Transcript Conservation*s Challenges: Global Problems

Global Climate
Change:
Effects on Biodiversity
Warren G. Abrahamson
Biology Department
Bucknell University
Threat: Impacts of  CO2
Atmospheric CO2
CO2 has increased ≈25% in 100 yrs.
Ice Core CO2
Global Mean Temperatures:
Rising Faster with Time
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007
Period
Rate
50 0.13  0.03
100 0.07  0.02
Years C/decade
Projected Patterns of
Precipitation Change
United Nations IPCC
April 2007
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Winter
Summer
Bluish = more precipitation to high latitudes
Reddish = less precipitation to most low latitudes
Global Climate Change:
Effects on Biodiversity
Organisms and/or biological communities
are experiencing:
1. Phenology changes
2. Population declines
3. More frequent & severe disturbances
4. Species shifts
5. Increases of invasive species
6. Impacts to agriculture/forestry
Global Climate Change:
Effects on Biodiversity
Organisms and/or biological communities
are experiencing:
Causing a mismatch between
Peak of food availability &
1. Phenology changes
food needs for nestlings
(Earlier spring activity)
Birds nesting & laying eggs earlier
Trees leafing out earlier
Earlier flowering of plants
(Bertinet
(Ahola
2008;
al. 2008;
Thompson
Tombre
andetClark
al. 2008;
2008; Menzel et al. 2006)
Husek and Adamik 2008; Both et al. 2006)
Both et al. 2006
Global Climate Change:
Morris
Arthur
Phillip Dustan
Organisms and/or biological communities
are experiencing:
1. Phenology changes
2. Population declines
Alexander Bogolyubov
Effects on Biodiversity
Adelie penguin populations declined by 1/3 over past 25
years (Antarctic sea ice habitat declining)
Coral reefs declining
(rising seawater temperatures)
Cool-climate communities (e.g., spruce-fir
aspen-birch)
(Emmerson and Southwell 2008;
(Baker et al. 2008; Wilson et al. 2008)
predicted
to decline >90% in USA Hinke et al. 2007)
Decline of Carysfort Reef (Florida)
(Botkin et al. 2007; Gullison et al. 2007)
Global Climate Change:
Effects on Biodiversity
Enyalioides palpebralis
Organisms and/or biological communities
are experiencing:
1. Phenology changes
2. Population declines
Tropical ecotherms narrower tolerance
& live closer to physiological optima
than high-latitude species
Consequently, more vulnerable to
climate thermal change
(Tewksberry et al. 2008. Putting the heat on
tropical animals. Science 320: 1297-1297)
Global Climate Change:
Effects on Biodiversity
Organisms and/or biological communities
are experiencing:
1. Phenology changes
2. Population declines
3. More frequent & severe disturbances
Lake Michigan
Ludington Lighthouse
Nov 2008
Sea level rise & enhanced storms
Alter 25-80% of USA coastal wetlands
Catastrophic impacts on low-lying countries (e.g., Bangladesh)
Increased incidence of fire in xeric communities
Global Climate Change:
Effects on Biodiversity
Organisms and/or biological communities
are experiencing:
1. Phenology changes
2. Population declines
3. More frequent & severe disturbances
4. Species shifts
Shifts in Species
Distributions due to
Climate Change
Netherlands
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
2003
Comma Butterfly
Eurosta solidaginis
“gigantea” race gall
Shifts in Species
Some Need It Cold
Distributions due to
Shift
in Species Range
Climate
Change
Southern-most population
moved 130 miles north
Gall-inducing fly
Eurosta solidaginis
2003
Southern-most population of
“gigantea” host race of
Eurosta solidaginis
X
●
1999
W.G. Abrahamson, unpublished data
12
Shifts in Species
Pygmy Skunk
Distributions due to Distribution Shifts
Climate Change
with Climate Change
A Reserve to Protect
Pygmy Skunk in 2000
Inadequate by 2050
Hannah et al. 2007
Shifts in Community A Reserve to Protect
Glacier
National
Park
Species
in
1910
Distributions due to
Est. 1910
Inadequate before 2100
Climate Change
Climate change will cause shifts
in species distributions &
will impact ecological reserves
Shifts in Distributions
Temperate-zone climate regions will shift
toward the poles:
>10% of species unable to survive warmer climates
Extinction if they can’t migrate to new localities
Habitat fragmentation will slow or prevent migration
“Island” constrained species have
nowhere to go –
They face extirpation or extinction
Miller-Rushing and Primack 2004, Malcolm et al. 2006, Sekercioglu et al. 2008
Shifts in Distributions
Temperate-zone climate regions will shift
toward the poles:
Dries Buytaert
Most impacted:
Limited-distribution, poor-dispersal species
Advantage to:
Widely distributed, easily dispersed species
Miller-Rushing and Primack 2004, Malcolm et al. 2006, Sekercioglu et al. 2008
Global Climate Change:
Effects on Biodiversity
Organisms and/or biological communities
are experiencing:
1. Phenology changes
2. Population declines
3. More frequent & severe disturbances
4. Species shifts
5. Increases of invasive species
Invasive Species
Warmer conditions & elevated CO2 levels may favor
invasive species & outbreaks of pest species
♀ ovipositing
Asian-origin Japanese
European/Asian-origin
Hemlock Woolly
Gypsy
Honeysuckle
Adelgid
Moth
Global Climate Change:
Effects on Biodiversity
Organisms and/or biological communities
are experiencing:
1. Phenology changes
2. Population declines
3. More frequent & severe disturbances
4. Species shifts
5. Increases of invasive species
6. Impacts to agriculture/forestry
Climate Change Could Devastate Crops
Examples:
By 2030:
Southern Africa could
lose >30% of its main
crop, maize
Southern Asia could
lose >10% of regional
staples, including rice,
millet & maize
Crop Importance
Production Impact (%)
Red =
More important
Orange =
Important
Yellow =
Less important
Production Impact (%)
Lobell et al. 2008. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030.
Science 319: 607-610.
Pennsylvania:
Ag/Forestry Possible Impacts
Union of Concerned Scientists, Oct 2008
Faced with Huge Challenges:
To save biodiversity,
need global action
Edward Abbey
wrote…
“…love of the wilderness is more than a
hunger for what is always beyond reach; it
is also an expression of loyalty to the
earth which bore us and sustains us, the
only home we shall ever know, the only
paradise we ever need – if only we had the
from Desert Solitaire 1968`
eyes to see.”