Transcript Throop FtN
Current & Future Ecological Responses to Climate Change 2090-2099 IPCC, 2007 Dr. Heather Throop NMSU Biology Climatology is easy… 2090-2099 IPCC, 2007 Complexities of understanding biological responses - interactions between organisms - short vs. long term patterns - extremes, not averages, may be important Climate Change Does Not Occur in a Vacuum • • • • Increasing urbanization and sprawl Landscape fragmentation Air & water pollution Elevated atmospheric CO2 Ways to Study Ecological Impacts • Observations • Manipulative experiments • Computer simulations Natural Environment Research Council, UK • 4th Assessment Report -- 2007 • Consensus report • >1200 authors • >2500 expert reviewers • >130 countries There is medium confidence that approximately 2030% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5-2.5ºC (relative to 19801999). As global average temperature exceeds about 3.5ºC, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40-70% of species assessed) around the globe. IPCC, SPM 2007 Biological Impacts • • • • Physiology Phenology (timing) Community composition & disease Range shifts Biological Impacts • • • • Physiology Phenology (timing) Community composition & disease Range shifts Phenology • Timing of a biological activity • Examples: – Spring leaf-out – Fall leaf drop – Migratory bird arrival Earlier Spring Events • Documented Shifts Earlier: – Flowering & leafing, Europe & N. America (1 - 3 days earlier/decade) – Butterfly breeding, UK – Amphibian breeding, UK – Bird migration & breeding, Europe & N. America Summary of spring phenology: 61 studies, 694 species, past 50 years Root et al. (2003) Nature Pied Flycatcher, The Netherlands Mismatch between timing of hatching & food abundance population declines Early caterpillar peak Late caterpillar peak Both et al. (2006) Nature Later Fall Events? • Less clear than spring • Delay of leaf color changes in Europe Community Composition • Climate changes may affect species differentially • Changes in abundance of one species (including pathogens) may affect other species Southern Switzerland Walther et al. 2002 Nature Climate change likely to increase severity/frequency of disease outbreaks population declines & extinctions Protozoan on monarchs Fungus sea fans Distemper outbreak lions Fungus leaves C. D. Harvell et al. (2002) Science Hawai’i ~60 of 100 endemic bird species currently extinct Harvell et al. (2002) Science Benning et al. (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. Coral Bleaching • Corals highly vulnerable to thermal stress • 1-3ºC sea surface temperature increases: frequent bleaching, widespread mortality Photos: Wikipedia.org Range Shifts • Climate changes affect species range • Changes in – Latitude (towards poles) – Elevation Range Shifts Summary including >1,700 species: • recent biological trends match climate change predictions • range shifts average: 6.1 km/decade toward the poles OR 6.1 m/decade upward Parmesan & Yohe (2003) Nature Other Range Shifts • Treeline: Europe & New Zealand • Arctic & alpine plants: Alps, Alaska – 1-4 m/decade • Birds in Britain – 19 km N in 20 years • Foxes, Canada Can we count on range shifts as a “solution”? “ I hope I have justified the conviction, shared by many thoughtful people from all walks of life, that the problem can be solved. Adequate resources exist. Those who control them have many reasons to achieve that goal, not least their own security. In the end, however, success or failure will come down to an ethical decision, one on which those now living will be defined and judged for all generations to come.” E.O. Wilson (2001) The Future of Life