Transcript presentation 1

DESIGN GUIDELINE FOR A CLIMATE
PROJECTION DATA BASE AND SPECIFIC
CLIMATE INDICES FOR ROADS: CLIPDAR
Matulla, Christoph*
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria
Namyslo, Joachim**
Andre, Konrad
Chimani, Barbara
German National Meteorological Service, Germany
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria
Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Austria
* [email protected]
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** [email protected]
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Structure of the presentation
 Introduction
 Data and Methods
 Results
 Outlook
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Data and Methods
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 Regional scale past &
climate change projections
 17 members (A1B)
• temperature, precipitation
 Continental scale past &
climate change projections
 8 members A1B, A2
• temperature 850hPa
 Cause Effect Tensor: CET2
& Climate Indices: CIs
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CET2:
CIs→Assets
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Possible future of cold winters
in Fennoscandia
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• Select coldest past seasons
• Apply an EOF analysis to
continental past data
• Calculate the first future time
coefficient
• Compare the near and far future
time coefficient to the past
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Possible future of hot summers
in the Iberian Peninsula
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• Select hottest past seasons
• Apply an EOF analysis to
continental past data
• Calculate the first future time
coefficient
• Compare the near and far future
time coefficient to the past
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Cold index days
in Central Europe
Climate indices (CIs)
• CI (frost days): Tmin<0°C
• CI (ice days): Tmax<0°C
• Compare the
far future (2071‒2100)
to past (1961‒1990)
conditions
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Frostdays
daysTmin < 0°C
Icedays
daysTmax < 0°C
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Warm index days
in Central Europe
Climate indices (CIs)
• CI (summer days): Tmax≥25°C
• CI (hot days): Tmax ≥ 30°C
• Compare the
far future (2071‒2100)
to past (1961‒1990)
conditions
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Summerdays
daysTmax ≥ 25°C
Hotdays
daysTmax ≥ 30°C
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Potential rutting days in
Central Europe
Climate indices (CIs)
• CI (hot days and tropical
nights): Tmax≥30°C and Tnight,min>20°C
• Compare the near
(2021‒2050) and
far (2071‒2100) future
to the past (1961‒1990)
conditions
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Near future (2021‒2050)
Far future (2071‒2100)
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Potential “landslides” in
Central Europe
Climate indices (CIs)
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Near future (2021‒2050)
• CI (mass movement day):
Pday>25.6 mm and P3day>37.3 mm
• Compare the near
(2021‒2050) and far
(2071‒2100) future to the
past (1961‒1990) conditions
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Far future (2071‒2100)
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Design Guideline - principles
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 Ensemble Approach (make ensemble statistics)
 Ensemble building: consider model diversity,
many members (enable 15th/85th Percentiles)
 Downscaling (proposal) =
= statistical regionalization + bias correction
 Internal climate variability: Averaging of climate
projection data (periods of 30 y, at least 10 y)
 Use preferably simple impact models
(otherwise: only a case study may be possible)
…
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Outlook
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 Enlarge the region stepwise by consistently
including further European countries
 Use new scenarios (RCPs of EURO-CORDEX)
 Avoid the mixing of datasets
 Ensure highest quality of data – no breaks
along borders
 Include air traffic and railway transport
 Expand the analysis to further CIs
(e.g. damage of bridges, water to street level)
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Acknowledgements:
• BMVBS/German Joint Research Programme KLIWAS:
Impacts of climate change on Waterways
and navigation - Searching for options of adaptation
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
• Autobahnen- und Schnellstrassen-Finanzierungs- AG
• Federal Ministry of Transport, Innovation and Technology
of the
‒ The CliPDaR
team ‒
Republic of Austria
• German Federal Highway Research Institute
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