Transcript Weather characteristics - British Embassy Warsaw

Adaptacja systemu ochrony zdrowia
w miastach do zmian klimatu
Adaptation of Health Care System in
Polish cities to climate change
Krzysztof Błażejczyk, Jarosław Baranowski
Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences
Anna Błażejczyk
Bioklimatologia. Laboratory of Bioclimatology and Environmental Ergonomics
Introduction
 Evidence of climate related diseases
 Relatioships between climate and diseases
 Predictions to the year 2100

The presentation bases on the results of:
NCN research project:
2011/01/B/ST10/06972 Assessment of climate
change impacts on population health in various
regions of Poland and predictions to 2100
and
Central Europe Programme of EU, co-financed by
the ERDF, in the frame of project no 3CE292P3
Development and application of mitigation and
adaptation strategies and measures for
counteracting the global Urban Heat Islands
phenomenon (UHI)
Materials and methods

Medical data were adapted from national and European
statistical data bases. The following climate related illnesses were
taking into consideration:
–
–
–
–
–
–
Salmonellosis intoxications (period 1999-2014),
Lyme boreliosis (1996-2014),
skin cancers (morbidity and mortality - 1999-2012),
influenza (1973-2014),
weather caused deaths (1990-2014)
mortality caused by dysfunctions of respiratory and circulatory systems
(1973-2012)
– deaths caused by extreme biothermal conditions (1993-2002)

Meteorological data consists of daily values of air temperature
(mean, max and min) and humidity, wind speed, precipitation
totals and days from the period 1973-2014, taken from NOAA
database.
Research method
A1B, A2 and B1 climate change scenario were applied
Evidence of health indicators
Mortality rates (per 100 000) for circulatory (UK) and
respiratory (UO) disorders in Poland, 1973-2012
Sources: Statistical Yearboors, GUS and WHO Mortality Data Base (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/statistics/mortality_rawdata/ en/index.html)
Zgony z wychłodzenia (liczba przypadków)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
Deaths caused by overcooling of an organism
in Poland, 1997-2014
Source: http://www.emdat.be/database
Grypa (zapadalność/100 tys.)
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
Rates (per 100 thousands) of influenza cases in
Poland, 1973-2014
Sources: Annual Health Yearbooks (GUS) and
Infectious diseases and poisonings in Poland,
PZH
2011
2013
2007
2009
2003
2005
1999
2001
1995
1997
1991
1993
1987
1989
1983
1985
1981
1977
1979
1973
1975
0
Borelioza (zapadalność/100 tys.)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Lyme boreliosis infections
(per 100 thousands) in Poland, 20032014)
Source: Infectious diseases and
poisonings in Poland, PZH-GIS
Salmonelloza (zapadalność/100 tys.)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Salmonella intoxications (per
100 thousands) in Poland, 1999-2014
Sources: Annual Health Yearbooks (GUS)
and Infectious diseases and poisonings
in Poland, PZH
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
Skin cancer morbidity (upper box) and mortality (lower box)
in Poland (per 100 000), 1999-2012
Źródło / Source: http://onkologia.org.pl/
Częstości (dni)
90
DSZ
80
DSC
70
R2 = 0.3991
60
50
40
30
20
R2 = 0.2133
10
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
0
Changes in frequency (in days) of biothermal conditions
causing great cold stress (DSZ) and great hot stress (DSC)
in Poland, 1966-2012
Mean values of relative risk of death (%) in days with great cold stress
(RRD_GCS) and with great heat stress (RRD_GHS) in selected Polish
cities, 1993-2001
City
Warszawa
Bydgoszcz
Toruń
Gdańsk
Lublin
Katowice
Łódź
Kraków
Poznań
Wrocław
Olsztyn
Białystok
Szczecin
Zielona Góra
Rzeszów
Average
Region
MAZ
K-P
K-P
POM
LBL
SLA
LOD, SWI
MAL
WIE
DOL, OPO
W-M
POD
ZAC
LUB
PDK
RRD_GCS
RRD_GHS
116.2
120.0
116.7
116.9
112.5
111.6
114.0
118.4
117.2
121.9
112.8
104.9
118.9
125.8
112.3
108.3
111.8
119.1
115.2
107.2
106.5
118.1
112.0
112.4
111.8
109.4
113.6
118.3
113.2
113.3
113.6
115.0
Standardized indicators (per 100 000 inhabitants) of daily mortality in selected cities
in Poland (1993-2001) observed at different categories of heat stress: great cold
stress (GCS), moderate cold stress (MCS), thermoneutral conditions (TN), moderate
heat stress (MHS), great heat stress (GHS)
City
Warszawa
Bydgoszcz
Gdańsk
Lublin
Katowice
Łódź
Kraków
Poznań
Wrocław
Białystok
Szczecin
Zielona Góra
Rzeszów
Olsztyn
Toruń
Average
Region
MAZ
K-P
Pom
LBL
SLA
LOD, SWI
MAL
WIE
DOL, OPO
POD
ZAC
LUB
PDK
W-M
K-P
Poland
GCS
MCS
TN
MHS
GHS
2.742
2.591
2.358
2.432
2.830
2.809
2.480
2.406
2.610
2.812
2.455
2.300
2.204
2.330
2.609
2.376
2.200
2.027
2.320
2.470
3.314
2.630
2.596
2.620
2.723
3.915
3.480
3.294
3.350
4.145
2.628
2.440
2.339
2.400
2.533
3.035
2.800
2.715
2.800
3.234
2.687
2.400
2.331
2.380
2.498
2.032
1.950
1.815
1.950
2.039
2.502
2.450
2.239
2.350
2.449
1.978
1.850
1.742
1.950
2.061
1.631
1.560
1.441
1.560
1.633
1.669
1.620
1.567
1.620
1.694
2.315
2.210
2.059
2.210
2.298
2.539
2.331
2.209
2.325
2.535
Predictions of heat / cold stress mortality rates
120000
Mortality due to great heat stress
A1B
100000
A2
80000
B1
60000
40000
20000
0
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Mortality due to great cold stress
120000
A1B
A2
100000
B1
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Predictions of skin cancer morbidity and mortality rates
30
Skin cancer morbidity (per 100 000)
29
A1B
28
A2
B1
27
26
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
4
Skin cancer mortality (per 100 000)
3.95
A1B
3.9
A2
B1
3.85
3.8
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Predictions of winter diseases rates
160
Overcooling deaths
A1B
140
A2
B1
120
100
80
60
40
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2500
2100
Influenza morbidity (per 100 000)
2000
A1B
A2
1500
B1
1000
500
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Predictions of summer diseases rates
45
Boreliosis infections (per 100 000)
40
35
30
A1B
A2
25
B1
20
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Predictions of respiratory and circulatory mortality rates
75
Respiratory mortality (per 100 000)
70
65
60
A1B
55
A2
B1
50
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
365
2090
2100
Cardiovascular mortality (per 100 000)
360
355
A1B
A2
350
B1
345
340
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Conclusions
 Climate
change will significantly influence
human health
 It will cause decrease or increase in particular
climate related diseases
 We expect increase in: heat stress mortality,
cardiovascular mortality, boreliosis infections,
skin cancer.
 There is expect decrease in: cold stress mortality,
respiratory mortality, overcooling mortality,
influenza morbidity.
Factors influence functioning of health care system (HCS) in Poland
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Economic factors consist of: stable financing of HCS (including education and
research), clear procedures of financial support of HCS units, financial
procedures of medical treatment, availability of medical services and
medicaments.
As physical factors we can list: specific meteorological conditions which
involve CRD, quality of drinking water, technical disasters (which effects can be
magnifying as oppressive weather conditions), air pollution due to urbanisation,
transport and industry, land use, especially presence of forested areas.
As social factors we should consider: working conditions especially for outdoor
occupation, age structure of society, standard of home and office equipment (e.g.
air conditioning).
Very important are also cultural factors, e.g.: consciousness of the importance
of hygiene and food storage, consciousness of health prophylactic, consciousness
of the importance of clean environment, culture of spending leisure time and
holidays.
For the functioning of HCS proper legislation is of great importance.
Short-term adaptation procedures
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- to equip hospitals, outpatient surgeries and other HCS objects in air
conditioning and refrigerating units,
- to prepare medical staff for urgent weather related accidents including heat
and cold stress,
- to store sufficient amount of seasonal supply materials,
- adequate protection of work places exposed to climate factors (including
heat waves) to minimize their negative effects.
The long-term, permanent actions
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watch warning system informing society and health care authorities of extreme
weather events which can cause accidents or health problems;,
periodical courses improving skills of medical personnel for diagnosis and
treatment of HRD,
implementation of educational programs dealing with complex influences of
climate and environmental pollutions on human health,
modernization of laboratories of early diagnosis of cardiovascular disorders,
improvement of infrastructure in hospitals, outpatients surgeries, health resorts
and other objects of health care system,
improvement of air quality (developing mechanisms reducing emission of
pollutants) because of observed great negative synergy of heat stress and air
pollution,
interactive system for monitoring and registration of climate related diseases,
including HRD,
founds for scientific research in epidemiology, toxicology and climate
physiology leading to better knowledge of HRD mechanisms,
informational system in health prophylactic, including periodical health
examination, promotion of healthy nutrition and life style, pre-medical aid and
appropriate reactions for extreme weather events.
Thank you for your attention
[email protected]