Transcript Features Added Specifically for EMF 21

MERGE – Presentation to
EMF 21
Alan S. Manne, Stanford University
Richard G. Richels, EPRI
Stanford University
December 2003
Features of MERGE
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Intertemporal computable general equilibrium model
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Tradeables: oil, gas, carbon emission rights
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Website: www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE
Perfect foresight
9 regions
Time periods: decades from 2000 through 2150
Bottom-up model of energy supplies; top-down model of electric
and nonelectric energy demands
Technical progress: both learn-by-doing and exogenous
Three greenhouse gases: co2, ch4 and n2o
Tradeoffs between gases based on “efficiency” prices rather than
gwp
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Features Added Specifically for EMF 21
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Second basket of gases: short- and long-lived f-gases (slf, llf)
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Marginal abatement cost curves of four non-co2 gases from EPA
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Reported the five long-term scenarios requested by EMF; mostly
global rather than regional results
Baseline emissions of four non-co2 gases from EPA through 2020
Extrapolated emissions growth: linear at rates projected between
2000 and 2020
Extrapolated technical progress
Carbon sinks – afforestation - cumulative quantities as well as
annual growth and decline limits
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Marginal Costs of Abatement – Technical Progress
Multipliers for all Gases but CO2
250
$/tce
2010
2050
2100
200
150
100
50
0
0%
20%
40%
60%
Percent abated
80%
100%
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World Carbon Sinks: Cumulative Difference
@ $100/ton
90
billion tons
80
70
60
LBL
50
RFF
40
MERGE
30
RIVM
20
10
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
RR1202CG.5
Regional Population Projections
12
billions
10
row
mopec
india
china
eefsu
canz
japan
weur
usa
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
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Per Capita GDP
120
$ thousands
100
usa
weur
80
japan
canz
60
eefsu
china
india
40
mopec
row
20
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
RR1202CG.7
GDP Projections
400
$ trillions
350
300
row
mopec
250
india
china
200
eefsu
canz
japan
150
weur
usa
100
50
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
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Carbon Emissions – Reference Case
30
billion tons
25
row
mopec
20
india
china
eefsu
15
canz
japan
10
w eur
usa
5
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
RR1202CG.9
Global Radiative Forcing Percentages
2000-2100 - reference case
slf llf
2% ~0%
n2o
15%
ch4
8%
co2
75%
RR1202CG.10
Control Cases
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In reference case, temperature increases by 3.2 degrees C
between 2000 and 2100.
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Alternatively, limit the radiative forcing increase to 4.5 watts/square
meter. Between 2000 and 2100, this leads to a temperature
increase of about 2.5 degrees C.
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Limit temperature increase to 0.2 degrees C per decade from 2020
onward. This leads to an extremely high value for carbon emission
rights during the early decades.
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Compare two abatement cases: energy-related CO2 only vs. all
greenhouse gases plus afforestation.
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Temperature Increase from 2000
3.5
degrees C
3
reference case
2.5
4.5 w/sq m - carbon only
4.5 w/sq m - multigas
2
0.2 degrees C per decade
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
RR1202CG.12
Present value of control costs
0.2 degrees C per decade - carbon only
0.2 degrees C per decade - multigas
4.5 w/sq m - carbon only
4.5 w/sq m - multigas
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
$ trillions discounted from 2000 to 2100
35
40
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Efficiency price of carbon - 4.5 watts / square meter
500
$ per ton of carbon
400
300
carbon only
200
100
multigas
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
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Efficiency price of carbon – 0.2 degrees C per decade
1600
$ per ton of carbon
1400
carbon only
1200
1000
800
multigas
600
400
200
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
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Ratio of Efficiency Prices to GWP’s
( 4.5 watts/square meter – multigas )
1.6
1.4
n20
1.2
1
llf
0.8
0.6
ch4
0.4
0.2
slf
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
RR1202CG.16