Transcript The Paris Climate Change Agreement: game changer or more hot air?

The Paris Climate Change
Agreement: game changer or
more hot air?
John Lanchbery
Agreement
Summary
From 30th November to 12th December 2015, the
nations of the World met in Paris to conclude a new
treaty on climate change
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r
01.pdf
The agreement applies to all countries – not just
developed ones.
It sets a new, more ambitious target of keeping
temperature rise well below 2°C above preindustrial levels.
It sets up regular reviews of progress in meeting the
goal.
Applicable to all
Unlike the original Climate Change Convention
(1992) and the Kyoto Protocol (1997) the Paris
Agreement does not divide countries into
different groups.
It recognises that they have different capabilities
and that some should do more than others but
all must act:
“The efforts of all Parties will represent a
progression over time, while recognizing the
need to support developing country Parties for
the effective implementation of this Agreement.”
What Paris actually says
“Developed country Parties should continue taking the lead
by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction
targets. Developing country Parties should continue
enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to
move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction
or limitation targets in the light of different national
circumstances.
Support shall be provided to developing country Parties for
the implementation of this Article, in accordance with
Articles 9, 10 and 11, recognizing that enhanced support
for developing country Parties will allow for higher ambition
in their actions.”
What does this mean?
187 countries have submitted so-called Intended
Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UN.
These cover nearly all human-induced emissions.
Assuming they are carried out, they will keep global
average temperature to about 2.7°C.
This is not enough but it is a lot better than the 3 or 4°C
that we were heading for.
They will have to do much more to reach the global goal
that Paris set.
New Global Goal
The goal set in Paris is
“Holding the increase in the global average temperature to
well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above
pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would
significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate
change;”
This is significantly lower than the previous goal which was
to aim to stay below 2°C.
The Paris Agreement also asks the global climate science
body (IPCC) to advise “on the impacts of global warming
of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global
greenhouse gas emission pathways”.
Ramifications of the new goal
Implications for the EU and UK
Moving from likely 2°C to 1.5°C (>50%) by 2100.
Preliminary conclusion is that:
GHG emissions reductions in 2050 need to be
about 95-115% below 1990 levels.
Perhaps more for UK, Germany,etc.
(Rogelj et al. (2013) Nature, Rogelj et al. (2013), Nature Climate
Change.)
In other words, probably below “net zero”
emissions and removals by 2050.
Net zero – some concerns
According to the IPCC, the global carbon budget for staying
below 2°C is about 3,000 billion tonnes CO2.
We have used about 2/3 of this and and have only a rapidly
decreasing 1,000 billion tonnes left.
We therefore need to be cutting global emissions sharply
now - but we are not. Emissions continue to rise and the
longer they do the harder it becomes to meet the global
temperature goal.
It may not be possible to simply stabilise atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gases.
If we do not cut emissions hard and rapidly we may well have
to first overshoot the concentration needed and
then cut emissions sharply.
But ..
… as the IPCC says, “The vast majority of scenarios with
overshoot of greater than 35-50 ppm CO2eq
(concentration) deploy carbon dioxide removal (CDR)
technologies to an extent that net global CO2 emissions
become negative”
Net zero concerns
There are good and bad ways of doing CDR.
In most emissions pathways involving CDR it is assumed
that it will be used on a very large scale, taking land that is
currently used for something else, such as food production
or wildlife – in developing countries because cheaper.
In the models used for the IPCC’s report, the land use
change is typically large at more than a billion hectares.
In two cases it is colossal at more than 3 billion and
6 billion Ha.
There are about 1.5 billion Ha of cropland, 3.5 billion Ha of
pasture and 4 billion Ha of forests on the Earth’s
13 billion Ha land area.
Land use change for different
concentration scenarios
Reviews and ratchets: boring but
important
The first big stocktake of the Paris Agreement will be in
2018.
The IPCC will report back on its work on low emission
scenarios for 1.5°C.
There will be “a facilitative dialogue among Parties to take
stock of the collective efforts of Parties in relation to
progress towards the long-term goal” and
“to inform the preparation of nationally determined
contributions”.
It is hoped that countries will upgrade their pledges
(INDCs) accordingly for the 2021 start.
More reviews
Once the treaty gets underway, probably in 2021, there will be
a “global stocktake” every five years, starting in 2023. Two
years before each 5-year INDC is submitted.
The idea is that all countries will assess where we are in terms
of meeting the global goal and revise their INDCs accordingly.
There is no guarantee that any revisions will be sufficient.
There never is in international treaties.
It will, however, show the public precisely where we all are and
let governments know what they think.
There will be a mechanism “to facilitate implementation of and
promote compliance” but it will be “non-adversarial and nonpunitive”!
Some nice bits
In the preamble to the Agreement there is lots of good stuff,
for example.
“Recognizing the importance of the conservation and
enhancement, as appropriate, of sinks and reservoirs of the
greenhouse gases referred to in the Convention,”
“Noting the importance of ensuring the integrity of all
ecosystems, including oceans, and the protection of
biodiversity …”
“Also recognizing that sustainable lifestyles and sustainable
patterns of consumption and production, with developed
country Parties taking the lead, play an important role in
addressing climate change,…”
More good stuff – on forests
Article 5
• 1. Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as
appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases as referred
to in Article 4, paragraph 1(d), of the Convention, including forests.
• 2. Parties are encouraged to take action to implement and support
… policy approaches and positive incentives for activities relating to
reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and
the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and
enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries; and
alternative policy approaches … for the integral and sustainable
management of forests, while reaffirming the importance of
incentivizing, as appropriate, non-carbon benefits associated with
such approaches.
On money – and forests
• Also decides that … developed countries intend to
continue their existing collective mobilization goal
through 2025 in the context of meaningful mitigation
actions and transparency on implementation; prior to
2025 … shall set a new collective quantified goal from a
floor of USD 100 billion per year, taking into account the
needs and priorities of developing countries.
• Recognizes the importance of adequate and predictable
financial resources, including for results-based
payments, as appropriate, for the implementation of
policy approaches and positive incentives for reducing
emissions from deforestation and forest
degradation.