Transcript ITALY – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate Change

EIONET/EPA networks Workshop on
climate change vulnerability, impact and adaptation
EEA, 27-28 november 2007
Regional impacts and vulnerability
The Mediterranean (Italy)
Franco Desiato, Domenico Gaudioso, Francesca Giordano
APAT – Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente e
per i Servizi Tecnici
Primary impacts indicators
(temperature, precipitation, …..)
Medium to long term forecasted change
(i.e. 2071-2100 versus 1961-1990)
of mean temperature, cumulated precipitation,…)
From high-resolution global or regional AOGCM
models ….
Temperature change - Southern Europe:
1900-2000 (observed); 2000-2100 (A1B scenario , 11 models)
Cumulated Precipitation change - 21 models ensemble
2080 - 2099 versus 1980 - 1999
DJF
Scenario A1B
JJA
%
Uncertainty by prediction models
Precipitation anomaly (mm) – Northern Italy - Winter
……..Primary impacts indicators
(temperature, precipitation, …..
Medium to long term forecasted change
BUT ALSO :
Current trends estimate from observations time series
IS NEEDED FOR:
• the knowledge of past/current impacts of climate change
• the continuous, in-progress verification of AOGCM forecasts
• the downscaling: impacts and vulnerability estimates are needed
at the local scale
Trend estimates from observations time series
Require time series homogenization:
17
16.5
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15.5
15
°C
hom
original
14.5
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13.5
13
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
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1991
1989
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1981
1979
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1975
1973
1971
1969
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1963
1961
12.5
year
• WMO WG on Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological
Databases;
• COST Action ES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate
series: an integrated approach
Mean temperature anomaly over Italy
Italy: 1961-2006 T = +0.94 °C
Global: 1961-2006 T  +0.7 °C
1980 – 2006 T = +1.54 °C
Cumulated precipitation anomaly 1961-2006
Northern Italy
Central Italy
Southern Italy
Primary impacts EXTREMES indicators
Example:
Set of indicators form the WMO CLIVAR Working
Group on Climate Change Detection:
• Frost days
• Summer days
• Tropical nights
• Cold days, cold nights
• Warm days, warm nights
• Maximum absolute temperature
• Minimum absolute temperature
Tropical nights - Italy
1961-2006  = +12,5 days/year
1978 – 2006  = +21 days/year
From the GREEN PAPER 4 out of the 6 most vulnerable areas
in Europe concern
Southern Europe and/or the Mediterranean:
• Southern Europe and the entire Mediterranean Basin due to the
combined effect of high temperature increases and reduced precipitation
in areas already coping with water scarcity
• Mountain areas, in particular the Alps, where temperatures increase
rapidly leading to widespread melting of snow and ice changing river
flows
• Coastal zones due to sea level rise combined with increased risks for
storms.
• Densely populated floodplains due to increased risks for storms,
intense rainfall and flash floods leading to widespread damages to builtup areas and infrastructure.
Areas of potential vulnerability to climate change
in Italy
Sensitivity to
desertification
1% Very low
63% Low
Hydro-geological risk
Areas at high risk: Pianura
Padano-Veneta, Versilia,
Fondi and Pontina plains.
33% Medium
3% High
1500km out of 8000km at
risk of erosion and flooding
Flooding risk
DISMED Project
Desertification
degradation of land in arid, semiarid and dry sub-humid areas. It
is caused primarily by human
activities and climatic variations
(UNCCD).
Areas at high risk: Sardinia,
Sicily, Puglia, Basilicata
Areas at high risk: 9,8% of
the Italian territory
- 4,1% floods
- 5,2% landslides
- 0,5% avalanches
Systems/Sectors of critical impacts for Italy
• MARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMS
• WATER RESOURCES
• BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS
• AGRICULTURE
• TOURISM
MARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMS
Some example of indicators:
CURRENT SITUATION
Sea level: unchanged
Area experiencing erosion and at flooding risk: 1.500 km of low-lying coasts
Coastal plains at risk: 33 Italian coastal plains
FUTURE SCENARIOS
Sea level rise of the Mediterranean Sea up to 38 cm by 2100
Area at flooding risk: 4.500 km2
North: 25,4%; Centre: 5,4%; South: 62,6%; Sardinia: 6,6%
WATER RESOURCES
Some example of indicators:
CURRENT SITUATION
Glaciers: current glacier retreat in the Alps (-51% km2 during the last 150 years)
Snow cover: reduction of length/quantity of snow
Since 1990 anticipation of spring melt period of 15 days at 2500 m
Po River flow: 391 m3/s (July 2007); historical average value 1.156 m3/s
FUTURE SCENARIOS
Glaciers: glacier retreat between 30% and 70% by 2100
loss of glaciers below 3500 m by 2050
Snow cover: decrease of snow cover duration (several weeks/each °C increase)
Drought events frequency: increase from 1/100 years to 1/50 years or less by 2070
Reduction of alpine rivers flow: up to 80% during the summer period by 2070
BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS
Some example of indicators:
CURRENT SITUATION
Forest area: 10,5 M ha (2005) = 35% national territory –> increasing
Plant species distribution: shift at higher altitudes during the 20th century (0,5 – 4
m/decade)
Plant phenology: mean anticipation of phenological phases (3days/decade)
FUTURE SCENARIOS
Plant species distribution: shift of tree line in alpine areas (100 m)
- 62% of mountain plant species by 2080 (A1 scenario)
Coastal wetlands: - 20% by 2080 (SRES scenarios)
ITALY – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate
Change
From the Italian National Conference on Climate Change and from
preparatory workshops, several indications emerge for the priority
actions to be undertaken by the Ministry of Environment, Land and
Sea.
By 2008 the Italian Ministry of the Environment, Land and Sea commits to
drafting a national sustainable adaptation and land protection strategy.
Two important outcomes of the conference:
- The CLIMATE MANIFESTO
- The first 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION
ITALY – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate
Change
The CLIMATE MANIFESTO points out the following needs:
- development of climate change mitigation policies
- coordination of mitigation measures with adaptation measures
- definition of a National Adaptation Plan to Climate Change
- promotion of measures to assist developing countries
- monitoring of progress at regular intervals through the National Conference
on CC
The first 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION concern:
- research and knowledge work
- extreme events
- energy savings
- marine resources
- new models of consumption
- tourism
- water resources
- health
- agriculture
- meteo-climatic early warning
- coasts
- public awareness
- environmental incentives for labour and enterprises
SPAIN – National Plan for the adaptation to climate change
2004: previous step, ECCE project “A preliminary general
assessment of the impacts in Spain due to the effects of climate
change”
02-2006: presentation at National Climate Council, Coordination
Commission for Policies on Climate Change, Sectoral Conference of
Environment
03-2006: public consultation
07-2006: formal approval at CCPCC
Every 4 years: monitoring and assessment Report of the National
Plan of adaptation to climate change, that will guide further
developments
FRANCE – National Strategy for the adaptation to climate
change
The French National Strategy for the adaptation to climate
change has been drafted by the National Observatory for the
Effects of Global Warming.
It represents an intermediate step between the scientific outputs
and the drafting of an action plan.
November 2006: approval by the Inter-Ministry Committee for
Sustainable Development
Four objectives:
- to assure safety and public health
- to limit the increase of inequalities in front of the risk
- to limit the costs through preventive measures
- to preserve the natural heritage
PORTUGAL – The SIAM Project (Scenarios, Impacts and
Adaptation Measures)
AIM: to carry out the first integrated assessment of the impacts of
climate change in the country.
The work focuses on a core set of socio-economic and biophysical
impacts, and is based upon scenarios of future climate produced
by climate models.
Impacts on specific sectors: fisheries, forestry and biodiversity,
human health, water resources, agriculture, coastal zones, and
energy
SIAM II: application of the general methodology of project SIAM at
a smaller geographic scale in order to provide responses to
decision makers in the public sector.