Transcript Report on Warsaw COP19

Kyoto and Beyond
Report
on
Warsaw
COP19
The 12th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements
related to climate change
www.isciences.com
June 30, 2014
Introduction
Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international
climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992.
Report on Warsaw is a summary of the negotiations that transpired at COP19, the 19th
session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 9th session of the
Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol,
which was held Nov. 11 – 22, 2013 in Warsaw, Poland.
Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*:
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2008 Kyoto and Beyond
2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update
2010 Report on Copenhagen COP15
2010 Road to Cancun COP16
2011 Report on Cancun COP16
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2011 Road to Durban COP17
2012 Report on Durban COP17
2012 Road to Rio+20
2012 Report on Rio+20
2012 Road to Doha COP18
2013 Report on Doha COP18
* Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html
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Contents
Context
Outcomes
Climate Science
Looking Ahead
This presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text.
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Context: Climate Policy
In 1992 the UNFCCC established the goal of reducing global
greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) to “prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the climate system.”
Since then the global policy framework has continued to evolve.
1997 The Kyoto Protocol created an international legal framework within the UNFCCC
for emissions reduction targets during the period 2008-2012 for developed
countries.
2009 The Copenhagen Accord, conceived outside of the UNFCCC process, called for
voluntary emissions reduction targets achieved by 2020, and endorsed a cap on
global temperature increase of 2⁰C. The UNFCCC officially “took note” of the Accord.
2010 The Cancun Agreements acknowledged within the UNFCCC framework the
objective of keeping the average global temperature rise below 2⁰C.
2011 UNFCCC negotiators at COP17 in Durban, South Africa agreed to extend the Kyoto
Protocol until 2020 and called for a new agreement “applicable to all” to be
created by 2015 and enter into force in 2020.
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Context: Policy vs Reality
As the UNFCCC’s annual climate conference opened in Warsaw,
the world remained on a business-as-usual greenhouse gas
emissions pathway.
Current 2020 pledges, binding and voluntary, by developed and
developing nations contribute towards meeting the target of limiting
global average temperature increase to 2⁰C.
However, UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2013* concluded that current pledges are
insufficient. There is a significant “emissions gap” – between emissions levels expected
in 2020 if pledges are met, and levels needed by 2020 to meet the target.
As nations fail to act or fail to act aggressively, the cost of bridging the gap rises.
“The challenge we face is neither a technical nor policy one – it is political: the current pace of action is simply insufficient. The technologies to
reduce emission levels to a level consistent with the 2° C target are available and we know which policies we can use to deploy them. However, the
political will to do so remains weak. This lack of political will has a price: we will have to undertake steeper and more costly actions to potentially
bridge the emissions gap by 2020.” – Achim Steiner, UNEP Executive Director, The Emissions Gap Report 2013-Executive Summary, Nov 2013
* UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2013. GAP_EmissionsGapReport 2013_high-res.pdf
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Context: Warsaw as Host
Confidence in Poland’s leadership as host of a global climate conference was
challenged by a confluence of decisions that appeared to contradict the
UNFCCC’s mission, and by Poland’s environmental record.
A coal conference. The World Coal Association held a two-day conference
in Warsaw parallel to the COP19 climate talks.
A buy-out? Corporate sponsorship of COP19 included major Polish fossil
fuel companies.
A dismissal. COP19 President, Marcin Korolec, was dismissed as Poland’s
Minister of the Environment for “foot-dragging on…exploration for shale
gas and other fossil fuels.”*
Marcin Korolec
(Credit: Piotr Drabik via
Wikimedia Commons)
Poland relies on dirty coal for over 90 percent of its electricity production, has
blocked climate action over fears of economic impact, and failed to nationalize a
European renewables target.**
* Bloomsberg Business Week News, http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-11-20/polish-finance-chief-fired-in-cabinet-reshuffle ; ** DESMOGBLOG.COM,
http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/09/18/poland-partners-coal-and-oil-corporate-sponsors-cop19-climate-conference
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Context: COP19 Objectives
Delegates to Warsaw were charged with creating a pathway that would
enable elements of a universal climate agreement to be on the table ready
for discussion by 2014 at COP20 in Lima.
This successor to the Kyoto Protocol must be finalized in 2015 at
COP21 Paris in order to successfully enter into force in 2020 as
scheduled.
As established at COP17 Durban, progress must flow from the two
workstreams of the ADP (Ad-hoc Working Group on the Durban
Platform for Enhanced Action).
COP19 Opening
(Credit: Mateusz Wlodarczyk
via Wikimedia Commons)
The objectives for Warsaw were to:
 Intensify work on defining elements of the 2015 agreement (workstream 1);
 Reach clarity on the outcomes of raising ambition pre-2020 (workstream 2).
At COP19’s conclusion, outcomes were sparse on both objectives, fulfilling only the
most modest expectations.
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Outcomes: 2015 Treaty, Dissent
The means to define what would be required of whom in a new universal
agreement remained unresolved.
The 2011 Durban Platform stipulated that a 2015 agreement would be “applicable to all,”
a change that reflects a new global economy characterized by developing nations with
substantial GHG outputs. These nations are exempt under the Kyoto Protocol.
In Warsaw, discussions to begin defining this new structure
never materialized. The LMDC* bloc argued to preserve
their exempt (“Non-Annex I”) distinction as in the KP.
Connie Hedegaard
(Credit: UNFCCC Flickr)
Claudia Salerno
(Credit: UNFCCC Flickr)
EU climate chief, Denmark’s Connie Hedegaard, expressed frustration with the
failure to agree on an emissions cuts timetable, prompting Venezuela’s Claudia
Salerno of the LMDCs to accuse the EU of painting them as obstructionists.
The row threatened to shut down negotiations.
* LMDC – Like-minded Developing Countries (Bolivia, China, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, India, Iran, Iraq, Malaysia, Mali, Nicaragua, Philippines, Saudi
Arabia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Venezuela), adp_lmdc_workstream_1_20130313.pdf
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Outcomes: 2015 Treaty, “INDCs”
In an adopted decision that will shape the 2015 agreement,
COP19 introduced the term “intended nationally determined
contributions” (INDC), a move away from “commitments.”
This language leaves the character of the mitigation effort up to
each nation and avoids differentiation between developed and
developing countries.
The inclusion of “…without prejudice to the legal nature of the
contributions” leaves the legal character of the agreement open.
Parties are asked to communicate the substance of their contributions
by the first quarter of 2015 if they are “ready to do so.”
“To invite all Parties to
initiate or intensify
domestic preparations for
their intended nationally
determined contributions,
without prejudice to the
legal nature of the
contributions, …and to
communicate them well in
advance of the twenty-first
session of the Conference of
the Parties (by the first
quarter of 2015 by those
Parties ready to do so)…” –
COP19 Warsaw Decision
1/CP.19 Further Advancing
the Durban Platform,
Paragraph 2b, Nov 23, 2013
This outcome could prove unresponsive to the basic goal of keeping emissions
reductions within the +2⁰C target, and sets up a tight timeline for completing a
negotiating text at COP20 in Lima.
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Outcomes: Pre-2020 Ambition
COP19’s response to the task of accelerating pre-2020 mitigation ambition was
decidedly unambitious.
The COP19 decision contains no
ambition targets for 2020, but lots of
“urging,” “intensifying,” “facilitating,”
“inviting,” and “considering.”
Parties are urged to communicate,
implement or revisit their promised
emission reductions under the
Convention and KP2 QELROs*.
Annex I Countries 2012 Emissions
(Credit: UNFCCC)
Since KP2 covers only about 15% of global emissions, other countries must contribute to
the effort if the +2°C cap is to be achieved.
But the reality is that with KP2 yet unauthorized pending ratification of the Doha
Amendment*, there is no legally binding authority.
* QELRO – Quantified Emissions Limitation and Reduction Commitments, http://unfccc.int/essential_background/glossary/items/3666.php#top; as of June 23, 2014, 11 of
144 countries have ratified the Doha Amendment, https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/doha_amendment/items/7362.php
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Outcomes: “Loss and Damage”
COP19 created a mechanism to address loss and damage from climate change,
but the effort lacked sufficient substance.
Loss and damage due to climate change can result from slow onset
or extreme weather events. At COP18 it was agreed that COP19
would establish institutional arrangements to address loss and
damage in countries that are particularly vulnerable.
Typhoon Haiyan, Nov. 8, 2013
(Credit: NOAA Visualizations
via Wikimedia Commons)
Dutifully, COP19 created the Warsaw International Mechanism For Loss and Damage*
which promised to enhance knowledge, action, and support.
“Requests developed country Parties to provide developing country Parties with finance, technology and capacity-building,
in accordance with decision 1/CP.16 and other relevant decisions of the Conference of the Parties”
– Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, Paragraph 14; Nov 22, 2013*
However, the Mechanism merely “requests” that developed countries provide
financial support, and its three-year review process may be too little too late.
* Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, fccc.cp.2013.l.15.pdf;
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Outcomes: REDD+
COP19 enjoyed relative success in its adoption of seven
decisions in the Warsaw Framework for REDD-plus.
REDD+
The UN- REDD Programme is a UN
initiative on Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and forest Degradation
in developing countries. REDD+
includes the role of conservation,
sustainable management of forests
and enhancement of forest carbon
stocks.

financing – Financing must be results-based; an information hub for
transparency will be established on the REDD Web Platform.
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institutional arrangements – National REDD+ agencies should be created to
implement activities.

national forest monitoring systems – Countries must establish a transparent and consistent forest
monitoring system using remote-sensing and ground-based observations.

transparency and safeguards – Countries should submit a full public report every two years starting in
Dec. 2014 on how safeguards are being met to ensure that REDD+ is being implemented in equitable
ways.

technical assessment – Forest reference emission levels and forest reference levels (baseline) are subject
to a technical assessment.

measuring, reporting, verifying – MRV systems will be verified at the international level by a body that
includes experts from one developed and one developing country.
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drivers of deforestation – Private sector, NGOs, developed and developing countries are encouraged to
reduce drivers of deforestation.
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Climate Science: The Carbon Budget
Political realities aside, scientific realities remain. How much
carbon can we emit and still have a chance of limiting global
temperature increase to +2⁰C?
The concept of a “carbon budget” is a cap on total emissions – from the
beginning of the industrial revolution until the minute no emissions
reach the atmosphere – that might keep us below +2⁰C.
Any carbon over that budget must be left in the ground or emissions
captured.
To have a greater than 66% chance, the total cumulative budget is
1,000.GtC*, and we’ve already “spent” 515 (as of 2011).*
CARBON BUDGET:
Overdrawn by
2045?
“Surface temperatures will remain
approximately constant at
elevated levels for many centuries
after a complete cessation of net
anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
Due to the long time scales of
heat transfer from the ocean
surface to depth, ocean warming
will continue for centuries.
Depending on the scenario, about
15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will
remain in the atmosphere longer
than 1,000 years.” – IPCC AR5
2013 SFP pg 28
On a carbon intensive trajectory we could exhaust our budget
before the end of 2045 – a mere 32 years.*
* GtC-gigatonnes carbon; IPCC AR5 2013 SFP pg 27,WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf; IPCC 5th Assessment Report, WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf; WRI,
http://www.wri.org/blog/2013/09/world%E2%80%99s-carbon-budget-be-spent-three-decades#fnref:2
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Ahead: COP20 Lima
The UNFCCC will reconvene at COP20 in Lima, Peru Dec. 1-12, 2014.
Last stop? Lima is the last stop before nations of the world must come
together, pens in hand, at COP21 ready to sign a new all-inclusive global
agreement to limit GHG emissions.
Last opportunity? Lima may be the last opportunity for
Developed and Developing nations to prove they can
work together in an effective UNFCCC process.
Last chance? Lima may be the last chance for global
leadership on climate change. Meanwhile, regional,
sectoral, and corporate entities are feeling the heat.
What’s Next?
Dec. 1-12, 2014: COP20 Lima, 20th
Session of the Conference of the Parties to
the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change and the 10th Session of
the Conference of the Parties serving as the
Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto
Protocol
Watch for future installments of ISciences’ “Kyoto and Beyond” series at
http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html.
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Sources
BloombergBusinessweekNews. Nov. 20, 2013. Polish finance chief fired in Cabinet reshuffle. http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-11-20/polish-finance-chief-fired-incabinet-reshuffle
Harvey, Fiona. Nov. 22, 2013. Warsaw climate change talks falter as EU and developing countries clash. The Guardian.com.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/22/warsaw-climate-change-talks-emissions-cut-timetable-eu
International Institute for Sustainable Development. Nov. 26, 2013. Earth Negotiations Bulletin Vol. 12 No. 594 . http://www.iisd.ca/download/pdf/enb12594e.pdf
Larsen, Gaia, and Florence Daviet. November 2012. Safeguarding Forests and People. World Resources Institute. http://www.wri.org/publication/safeguarding-forestsand-people
Lefton, Rebecca, Gwynne Taraska, Jenny Cooper, with Ben Bovarnick. Dec. 4, 2014. Warsaw Climate Talks End with Foundation for a Global Agreement.
http://americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2013/12/04/80378/warsaw-climate-talks-end-with-foundation-for-a-global-agreement/
Levin, Kelly. Sept. 27, 2013. World’s Carbon Budget to Be Spent in Three Decades. World Resources Institute. http://www.wri.org/blog/2013/09/world%E2%80%99scarbon-budget-be-spent-three-decades
Pidcock, Roz. Oct. 23, 2013. Carbon briefing: Making sense of the IPCC’s new carbon budget. The Carbon Brief [blog]. http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/10/carbonbriefing-making-sense-of-the-ipcc%E2%80%99s-new-carbon-budget/
Selle, Caroline. Sept. 18, 2013. Poland Partners with Coal and Oil Corporate Sponsors for COP19 Climate Conference. http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/09/18/polandpartners-coal-and-oil-corporate-sponsors-cop19-climate-conference
UN REDD Programme. About the UN REDD Programme. http://www.un-redd.org/AboutUN-REDDProgramme/tabid/102613/Default.aspx. Accessed June 18, 2014.
UNFCCC. Dec. 11, 2011. Draft decision -/CP.17 Establishment of an Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action.
http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/durban_nov_2011/decisions/application/pdf/cop17_durbanplatform.pdf
UNFCCC. Global Map – Annex I. http://maps.unfccc.int/di/map/. Accessed June 24, 2014.
UNFCCC. Glossary of climate change acronyms. http://unfccc.int/essential_background/glossary/items/3666.php. Accessed June 20, 2014.
UNFCCC. Warsaw Framework for REDD-plus. http://unfccc.int/methods/redd/items/8180.php. Accessed June 18, 2014
UNFCCC. Nov. 22, 2013. Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage. http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/warsaw_nov_2013/insession/application/pdf/fccc.cp.2013.l.15.pdf
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Sources
United Nations Environment Programme. November, 2013. The Emissions Gap Report 2013. http://www.unep.org/pdf/UNEPEmissionsGapReport2013.pdf
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http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2013/portals/50188/Executive_summary_en.pdf
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Citation
When referencing this presentation please use the following citation.
ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Report on Warsaw COP19. A slideshow; 12th installment in the
series Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate
Change. June 30, 2014. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com.
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