Transcript INCCA: Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment

INCCA: Indian Network for
Climate Change Assessment
A Climate Change Initiative
Subodh Sharma, Adviser
Ministry of Environment & Forests
Context
Climate Change
• Impact of human activities on climate systems is
unequivocal.
• Observed changes in climate over the Indian region:
 An increase of 0.4oC in the last 100 years
 Substantial changes in precipitation on a spatial scale
 An increase in intensity of heavy precipitation events
 Rise in sea level along the Indian coast @ 1.06-1.25
mm/year over last 40 years
• Climate projections indicate Rise in temperature by 2-4oC by 2050s
 Decrease in number of rainy days
 Increase in intensity of rain fall
 Adverse impacts on key economic sectors and
vulnerabilities of climate sensitive regions
Relevance
India’s socio-economic setting
• Over 50% of population (> 500 million) without access to electricity.
• Over 75% of household energy consumption is for the basic human
need of cooking. Over 70% households use traditional biomass for
cooking
• 34.7% and 79.9% population below income level of $1 and $2 a
day respectively
• Illiteracy, Gender Inequality/Disempowerment, High Infant Mortality
Rate and Maternal Mortality Rate, Poor Health & Housing result in
India’s low Human Development Index (HDI)
• India needs inclusive GDP growth of 8%+ over the next 25 years to
lift the bottom 40% of her citizens to an acceptable level of
economic & social well being.
The Concerns
Climate Change Impacts our activities in various
Economic sectors
And ultimately
 Sustainable development
 Food security
 Energy Security
 Economic growth and development
Climate Change in
the Indian Context
Climate Change Projections
Seasonal Temperature projections
Spatial patterns of projected
seasonal surface air temperature
change (°C) by HadRM2 for 2050s
relative to 1990s, under transient
increase of greenhouse gas
concentrations. (SRES IS92a)
Seasonal Precipitation projections
Spatial patterns of projected seasonal
precipitation change (mm) by HadRM2 for
2050s relative to 1990s, under transient
increase of greenhouse gas concentrations
(SRES Is92a)
Projected Climate Change over India
•
•
Increase in rainfall by 15-40% by the end
of the 21st century with high regional
variability
increase in mean annual temperature by
3°C to 6°C by the end of 21st century.
The warming is projected to be more
pronounced over land areas, with the
maximum increase over northern India.
The warming is also relatively greater
in winter and post-monsoon seasons.
Salient Findings
Climate Change Parameters Trends for
2030s in A1B
Features
Himalayan
region
Western
Ghats
Coastal
Region
Temperature
Precipitation
Extreme Temperature
Extreme
Precipitation
Intensity
No. of Rainy days
Key
increase
Slight
increase
No change
decrease
No particular trend
NorthEastern
Region
Salient Findings
Trends in Impacts for 2030s in A1B
Features
Himalayan
region
Western
Ghats
Coastal
region
Agricultural productivity
Water resources
Net Primary Productivity
Transmission windows for
Malaria
Key
increase
Slight
increase
No change
decrease
No particular trend
NorthEastern
region
Impact Assessments
Agriculture
4.5t/ha
(Control)
Water
Coastal zones
4.5/ha
(Climate
Change)
2.5t/ha
(Control)
2.5/ha
(Climate
Change)
Malaria
Acute physical water
scarce conditions
Constant water
scarcities and
shortage
Seasonal / regular
stressed conditions
Rare water
shortages
Forests
Dry savannah
Xeric Shrub land
Xeric woodland
T W Open for months
4-6
Tropical Seasonal Forest
Boreal Evergreen
7-9
CA
RN
IC
OB
AR
10-12
N.A
Tundra
Projected Impact on River Runoff for
the Period 2040-60
Acute physical water
scarce conditions
Constant water
scarcities and
shortage
Seasonal / regular
water stressed
conditions
Rare water shortages
Impacts on Forest Biomes
Forest biomes in India
seem to be highly
vulnerable to the
projected change
Majority of the
vegetation is likely to
be less optimally
adapted to its existing
location
Dry savannah
Biodiversity is also
Xeric woodland
likely to be adversely
Tropical Seasonal Forest
impacted
Boreal Evergreen
Xeric Shrub land
Tundra
Impacts of Climate Change on Health- Malaria
Increase in temperature is projected to
enhance the occurrence and spread of
Malaria
Malaria is likely to occur at elevations
higher than 1800m
Current Endemic regions of malaria
More states may offer climate
opportunities for malaria vector breeding
throughout the year.
Transmission windows may increase by
3-5 months in northern states and may
reduce by 2-3 months in the southern
states.
Regions likely to be affected by
malaria in 2050s
Impact of increasing temperature on future
wheat production
6
Potential yield
Grain yield, t/ha
5
Current yield
4
3
2
1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
Increase in temperature, C
Any decrease in irrigation in Indo Gangatic Plains (IGP) would further reduce yields
Vulnerable areas along Indian Coastline
A long term average rising trend
of 1 mm/year in sea level
observed
Sea level changes are also due
to –
•Tectonic movement
•Prevalent hydrography
•Physiography.
A one-meter sea level rise is
projected to displace
approximately 7.1 million people
in India and about 5764 km2 of
land area will be lost along with
4200 km of roads
Emerging science questions
• What is the current climate trend across the key regions
in the country and how is it likely to behave in the in
short, medium and long term future?
• What are the implications of the projected changes of
climate on ecosystems specific to these regions?
• What are implications of changes in ecosystems on
human societies including its health and migration of
population in these regions?
• What are the adaptation needs and associated costs?
• What are the trends of agents of change?
• How can we use the evolving knowledge to manage
risks and opportunities related to climate variability and
change?
Objectives
• Objective 1: Observe and understand the short- and
long-term changes in climate over India
• Objective 2: Understand the impacts of changes in
climate on key sectors of economy and at regional
scales
• Objective 3: Develop comprehensive climate change
assessment and adaptation frameworks
• Objective 4: To analyse the trends of greenhouse gas,
other trace gas and pollutants emitted from various
sectors
• Objective 5: To build capacity for undertaking research
to understand the changes in climate and related
environment and develop strategies to combat the
change
Indian Network for Climate Change
Assessment (INCCA) :
Institutional Mechanism
•
To build on existing network of Institutions (e.g. NATCOM)
that comprise of Research institutions, Universities,
Technical institutions, NGOs, private sector wide
•
Propose to involve Indian Expertise abroad
•
Create/Associate New Agencies and/or Devise
Operational Arrangements
•
Participating Institutions shall serve as the KNOWLEDGE
INSTITUTIONS
Developing
scenarios
INCAA
Programmes
Climate
Change
Fellowships
Black Carbon
Ecosystem Monitoring
Centre for Advanced Studies
Impact
Assessments
Integrated V&A
Assessments
INCCA
Greenhouse
Gas Inventory
Programme
Programme
Components
of INCAA
Climate change
Developing
scenarios
Socio-economic
Water
Impact
Assessments
Agriculture
Natural ecosystem
Integrated V&A
Assessments
Health
INCAA
Water-Agri-food security-livelihood
Black Carbon
Greenhouse
Gas Inventory
Programme
Sources
Water-Gender-Poverty
Monitoring &
Modeling
Water-health-livelihhood
Impacts
Ecosystem-Livelihoods
Centre for Advanced Studies
Forest-livelihoods
Sea level rise- extreme event-livelihoods
Climate change & Biodiversity
Ecosystem Monitoring
Deliverables
INCAA will provide:
• Annual Level Assessments at various levels
• An Integrated Assessment of Science and
Impacts of climate change in India across
sectors
• Archive and publish model products, scenarios,
visualization products, assessments tools and
approaches of assessments
The INCCA Assessments
CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA:
A 4X4 ASSESSMENT
A SECTORAL AND REGIONAL
ANALYSIS FOR 2030S
INCCA Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment
India: Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007
INCCA: Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment
November 2010
Ministry of Environment & Forests
Government of India
Released in Novemeber,2010
Ministry of Environment and Forests
Government of India
May 2010
Released in May, 2010
Available at www.moef.nic.in
INCAA & Network for preparation of
GHG inventories 2007
Key Results
•
The total net Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from India in 2007 were 1727.71
million tons of CO2 equivalent (eq) of which
- CO2 emissions were 1221.76 million tons;
- CH4 emissions were 20.56 million tons; and
- N2O emissions were 0.57 million tons
•
GHG emissions from Energy, Industry, Agriculture, and Waste sectors constituted
58%, 22%, 17% and 3% of the net CO2 eq emissions respectively.
•
Energy sector emitted 1100.06 million tons of CO2 eq, of which 719.31 million tons
of CO2 eq were emitted from electricity generation and 142.04 million tons of CO2
eq from the transport sector.
•
Industry sector emitted 412.55 million tons of CO2 eq. LULUCF sector was a net
sink. It sequestered 177.03 million tons of CO2.
•
India’s per capita CO2 eq emissions including LULUCF were 1.5 tons/capita in
2007.
The 4x4 Assessment
• Focus on 4 climate sensitive regions in India
Himalayan Region
North Eastern Region
Western Ghats
Coastal region
• Assess what would be the likely impacts in 2030s on
Agriculture
Ecosystems and biodiversity
Water resources and
Human health affected by climate variability
• 2030s, appropriate for A1B scenario for adaptation.
Irrigated rice
Emerging results
- Agriculture
• There is a general decrease
in productivity of crops
however cash crops like
coconut may increase.
• Some species of marine
fisheries are likely to have
higher catch compared to
others as their area of
spawning shifts to higher
latitudes
• The livestock productivity
is likely to be affected
adversely with increase in
extreme temperatures
Rainfed rice
Projected changes - Water
Water yield –
Himalayan region: is likely
to increase
North Eastern region:
Reduction
Western ghats: Variable
water yield changes
projected across the
region
Coastal region: A general
reduction in water yield
Natural Ecosystems and Biodiversity
Forests: Changes in vegetation
type and decrease in Net
Primary productivity is projected
Projected changes in Forest vegetation
Grass land: Enhanced CO2
levels are projected to favor C3
plants over C4 grasses, but the
projected increase in
temperature would favour C4
plants
Coral reefs: Increase in
temperature will lead to
bleaching of corals
Mangroves: Sea-level rise
leading to increase the salinity
may favour mangrove plants
that tolerate higher salinity
Key: 1: Tropical evergreen forest/woodland, 2: Tropical
deciduous forest/woodland, 3: Temperate evergreen
broadleaf forest/woodland, 4: Temperate evergreen
conifer forest/woodland, 5: Temperate deciduous
forest/woodland, 6: Boreal evergreen forest/woodland, 7:
Boreal deciduous forest/woodland, 8: Mixed
forest/woodland, 9: Savanna, 10: Grassland/steppe, 11:
Dense shrubland, 12: Open shrubland, 13: Tundra, 14:
Desert, 15: Polar desert/rock/ice
Projected Changes in Human
Health
Baseline and A1B Scenario Projected Map of Open Months for Malaria Transmission
(Based on T. & RH.)
•
•
•
•
Likely increase in
morbidity due to rise
in extreme
temperatures
Likely increase in
morbidity and
mortality due to
increase in water
borne diseases
(enhanced flooding
and SLR)
Reduced crop yields
may raise
malnutrition cases
(climate)
Increase in incidence
of malaria due to
opening up of
transmission
windows at higher
altitudes (climate)
1970s
2030s
Transmission windows of Malaria
Approaches to address Climate Change
Geographic
Strategies
Hierarchy
Local
National
Regional/ Global
Capacity Building
Monitoring, observation
Awareness/assessment
at state/ district/
community levels
Scientific assessment,
measurement, models, national
research agenda
Participation in global/
regional modeling and
assessments
Knowledge/
Information
Locale specific
databases, scenarios
and assessment, local
monitoring networks
Research networks, National
databases (e.g. NATCOM),
scientific and policy models,
national scenarios, technology
inventory
Interface with IPCC
assessments, interfacing
with regional/global
databases, scenarios and
assessments, technology
inventory database
Institutions/ Partnerships
Community initiatives,
Early warning networks
Stakeholders networks, public/
private programs
FCCC processes, transboundary impacts
assessment
Policy/ Instruments
Local specific
adaptation plans,
community based
adaptation programs
Science-policy linkage, economic
instruments (e.g. insurance, R&D
funds), integration with national
development/ planning process
Adaptation funds, transboundary regulations
Technology
Locale specific
technology adaptation
Targeted R&D, Technology
transfer protocols,
demonstration/ pilot projects
Scientific exchange,
technology transfer
Relevance and Opportunities for
Geospatial Technologies
Forestry
Mapping
Environmental
Management
Aerial Photography
Remote Sensing
Climate Change
Surveying
In a number of
Application
Segments in
the area of
Integrated
Coastal Zone
Management
Disaster
Management
GHG
Monitoring
Data Analysis and
Integration
Earth Observation
System
Enhanced Relevance in light of the recent Cancun Agreements and Reporting
requirements of the Parties
Thank You!
Institutional
Arrangement- Inventory
INCCA - Green House Gas Inventory
INCCA MoEF
Estimation Green House Gas Emissions
LULUCF
Agriculture
Industrial
Processes &
Product Use
NBSSLUP
FSI
IARI
CMA
UAS-B
ISRO
NDRI
CII
IFGTB
IIRS
IGFRI
CGCRI
AFRI
NRSC
IVRI
ILZDA
ARCBR
ICFRE
HFRI
Waste
Energy
NPL
CIMFR
CEA
TERI
JU
CRRI
IIP
PCRA
ARAI
AMA
SIAM
NATRIP
CSFE
ISCA
CRRI
CMA
TFRI
FRCEH
FAI
CFRHRD
RRI
EIAI
CPCB
NSWAI
EPTRI
NIUA
IWST
NEERI
Institutional Arrangement – V&A