Transcript El Nino and Climate Change

El Nino and Climate Change - The case of the Kenya tea
El Nino and Climate Change
The
case
of
the
Kenya
tea
industry
industry
Insert your text here.
1
TEA IN KENYA: AN IMPORTANT CASH CROP
Insert your text here.
-Source of livelihood to (Directly and Indirectly) about 3million Kenyans and their families
-Contributes to the national economy (26% of export earnings; 4% GDP)
-A rural based enterprise & contributes to rural poverty alleviation
-Contributes to Environmental conservation / Carbon sink- sequestration
2
Significance of El Nino & Climate Change (CC)
• El Nino – Weather phenomenon associated with warming of the
sea surface in the pacific; In Eastern Africa, it results in increased
rainfall depending on strength (or even drought-La Nina), Occurs
every 2-6 yrs in Eastern Africa, Last experienced in 1986/7, 91/92,
94/95, 2002/3, 04/05, 06/07/09/10,15/16, depending on strength
can result in 10-20% increase in tea yield or even up to 20%
decrease.
• Frequency of El nino is associated with CC.
• CC impacts on: Environment, Human health, Food security,
Agriculture, Economic activities, Natural resources and Physical
Infrastructure
3
Is there Evidence of Climate Change at the Global level?
Warmest 12 years:
1990,1995, 1997,1998, 1999,2000, 2001,
2002, 2003,2004,2005,2006—2015/2016
50 0.1280.026
100 0.0740.018
4
Further evidence of climate change- The Sea Level
• Observations since 1961 show that the average temperature of the global
ocean has increased
• Such warming causes
seawater to expand,
contributing to sea level rise.
• There has been observed
sea level rise from the 19th to
the 20th century.
6
Is there any Evidence of Climate change in E. Africa?
Melting of Mt. Kilimanjaro glaciers in East Africa
About 82 % of the icecap that
covered Mt Kilimanjaro surveyed
in 1912 is now gone.
If the recession continues at the
present rate, the majority of the
glaciers on Kilimanjaro could
vanish in the next 15 years
7
WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA?
Some climate change signals have been evidenced in the Kenya.
The change signals observed include:
 temperature rises;
Decreasing and erratic rainfall trends;
 melting and retreat of mountain glaciers eg on Mt Kenya;
 increasing frequency of extreme climate events including
floods, droughts, frost, hail etc;
SOME OF THE ABOVE HAVE BEEN EVIDENCED IN TEA
AREAS
8
Rainfall Trends in a major Tea zone (Kericho-TRI, Kenya)
Total Rainfall (mm)
3000
2500
2015
2000
1500
Total Rainfall (mm)
1000
500
0
1958
2015
9
TOTAL RAINFALL (MM)
Detailed review of rainfall Trends in a major Tea zone (Kericho-TRI,
Kenya)
3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
y = -4.8249x + 11673
R² = 0.0474
1200
1000
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
YEAR
There is an annual decrease of 4.82mm over a period of 52 years.
Rainfall decreased by more than 250mm over the years.
10
Rainfall Trends in the major Tea growing region of Kericho, Kenya
2250
2200
Rainfall (mm)
2150
y = 11.429x2 - 134.57x + 2386
R2 = 0.824
2100
2050
2000
1950
1900
1850
1969
1979
1989
Year
1999
2009
There is a rainfall decrease of 65mm (R² = 0.803) for every ten-year period average
11
Trends in Soil water deficits in a major tea zone- Kericho, Kenya
Soil Water Deficits (mm) -Decades
Year
0
-50
1974
1984
1994
2004
SWD (mm)
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
-350
-400
-177.7
-234.7
-291.7
y = -57x - 120.7
R2 = 1
-348.7
12
Trends in Temperature in a major Tea Area- Kericho
Mean Air Temp (⁰C)
17.5
2015
17.0
16.5
16.0
15.5
15.0
Mean Air Temp (⁰C)
14.5
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
1958
2015
There is a general increase of temperature
13
Detailed review of trends in Temperature in a major Tea
Area- Kericho
There is an annual rise of 0.0160C (R² = 0.331) over a period of 52 years
14
Change in Mean air temperature (Decades) in Kericho
16.6
Temperature (0C)
16.4
16.2
16
y = 0.2x + 15.508
R² = 0.8524
15.8
15.6
1969
1979
1989
1999
2009
Years
There is an average rise of 0.20C (R² = 0.852) for every ten-year period
This is a temperature increase of 10C over the years.
15
Magnitude of change in Kenyas’ major Tea areas
REGION
TREND
MAGNITUDE (T max)
Western
Central
Increase
Increase
0.5 –2.1C
0.1- 0.7C
Increase
Increase
(T min)
0.8-2.9C
0.8- 2.0C
Western
Central
16
Monthly trends for radiation and tempt. in a tea zone, Kericho, Kenya
Risk
Monthly radiation and mean air temperatures are correlated
17
Total tea production in Kenya
500,000,000
450,000,000
400,000,000
2015
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
TOTAL PRODUCTION
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
1963
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53
18
Total tea production and average yields in Kenya
400
3000
Mild-Strong El Nino
Drought
2500
350
300
Total Production
2000
250
200
1500
150
100
1000
Average Yield (kg ha-1 yr-1)
Total Production (106 kg yr-1)
450
50
-
500
Year
19
Tea Productivity average in Kenya and Research (TRI)
20
Mean air temperature and tea yields at Timbilil Tea Estate, TRFK
SWD
Except for Jan-April, increase in tempt. results in increase in production
21
Monthly radiation and tea production at Timbilil Tea Estate
Tea yields are not correlated to levels of radiation
22
•In Kericho, Yield decreases linearly
with increase in SWD
Yields (Kg mt/ha)
•Critical SWD is 120mm
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
•Seasonal SVPD affects yields
April- August
Sept -Nov.
y = -8.5133x + 1906.6
R2 = 0.747
Dec -March
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Soil water deficit (mm)
Figure 4.5. Effect of seasonal SWD on annual seasonal yields (2003-2005)
23
Current suitability map of tea production areas in Kenya
According to the MAXENT
model, most suitable
areas are concentrated in
the higher areas of
districts: Meru, Embu,
Kirinyaga, Nyeri,
Murangá, Kiambu, Kisii,
Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet,
Narok, Migori and Homa
Bay.
24
Future suitability of tea production areas: 2020
In 2020 suitable areas
start shifting but the
average suitability in
all districts remain
nearly constant.
Productivity to remain
almost the same and
tea quality may be
maintained.
25
Future suitability of tea production areas: 2050
In 2050 tea production
according to its climatesuitability is predicted
to be more concentrated
in Central Kenya.
Productivity may
decrease in West of Rift
Valley. Tea quality would
also be compromised.
26
Relationship of suitability & altitude
• With progressive climate
change, areas at higher
altitudes benefit on teasuitability
• Optimum tea-producing
zone is currently at an
altitude between 1500 and
2100 masl
• By 2050:
• suitability will increase to an
altitude between 2000 and
2300 masl
• areas at altitudes between
1400 and 1900 masl will suffer
the highest decrease in
suitability
• areas around 2300 masl will
have the highest increase in
suitability
• Overall total production will
stabilize or decrease since
suitable areas will shrink
27
Other Extreme Weather Phenomena- eg HAIL cause significant crop losses –
(Hail in Kenya can cause crop loss of up to an average of 2m kg Mt/yr)
Hail is
unpredictable.
The number of
incidences
and intensity vary
year to
Year.
28
FROST- is associated with dry weather conditions & damage is
exacerbated by high Fertilizer rates; incidences are increasing
4.50
y = -0.0711x2 + 0.9265x + 1.0026
2
R = 0.8895
Frost damage (No)
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0
60
120
180
240
Fertilizer rates (Kg N/ha)
29
Potential Interventions- Modification of the tea microclimateShade and shelter to militate against damage from extreme whether
events
Yields (Kgmt/ha)
Effect of shade tree species
on tea yield
3000
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
2200
Tree species
30
Tea Breeding to manage abiotic and biotic stress
Breeding stocks and their expected genetic contribution in the breeding programme
High yield
potential
TRFK 31/810
TRFK 303/5778
TRFK 301/4
TRFK 301/510
High quality
potential
Pest tolerance/
resistance
Drought
tolerance
High soil pH
tolerance
Cold tolerance
TRFK 6/89
GW Ejulu-L
EPK TN 15-23
TRFK7/93
TRFK 57/153
AHP SC31/373
AHP S15/103
TRFCA SFS150
TRFK 303/5778
EPK TN14-3
NDT Tai
EPK TN14-3
TRFCA SFS150
EPK C12
NRIT Yabukita6
EPK C12
EPK TN14-35
BBK
AHP
AHP
AHP
AHP
AHP
TRFK 303/11993
TRFK 54/404
TRFCA SFS1503, 10
AHP CG28U8644
TRFK 301/14
TRFK L/164
35
S15/109
SC12/289
SC31/37
CG28V9299
CG28U864
NRIT
Yutakamidori6
Genetic/Bioch
emical
Study
TRFK 12/21
TRFK K-Purple
TRFK 31/302
TRFK
311/2872,11
TRFK 382/17,
TRFK
TRFK
TRFK
TRFK
TRFK
382/27
386/27
371/17,11
56/8911
100/511
Diversification of the choice of tea germplasm in plantations
& deployment of tolerant germplam
31
Adoption of agronomic practices that contribute to soil moisture
conservation
62
0-15cm
% Soil moisture content
61
15-30cm
30-60cm
60
59
y = 0.0003x2 - 0.0841x + 60.747
58
R2 = 0.7943
57
2
y = 0.0003x - 0.07x + 59.729
56
2
R = 0.9546
55
54
Judicious use of
inputs eg optimal
rates of fertilizer
2
y = 0.0002x - 0.0582x + 56.903
R2 = 0.6213
53
52
0
50
100
150
200
Nitrogen rates
Water content decreases with increased fertilizer and soil depth.
32
Practical adaptation measures being undertaken by Tea industry
• Efficient management of soil and water resources -efficient water use and
enhanced water storage, (Precision farming and Judicious use of inputs)
• Catchment protection (Bamboo)
• Environmental conservation and Control of deforestation
• Riverbank protection
• Sustainable management of forests -Planting of hedges and natural barriers
• Soil Water Conservation measures and Mulching
• Crop diversification
• Water harvesting structures (Micro-catchment)
• Development and Growing of low water demand (drought resistant)
cultivars/varieties
• Identification of alternate sources of energy (wind, solar, hydro)
• Consideration of crop insurances
33
The Way Forward
The following long term measures are also being implemented:
•
•
•

•
•
•
Implementation of climate change programmes – with clear Strategies, policies, and
projects eg enactment of the Tea Act 2012 (development of Ad valorem levy to finance
research and regulation of tea); tea task force report; review of the “brown line” etc
Tea sector is currently screening for the genes responsible for drought tolerance in teathe work will assist in crop improvement programmes
The Kenyan tea industry is exploring to negotiate for Carbon credits; or opportunities
for reducing carbon emissions
The industry is continuously carrying out systematic analysis of current weather
patterns in Tea growing Zones
Closer collaboration with the private sector in resource mobilisation to support CC
adaptation activities
Awareness creation and farmer education not to plant tea outside the gazetted areasOffer alternatives eg plant fuel wood for tea factories or other crops
Intensification of data and information collection and forecasting
34
35