Transcript Powerpoint - University of Arizona

USING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TO PREPARE
FOR EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
PROJECT OVERVIEW
JANUARY 21, 2016
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Funded By:
Today’s Agenda
• Introductions
• Project Overview and Timeline
• Year 1 Project Examples
• Extreme Weather and Climate of Las Cruces
• Next Steps
Our Team
City of Las Cruces, NM
Lisa LaRocque, Sustainability Officer
Adaptation International
Sascha Petersen, Overall NOAA Project Lead and Co-Founder
Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), University of Arizona
Gregg Garfin, Associate Professor
Sarah LeRoy, Research Assistant
Emilie Schur, Research Assistant/Graduate Student
ISET International
Karen MacClune, Chief Operating Officer & Senior Staff Scientist
You!
Project Overview
Working together to make Las Cruces a more
weather resilient community by:
(1) Identifying/understanding when weather moves
from being a nuisance to a problem;
(2) Defining “thresholds” to determine when
projected future changes could become issues; and
(3) Enhancing planning efforts through increased
collaboration.
Project Timeline
Funded by:
Shared Learning Dialogue (SLD) #1
Tuesday, February 2nd, 9am-4pm
Branigan Cultural Center, City of Las Cruces
-Develop a collaborative working group
-Explore how extreme weather affects your work
-Present historical weather trends
-Define the “threshold” concept and work together to identify critical thresholds
-Present projected changes in extreme weather and climate to Las Cruces
Threshold-based Modeling
-Finalize thresholds in follow up conversations
-Future projections modeled by ATMOS Research
SLD #2 (workshop)
-Share thresholds information and results of modeling work
-Development of project ideas ($10,000 grant available to the city)
Execution of Projects
-Work to implement projects
-Final engagement: potential webinar to discuss project results
Example from Year 1: Boulder, CO
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Population: 100,000
Located where the Rocky Mountains meet the Great Plains
Semi-arid climate, high climate variability
Subject to floods, droughts, wildfires, extreme winds, winter storms
Participants in SLDs: city utilities, water resources, open space and
parks, forestry, planning, fire and rescue; city chief resilience officer;
county emergency management, county sustainability; Boulder
Community Hospital, Mental Health Partners; Western Water
Assessment; Western Adaptation Alliance
Timeline: Boulder, CO
• Dec ‘14: SLD #1 focused on historical weather and
climate problems for the city, began threshold
identification
• Feb – Apr ‘15: Threshold identification and
refinement
• Jul ‘15: Short webinar on thresholds identified
• Sept ‘15: SLD #2 focused on climate projections at
identified thresholds, brainstormed preparedness
actions
• Oct ‘15 – Jan ‘16: Determining preparedness and
resiliency actions
Outcomes: Boulder, CO
• Identified Thresholds:
• Extreme heat:
• Days per year with maximum temperature above 85F, 90F, 95F
• Nights per year with minimum temperature above 32F, 75F
• Multi-day (3+) heatwaves defined by maximum temperature
above 90F, 95F
• Multi-day (3+) heatwaves defined by minimum temperature
above 75F
• Temperature swings greater than 50F, 60F, 70F in 3 days ->
important for urban tree planting
• Precipitation:
• Risk of exceeding the 99th percentile of daily wet-day
precipitation
• Amount of rain falling on the wettest day / 3 days / 5 days of the
year
• Increased incidence of historic drought conditions
Outcomes: Boulder, CO
• Preparedness project
• Range of potential changes, all of which will create new
challenges for city, highlighted need for broad action across
a range of city departments
• But many departments have little or no climate knowledge
• City has therefore decided to incorporate the materials
developed for and from this project into a climate change
curriculum
• Workshop series is initially for delivery to staff identified
from each department as the department climate lead, but
ultimately envisioned for all city staff.
Example from Year 1: Miami, OK
• Population: 10,000
• Two rivers run through
and near city
• Mild winters, relatively
hot summers
• Participants in SLDs:
Emergency managers,
police, fire, city
manager,
transportation,
hospital safety
director, public works,
USACE, NWS
Miami
Timeline: Miami, OK
• Jan ‘15: SLD #1 focused on historical weather and
climate problems for the city, began threshold
identification
• Feb – Apr ‘15: Threshold identification via phone
calls
• Jul ‘15: Short webinar on thresholds identified
• Nov ‘15: SLD #2 focused on climate projections at
identified thresholds, brainstormed preparedness
actions
• Dec ‘15 – Jan ‘16: Determining preparedness and
resiliency actions
Outcomes: Miami, OK
• Identified Thresholds:
• Flood – several, but 2.7 inches of rain in 2 days and 3.5
inches in 3 days most important
• Heat – Daytime heat index of 105°F, nighttime
temperature of 80°F for 2 or more days
• Ice – 0.5 inches with 15 mph winds
• Tornadoes
• Flooding main concern.
• Preparedness project still being finalized.
• FEMA Community Rating System, community outreach
with emergency preparedness kits as possibilities
Climate of Las Cruces: Past
Historical Climate of Las Cruces
• General climate is warm and dry, with a monsoonal climate
Source: Western Regional Climate Center
• Experiences multiple weather and climate extreme events including:
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Thunderstorms
Hail
High Winds/Blowing Dust
Snow/Ice
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Tornadoes
Flooding
Drought
Extreme Heat
• Deeper analysis in the “Climate of Las Cruces” document
Climate of Las Cruces: Future
Climate Variability vs. Change
• Climate Variability: Changes in characteristics of the average
weather
• Seasons to years to decades
• Largest year-to-year factor: ocean-atmosphere interactions
• El Niño/La Niña
• Climate Change: Changes in long-term averages and trends
• Can be difficult to identify, especially in areas with high variability
• Can affect the strength and timing of circulations and their
interactions
• Slight shifts in climate can have big impacts
• Increased frequency in extreme heat events and decreased
frequency in extreme cold events
Climate of Las Cruces: Future
Future Extreme Weather and Climate Patterns
• Changes are already occurring:
• Increased average temperatures
• Longer growing seasons
• Increased extreme events
• Longer heat waves
• Earlier snowmelt
• More arid  less soil moisture
Climate of Las Cruces: Future
Future Extreme Weather and
Climate Patterns
• Projected changes in overall climate,
storm tracks, and seasonal timing—
growing season onset and length,
monsoon onset and retreat
• Increasing exposure to episodes of
weather and climate extremes
(frequency, intensity)
Next Steps
• Join us for the first Shared Learning Dialogue on
February 2, 2016
• Register on the workshop website:
http://environment.arizona.edu/extreme_events_
project
• Complete the survey we send out
• Let us know if others should come to expand the
network
Questions?
Gregg Garfin
CLIMAS
[email protected]
(520) 626-4372
Sarah LeRoy
CLIMAS
[email protected]
(520) 260-4735
Lisa LaRocque
Sustainability Officer, City of Las Cruces
[email protected]
(575) 541-2177