Transcript ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT ON AQUACULTURE

ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT
ON AQUACULTURE AND FISHERIES IN CEE
Dr. Mahesh Kumar Singh
INTRODUCTION
 Scientific findings indicate that aquatic climate change impacts are
becoming more apparent and will continue to have a profound effect on
the productivity of fisheries and the distribution of fish stocks around the
world.
 From a social and economic point of view, it is clear that the effects of
climate change will result in the redistribution of costs and benefits for the
fisheries sector and for coastal communities, but how much, when and to
whom these benefits and costs will flow are less clear.
 In this regard, there is a need for fisheries policy makers to develop
strategies and decision-making models to adapt to climate change under
uncertainty, while also taking into account social and economic
consequences.
Impact pathways of climate change
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Global
Warming
Physical Changes in oceans,
lakes and rivers,
including…
Impacts varying by region/location
Heat
content and
temperature
Salinity and
stratificatio
n
Ocean
circulation
and
upwelling
Impacts varying by region and adaptive capacity of
fish and ecosystems to respond to the physical
changes above
Physiological,
spawning &
recruitment
processes of
fish
Primary
production
(diatoms and
phytoplankton)
Secondary
production
e.g.
zooplankton
Acidificati
on &
chemical
changes
Sea level rise
& change in
lake levels &
river flows
Sediment
levels
Frequency
and
severity of
extreme
events
Low
frequency
climate
variability
e.g. ENSO
Species
invasion
and
disease
Food web
impacts
Impacts on fish and
ecosystems, including…
Distribution
of fish
(permanent
&
migrations)
Abundanc
e of fish
Effects on fishers, livelihoods,
trade, and wider
economy/society
Phenology
e.g. timing
of natural
phenomen
a
Climate change implications for fishers
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Direct biophysical changes
• Catch/production volumes and mix
Direct extreme events impacts
• Days at sea lost to poor weather
•Safety
• Loss/damage to assets (vessels, gear, cages)
Indirect impacts; changes in…
• Fishing and aquaculture strategies (location, target species, seasonality, fishing gears,
genetic modification)
• Value-added and profits
• Employment
• Fish as food (availability, stability, access, utilisation of different species)
• Ability of fisheries to act as livelihoods safety net
• Balance of fish/fish farming income compared to income from other sources in households
i.e. fish as a part of rural livelihoods
• Costs required for adaptation
Climate change implications for national
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economies
Direct impacts; changes in…
•Volume and species mix available
•Damage to onshore coastal fisheries infrastructure
•Coral reef cover
Indirect impacts; changes in…
•Rent generation/extraction by government from sector
•Fish sector exports (balance of payments, forex earnings, competitiveness)
•Fish prices
•Balance of benefits from fishing vs. aquaculture, marine vs. freshwater, and
fisheries sector vs. other sectors
•Fish as food
•Balance of fish for domestic and export trade
•Multiplier effects of fishing and aquaculture
•Displacement and conflict
•Sector investment
•Costs of adaptation
Impacts of
climate
change
specifically
on fish trade
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Impacts of climate change specifically
on trade include:
 Increasing severity of extreme events, sea level rise and changes in flood
regimes
 Variability of supplies due to increasing seasonal and annual variations in
catches
 Major discontinuities in supply due to damage to infrastructure
 Physical impacts on biomass and location of fish available for catching
and then trade
 Adaptive measures affecting marketing chain (i.e. switch to different
species, to aquaculture)
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These impacts in turn likely to affect
 Trade volumes and values
 Domestic vs export trade
 Traded vs subsistence
 Balance of marine/inland, wild/farmed
 Contribution of fish to total exports
 Balance of trade and forex earnings
 Value-added and profits from trade
 Ability to sell licences to foreign vessels
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Impacts of climate change on trade:
important caveats
 Climate change just one of many factors affecting fisheries and
related trade.
 Time-scales
 Uncertainties in climate change models, and a lack of resolution in
estimations at country level
 Quantitative projections not possible, but can describe types of
changes and pathways
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Vulnerability to climate change
Exposure: The nature
and degree to which
fisheries production
systems are exposed to
climate change
Sensitivity: Degree to
which national
economies are
dependent on fisheries
and therefore sensitive to
any change in the sector
Potential impact: All
impacts that may occur
without taking into
account planned
adaptation
Adaptive capacity:
Ability or capacity of a
system to modify or
change to cope with
changes in actual or
expected climate stress
= Vulnerability
-
Case Studies:
-Hungary
- Czech Republic
- Serbia
- Romania
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Case studies: What we are doing..
 Presenting baseline indicators of dependency, exposure and
adaptive capacity;
 Providing information on current trade; and
 Outline possible climate change impacts and consider how the
baseline figures, the status quo, and current trade might be affected
by climate change
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Trade status in case study countries
presented in terms of:
 Volume and value of exports
 Main markets
 Main product forms
 Main competitors
• Main stakeholders
• Value-added and
profitability
• Foreign licences
• Trends in above
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What can countries do to maintain
trade competitiveness
 Adapt
 Mitigate
both can
 ensure that production levels are maintained or increased on a
sustainable basis for trade, and to assist with safeguarding of private
sector profits; and
 include policy options that are very specifically trade-related, and which
provide opportunities that could result in competitive advantages being
gained by countries implementing them
Adaptation at fisher/community level
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Impact of climate
change on fisheries
Reactive/
anticipatory
Potential adaptation measures
Access higher value markets/shifting targeted species
Increase effort or fishing power
Reduced yields
Reduce costs to increase efficiency
Diversify livelihoods
Exit the fishery
Diversify livelihood portfolio
Increased variability of fisheries
Engage with insurance schemes
Migration
of
fishing
effort/strategies
and
Change in distribution of fisheries processing/distribution facilities
Exit the fishery, or focus on other ways to maintain
Reduced profitability
profits
Add new or improved physical flood and coastal
defences
Vulnerability of infrastructure Managed retreat/accommodation
and communities to flooding, sea
Rehabilitate infrastructure, design disaster response
level rise and storm surges
Set up early warning systems, education
Increased dangers of fishing
Invest in improved
communications
vessel
stability,
Either
Either
Either
Either
Either
Either
Anticipatory
Either
Either
Anticipatory
Either
Anticipatory
Anticipatory
safety and
Anticipatory
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Adaption at national level
 Fisheries management frameworks supportive of sustainability
 Strategies for infrastructure (ensuring there are safe havens, and
climate proofing developments)
 Disaster preparedness
 Ensuring an enabling business environment
 Support for technological developments facilitating adaptive
measures
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Adaption at national level, cont’d.
 Manage declining incomes if fish catches fall, and efforts aimed at
diversification
 Aquaculture development
 Ecosystem adaptation (e.g. support for wetlands: provide protection
and breeding/nursery areas)
 Ensure policy coherence
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Mitigation
 Technical innovations to reduce fuel usage and
emissions in fishing vessel engines
 Promotion of fuel-efficient fishing methods (e.g.
static methods rather than trawling), through
differential licensing conditions and/or
decommissioning support;
 Research into support for low impact aquaculture
e.g. herbivorous aquaculture species
 Improvements in building design and handling
practices e.g. through better insulation in ice plants,
freezing plants;
 'Environmentally-friendly' technologies; and
Thank you!