent storms
Task 4:
Asset-level assessments
– Test engineering-based adaptation assessment
process on 10 assets
– All three state DOTs, PANYNJ, MTA, two counties
Task 5:
System-level vulnerability and risk assessment
– Regional vulnerability analysis (primarily exposure)
– “Mesoscopic” application of vulnerability and risk
assessment process; one each in CT, NY, and NJ
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Task 3 - Regional Damage and Disruption
Assessment
• Analyzed historical data from recent
storm-related damage and disruption
– Sandy, Irene, Lee, and Storm Alfred
(nor’easter)
• Collected information on existing climate
projections
• Conducted gap analysis of climate data to
inform our assessment of future scenarios
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C L I M AT E
CHANGE
Task 4 – Engineering Assessment and Adaptation
Analysis for Transportation Assets
• Test the EngineeringBased Adaptation
Assessment Process
• Provide case studies
and detail to process
• Develop useful
adaptation strategies for
each asset
Task 4 – Engineering Assessment and Adaptation
Analysis for Transportation Assets
Task 4 - Engineering Assessment and Adaptation
Analysis for Transportation Assets
• 10 Transportation Assets
– 6 in New York, 3 in New Jersey, 1 in Connecticut
– A mix of bridges, highways, a port, and a railroad track
• Range of Climate Stressors Covered
– Sea level Rise and Storm Surge (7 assessments)
– Extreme Precipitation (2 assessments)
– Extreme Heat (1 assessment)
• Range of Adaptation Strategies Proposed
– Physical modifications (e.g., installation of seawalls)
– Updating regulatory guidelines (e.g., updates to zero thermal stress
temperature, updates to IDF Curve)
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Engineering-Based Adaptation Assessments:
Example: Loop Parkway Bascule Bridge, NY
Source: NYSDOT Rehabilitation of Loop
Parkway over Long Creek, 1991 and AECOM,
2014.
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Task 5: Regional Transportation
System Vulnerability Assessment
• Work Products
– GIS input files and outputs of analysis
– Climate projections
– Compilation of other reports and resources
• Intent
– Provide information and resources so that
agencies can conduct their own follow-up
analyses
– Help identify candidates for subareas
assessment
Regional Vulnerability Overlays - SLOSH
Regional Vulnerability Overlays –
NFHL
Transportation System Criticality
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NHS
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Evacuation Rt.
Reg. Freight
Reg. People
Intermodal Hub
Subarea Selection Criteria
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Range of geographies and climate impacts
One per state
Relatively high vulnerability
Avoiding duplication of effort
Usefulness of results
Subareas Selected
Norwalk-Danbury Corridor
Long Island South Shore
Raritan Bayshore
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Task 5: Mesoscopic Analysis of Adaptation
Strategies in Vulnerable Subareas
• Work Products
– More detailed vulnerability and risk
assessment, including benefit-cost analysis of
adaptation strategies
• Intent
– Demonstrate how a vulnerability and risk
assessment process can be performed at a
“mesoscopic” level
– Bridge the gap between system-level analysis
and asset-specific assessment
Next Steps
• Finalize project work products and report
(December 2016)
• Stakeholder Review (December 2016-January
2017)
• Report release (Target late February 2017)
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HURRICANE SANDY STUDY AND BEYOND
• FHWA Goal: Mainstream consideration of climate change vulnerability
and risk in transportation decision making
• Hurricane Sandy project is informing our collective understanding on
integrating climate resilience at multiple levels
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Planning
Project
• Regional Long
Range
Transportation
Plans
• Corridor
Analysis
• Engineering
• Design
Operations and
Maintenance
• Emergency
Relief
• Asset
Management
CPlans
L I M AT E
CHANGE
Thank you!
• For more information:
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/adaptation/ongoing_and_current_
research/hurricane_sandy
• My Contact Info:
Heather Holsinger
[email protected]
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