Transcript Key challenges under the Bali Action Plan

NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE
AWARENESS-RAISING WORKSHOP
Safari Hotel,
Windhoek, Namibia
23-25 September, 2008
OVERVIEW OF THE BALI
ROAD MAP
Maria Netto, UNDP
1
Climate Change Convention initially focused on mitigation (1992)
Convention objective
Achieve stabilization
of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the
atmosphere at a
low enough level to
prevent “dangerous
anthropogenic
Interference” with
the climate system
• Allow ecosystems to
adapt naturally to
to climate change;
within
timeframe
sufficient to
• Ensure food production
is not threatened; and
• Enable economic
development to
proceed sustainably
No Binding Targets: UNFCCC signed by 191 Parties
2
The Convention clusters countries in three groups
“Common, but differentiated responsibilities”
Annex I
Annex II
Non-Annex I
Industrialised
countries &
Economies in
Transition (EITs)
Industrialised
countries
Developing
countries
• Adopt policies
and measures with
aim of reducing GHG
emissions to 1990
levels
• EITs have “flexibility”
in commitments
• Provide financial
resources to enable
developing countries
• Promote technology
transfer to EITs and
non-Annex I Parties
• No quantitative
obligations
• Least Developed
Countries given
special consideration
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Bali Road Map - Breakthrough
• Shared understanding for the necessity of common
efforts, both by developed and developing countries
• Climate change linked to economic growth and
sustainable development goals and needs –
recognition action fall across a variety of economic
sectors.
• Deadline for negotiations by 2009: to ensure entry into
force of future regime by 2012
4
Bali Road Map – two tracks
Kyoto Protocol “track”
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Agree on developed countries emission reduction targets
by 2009
For 450 ppm CO2-eq, GHG emissions would need to be
reduced for about 25 to 40 % by 2020.
Means to achieve targets: mechanisms (CDM, JI, ET),
national policies, accounting issues, role of LULUCF, etc.
Convention “track”
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•
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Focuses on four “building blocks”: adaptation, mitigation,
technology transfer & deployment, financing
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation
(REDD) also discussed
Mitigation actions from developing countries
Mitigation commitments from developed countries
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Transition fromBuilding
UNFCCC………
Blocks
Global Action
Sustainable Development Objectives
Finance
Adaptation
Mitigation
Mitigation
Adaptation
Technology
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The Road to Copenhagen (COP-15): Progress to date
First session, Bangkok, 31 March-4 April 2008
•
•
Identified a work programme and specific workshops for 2008
Agreed to discuss all building blocks at each meeting
Second session, Bonn, 2-12 June 2008
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•
Initial discussions of building blocks
Progress on KP “track” – draft negotiating text on LULUCF and
“mechanisms” (CDM, JI and ET)
Third session, Accra, 21-27 August 2008
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•
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Work programme for 2009.
Parties started submitting textual proposals on building blocks
For COP 14 - KP “track” - set of options for means to achieve
targets and criteria to define targets.
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Expected outcomes of COP 14 (Poznan)
• Convention track: consideration of submissions/options
on various building blocks: expectation = possible
negotiating texts. Important to set a “shared vision”.
• KP track: clearer and shorter list of options for
improvements in mechanisms & beginning of
discussions on criteria for targets.
• Other “ongoing” negotiations will also play a role, e.g.:
• Article 9 of the KP
• Adaptation Fund
• Review of the Financial Mechanism
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BALI ACTION PLAN
BUILDING BLOCK
MITIGATION
Massamba Thioye, Senegal
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Mitigation: What we know
Mitigation: Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
or enhancement of “sinks”
• Human activity is contributing to climate change and
all sectors will be impacted
• ALL countries must reduce emissions to avoid worst
damages
• Developed countries by 0 to -25% to -25 to -40% in 2020
• Developing countries “substantially” from baseline
• Significant technological progress made, but annual
investment of $200-210 billion needed by 2030
• Forests and land use will be big part of the solution
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Examples of mitigation options
Common policies in developing countries include:
• Regulations and standards, e.g., mandates for biofuel,
renewable energy policies
• Financial incentives, e.g., subsidies for energy-efficient
lighting
• Research & development, e.g., improving energyefficient stoves in Senegal and promoting dissemination
• Information instruments, e.g., energy efficiency
labelling programmes and consumer awareness
programmes
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Key issues under the Bali Action Plan
Bali Action Plan calls on developing countries to identify
mitigation actions that are:
• Measurable
• Reportable
• Verifiable (MRV)
 MRV implies support for technology, finance,
and capacity building for developing countries
 Developed countries must make commitments and
action
 International agreement will be major challenge
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Key challenges under the Bali Action Plan
Mitigation is highly contentious issue in negotiations,
in danger of remaining blocked
At issue:
• “Common but differentiated responsibilities”
 Outcome differs depending on: which GHGs, which sources,
time frame, scale (national vs per capita emissions)
• Comparability: how to bring Convention and Kyoto
Protocol tracks together
• G77 & China want all developed countries to take on
commitments
 US must come to table
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Proposals on table in the negotiations
• Evolution of Clean Development Mechanism
• Sustainble development policies &
measures (SD-PAMs)
• Sectoral approaches
•Kyoto-style fixed targets
• Per capita
• Brazilian proposal
• Emissions intensity
• Global Triptych
Namibian
context
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Discussion questions
• What mitigation issues being discussed under the Bali
Road Map are the key challenges for Namibia?
• What are the key issues Namibia needs to focus on?
• How can constraints be measured and needs quantified
in order to justify funding and capacity building?
• Which policy instruments has Namibia used to achieve
objectives on environment or energy policy? Have they
been successful? Why were they successful?
• What institutional arrangements would help improve
policy design and decision making for mitigation?
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BALI ACTION PLAN
BUILDING BLOCK
ADAPTATION
Maria Netto, UNDP
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Adaptation: What we know
Adaptation: Process of sustainable and permanent
adjustment to changing circumstances
 Closely linked to development
 Needs to converge with disaster risk reduction
activities
 Impact assessments dominated by uncertainties &
complex interactions
 Will require substantial funding ($ tens of billions)
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Key challenges in adaptation
 Hard to define: very broad, far-reaching in scope
 Will require adjustments across every aspect of society,
environment & economy
 Not stand-alone issue: linked to economic development,
poverty reduction, disaster management
 Requires capacity for short- and long-term planning
 Adequate institutional arrangements (systematic
planning, co-operation, and regulatory frameworks)
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Evolution of international negotiations
• Initial focus of negotiations from 1995 was mitigation
• Adaptation identified as issue at COP-7 in 2001
(Marrakesh Accords)
• Identified 14 adaptation activities needing support
• Created NAPA process and LDC Expert Group (LEG)
• LDC Fund, Special Climate Change Fund, Adaptation Fund
• COP 10 to 12 (2004 to 2006)
• Nairobi Work Programme
• Implementation measures on methods, activities, technology
transfer and financing
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Key issues under the Bali Action Plan
Four discussion topics identified:
1. National planning for adaptation
2. Streamlining and scaling up financial & technological
support
3. Enhanced knowledge sharing
4. Institutional frameworks for adaptation
Key challenges
 Current level of funding
 Experience of developing countries in accessing funds
 Need for additional financial flows in future
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Discussion questions
• What adaptation issues being discussed under the Bali
Road Map are the key challenges for Namibia?
• What are the key issues Namibia needs to focus on?
• What are the key sectors Namibia needs to focus on?
• What national institutional frameworks exist for
coordinating climate change in Namibia?
• Is there a specific group for coordination action and
positions on adaptation? What kind of stakeholders are
involved in such an institutional framework?
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LAND USE,
LAND-USE CHANGE
& FORESTRY
Hernán Carlino, Argentina
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LULUCF: What we know
• Land-use sector, including forestry and agriculture,
is important source of GHG emissions
 20%-30% of total emissions
• Can play key role in climate change mitigation
• Emerging as important issue in post-2012 regime
discussions
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Evolution of international negotiations
• Key sector for developed countries because of
mitigation potential
 Contentious because of high uncertainties
• Developing countries focused mainly on GHG
inventories (issues of data, resources, capacity)
• Major step in Marrakesh (2001) under Kyoto Protocol:
Afforestation & reforestation included in CDM
• Reducing Emissions from Deforestation & Forest
Degradation (REDD) becomes Convention topic
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Key issues under the Bali Action Plan
Four key mitigation options identified for developing
countries:
1.
2.
3.
4.
REDD (reduction of emissions)
Sustainable forest management
Forest restoration (carbon sequestration)
Afforestation & reforestation (carbon sequestration)
Developing countries want:
• Financial incentives (new & additional)
• Wider set of eligible activities
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Key challenges in LULUCF
 Data: historical and carbon content
 Definition of forests
 Selection of reference baseline
 Leakage/boundary issues
 Permanence (impact of fires, pests, etc.)
 Impacts of mitigation activities, e.g., biofuels
 Monitoring and reporting (uncertainties)
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Discussion questions
• What LULUCF issues being discussed under the Bali
Road Map are the key challenges for Namibia?
• What are the key issues Namibia needs to focus on?
• Has Namibia participated in the LULUCF negotiations?
If yes, what is the process to define positions and
strategies regarding LULUCF under the Convention?
• What incentives would be needed to promote action
on LULUCF in Namibia? ?
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BALI ACTION PLAN
BUILDING BLOCK
TECHNOLOGY
DEVELOPMENT &
TRANSFER
William Kojo Agyemang-Bonsu, Ghana
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Technology transfer and deployment: What we know
• Investments in clean energy are growing fast,
including new financial products and markets
• Substantial financing gap for the required scaling up
• Private sector incentives must be reinforced
• Most favoured technologies in recent years: wind,
solar, biofuels (renewables increasingly relevant)
• Carbon markets (including CDM) can play important
role for developing countries
 Smaller & lower-income countries still to see benefits
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Technology choices
Hard versus soft technologies
Diffusion mechanisms
1. Research, development & demonstration
2. Deployment
3. Transfer
• Cleaner fossil fuel power generation
• Biomass and bioenergy
• Wind, solar & hydro power
• Energy-efficient buildings and appliances
• Transport, etc.
• Adaptation technologies!
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Evolution of international negotiations
• Developed countries required to support transfer of
technologies to developing countries
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Environmentally sound-technologies
Suited to local conditions
Dissemination of technology information & networking
Strengthened research and capacity building
• Identified as key modality for mitigation and
adaptation: gaining momentum in negotiations
• Kyoto Protocol: also emphasises need for financial
resources, CDM
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Key issues under the Bali Action Plan
 Removal of barriers to promoting technology transfer
including:
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•
•
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Financing
Intellectual property rights
Tariffs and non-tariffs
Capacity
 Ways to accelerate deployment, diffusion and
transfer of technologies
 Co-operation on research and development
 Effectiveness of tools & mechanisms for technology
co-operation
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Key challenges under the Bali Action Plan
• How quickly we can move to low-carbon energy
world?
• Policy approach needed to accelerate technology
transfer (climate only, or additional instruments?)
• Investments required for sustainable technologies
• Role of intellectual property rights
• Form international R&D co-operation should take
(inside Convention or outside?)
• Role and ultimate scope of carbon markets and CDM
• Institutional arrangements (national & international)
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Technology options: proposals from Parties
Institutional arrangements for a new mechanism for RDD&D
and technology transfer, i.e., new body with mandate for:
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•
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compulsory licensing
patent purchase
incentive provisions for technology transfer
funding for technology co-operation activities
development of indicators, monitoring, verification, etc
New policy initiatives
• Specific technology or sector-based approaches
• Technology & efficiency standards
• Identification of breakthrough technologies
• Creation of centres of excellence to promote technology
• Information diffusion mechanisms (national and international)
New financial mechanisms
• Multilateral Fund
• Venture Capital Initiative
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Discussion questions
• What technology transfer and deployment issues being
discussed in the negotiations are key challenges for
Namibia?
• What are the key issues Namibia needs to focus on?
• What are the key sectors Namibia needs to focus on?
• Has Namibia participated in the technology negotiations?
If yes, what is the national process for defining positions
and negotiation strategies regarding technology?
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BALI ACTION PLAN
BUILDING BLOCK
FINANCING
Maria Netto, UNDP
36
Financing: What we know
• Mitigation measures will require additional I&F flows
of $200-210 billion in 2030
• Adaptation measures will require additional I&F flows
in 2030 of several tens of billion $
• Amounts are large in absolute terms, but small
relative to global GDP and investment
• Private sector dominates investments (60%)
• Households (24%); government (14%)
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Evolution of international negotiations
• Both Convention and Kyoto Protocol foresee financial
assistance for developing countries
• 4.3 ‘new and additional financial resources to meet the agreed full
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•
•
costs’
4.4 ‘assistance to meet costs of adaptation’
4.8 ‘funding in vulnerable developing countries’
4.9 ‘funding for LDCs’
• Financial assistance can be through “Financial Mechanism”
(i.e., GEF) or bilateral, regional or other multilateral channels
• Parties established two new GEF funds
• LDC Fund, Special Climate Change Fund
• Adaptation Fund established under Kyoto Protocol
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Key issues under the Bali Action Plan
 Improved access to adequate, predictable &
sustainable financial resources
 New and additional funding
 Positive incentives to implement mitigation &
adaptation actions
 Innovative funding means to meet adaptation costs
 Mobilisation of public and private sector funding
 Financial and technical support for capacity building
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Key challenges in financing
• Current GEF funding contributions are insufficient
for future needs
• Should contributions remain voluntary?
• Carbon market will need to be expanded
• New and additional external financing is needed for
mitigation and adaptation
• Information needs
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Financing options
Option
Increasing the Scale of Existing Mechanisms
The CDM and Other Possible Crediting
Mechanisms
The Adaptation Fund
Proposals Funded by defined Contributions from
Developed Countries, e.g.
Mechanism for Meeting Financial Commitments
under the Convention (G77)
Estimated Annual Under the
Revenue (billion $) Convention
Defined
Contribution
Go through
Government
Budget
Currently $25
$25 to $100
$0.50 to $2
Y
N
N
Y
N
N
$130 to $260
Y
N
Y
World Climate Change Fund (Mexico)
$10
Y
Y
Y
Multilateral Adaptation Fund (Switzerland)
$18
Y
Y
Y
$5
Y
Y
N
$0.5 or $5
Y
Y
N
$13
N
Y
N
$20 to $40
N
N
N
Proposals Funded by Contributions from
Developed and Developing Countries, e.g.
More Stringent Commitments by Developed
Countries,e.g.
Auction of Assigned Amount Units (Norway)
Other Sources of Funds, e.g.
Extension of the 2% levy on CDM to other Market
Mechanisms (OASIS, G77)
International Air Travel Adaptation Levy
Auction of Allowances for International Aviation
and Marine Emissions (EU)
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Discussion questions
• What financing issues being discussed in the
negotiations are key challenges for Namibia?
• What are the key issues Namibia needs to focus on?
• Has Namibia participated in the negotiations on financial
issues? If yes, what is the national process for defining
positions and negotiation strategies regarding financing?
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