Transcript Walker_OSU_Water_Seminar_W_17_v2

Climate Negotiations, Paris,
and Beyond: Where’s Water?
Gregg B. Walker, Ph.D.
Member, Faculties of Communication, Environmental
Sciences, Forest Ecosystems & Society, Public Policy,
and Water Resource Management Programs
Oregon State University, USA
[email protected]
GEOG 507 – Geography Seminar
Oregon State University -- 23 January
2017
The Preview
• Background - The MBB
Project (research access)
• A brief history of the
climate change
negotiations
• Water and the Paris
Agreement
• A visit to Bangladesh
As Co-director of the MBB Climate
Change Project…
• I advocate for “conflict
resolution capacity
building” and treaty
language that features
peaceful means for
resolving conflicts…
• I participate in the UNFCCC
process as an “in-situ”
researcher…
• I observe negotiations and
talk with parties…
• I study the negotiation
“discourse(s)”
http://climatechangetv.rtcc.org/cop18-co-chairs-could-helpaid-lca-track-of-climate-talks/
And…
• I chair the Climate Change
Negotiations Working Group of the
International Environmental
Communication Association (IECA)
• I am a member of the Steering
Committee of RINGO – the
Research and Independent Nongovernment organization
constituency, one of nine Civil
Society Organization (CSO)
constituencies (others are ENGO,
BINGO, YOUNGO…)
Negotiating Climate Change – Key Events
 1979-The first World Climate
Conference (WCC) takes place
(sponsored by WMO and UNEP)
 1988 — The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) is set up –
established by the United Nations.
 1990 -First assessment report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (and 4 more since)…
– reflected the views of 400 scientists
– primary message: global warming
was happening and something had to
be done about it.
5
Negotiating Climate Change – Key Events
 1992- At the Earth Summit in Brazil (Rio), the UNFCCC
is opened for signature along with its sister Rio
Conventions, UNCBD and UNCCD. Negotiation of the
Convention was fast— especially one on such a vastly
complex issue.
 1995 — The first Conference of the Parties (COP 1)
takes place in Berlin. Countries realized that emission
reductions provisions in the Convention were
inadequate. They launched negotiations to
strengthen the global response to climate change.
 1997-Kyoto Protocol is adopted in December at COP3
6
Negotiating Climate Change – Key Events
• 2001-Release of IPCC’s Third Assessment Report,
Adoption of Marrakesh Accords (adaptation added)
• 2007 — IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report released,
AWG KP and AWG-LCA
• 2009 — Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 in
Copenhagen
• 2010 — Cancun Agreements drafted and largely
accepted by the COP
• 2011 — The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
drafted and accepted by the COP
• 2012 – Doha Work Programme on Article 6
• 2013 - Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and
Damage
• 2014 – Lima Call for Climate Action
• 2015 – the Paris Agreement
7
The UNFCCC
Article 2- The ultimate objective of the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
is “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system. Such a level should be achieved
within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems
to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that
food production is not threatened and to enable
economic development to proceed in a sustainable
manner”.
8
The Kyoto Protocol (1997 and 2005)
• Adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 but Entered into
force on 16 February 2005, due to a complex ratification process.
• The Kyoto Protocol (KP) “operationalizes” the Convention. It
commits industrialized countries to stabilize greenhouse gas
emissions based on the principles of the Convention. The
Convention itself only encourages countries to do so.
• KP, sets binding emission reduction targets for 37 industrialized
countries and the European community in its first commitment
period.
• KP was structured on the principles of the Convention. It only
binds developed countries because it recognizes that they are
largely responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions.
• KP places a heavier burden on developed nations under its
central principle: that of “common but differentiated
responsibility” (CBDR).
9
The Bali Road Map (Action Plan)
• The Bali Action Plan is divided into 5 main
categories:
1. Shared vision (a long-term vision for action on
climate change, including a long-term goal for
emission reductions)
2. Mitigation
3. Adaptation
4. Technology
5. Financing
• The Bali Action Plan was highly ambitious- time
lines it spelled out overly optimistic, and
underestimation of the complexity both of climate
change as a problem and of crafting a global
response to it.
10
Bali Road Map
Building Blocks
Global Action
Sustainable Development Objectives
Finance
Mitigation
Mitigation
Adaptation
Adaptation
Technology
Durban Outcomes (2011)
 COP 17-With Cancun Agreements and Bali Road Map as their
foundations, the Parties reached agreement on a second
commitment period on the Kyoto Protocol and on a pathway
and deadlines to drawing up and committing to a new, post2020 mitigation framework under the Convention.
 Parties established the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action
which spelled out a path to negotiate a new legal and
universal emission reduction agreement by 2015, to be
adopted by 2020 (a Paris agreement).
 This accounts for the mitigation efforts of all countries under
one agreement, a seminal turning point .
 A work programme on raising collective mitigation ambition
was launched.
 The Kyoto Protocol would move into a second commitment
period in 2013, in a seamless transition from the end of the
second commitment period in 2012.
12
Adaptation versus Mitigation
• Adaptation
Adjustment in natural or human
systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their
effects, which moderates harm or
exploits beneficial opportunities
• Mitigation
In the context of climate change, a
human intervention to reduce the
sources or enhance the sinks of
greenhouse gases
13
The 2015 Road to Paris – The ADP text
90 page document – areas
A. Preamble
B. Definitions
C. General/Objective
D. Mitigation
E. Adaptation and Loss and Damage
F. Finance
G. Technology Development and Transfer
H. Capacity Building
I. Transparency of Action and Support
J. Time frames and process related to
commitments/contributions
and other matters related to implementation and ambition
K. Facilitating Implementation and Compliance
L. Procedural and Institutional Provisions
An Agreement in Paris? Challenges
that had to be Overcome
• Decisions by consensus (all parties
must agree)
• 196 nations/parties
• Many negotiation coalitions;
countries as members of multiple
coalitions
• Different views of CBDR (common
but differentiated responsibility)
• Difficult substantive issues. E.g.,
finance
• Difficult symbolic issues, e.g.,
human rights
The Paris Agreement
• 23 years in the making
• Provides a foundation for
climate action on multiple
scales
• Issues need to be addressed,
refined, improved – details to
be worked out
• Recognizes a 1.5o C. increase
goal (important symbolically)
• Voluntary commitments not
enough – only achieve 2.7o
increase
But Where is Water?
Consider these statements:
• “In many areas, climate change is likely to increase
water demand while shrinking water supplies.” (US
Environmental Protection Agency)
• “Water is the primary medium through which climate
change influences Earth’s ecosystem and thus the
livelihood and well-being of societies.” (UN Water)
• “The vital importance of water and water-related tradeoffs with climate policy has largely been ignored to
date.” (German Development Institute)
• Note: IPCC Assessment Reports (e.g., 4th and 5th)
recognize water – chapters on “hydrology and water
resources” and “coastal zones and marine ecosystems.”
The Paris Agreement
• Where is water mentioned? Nowhere
• What about oceans? In the preamble
“noting the importance of ensuring the
integrity of all ecosystems, including
oceans…” – nowhere else
• What about sea level rise? Sea level?
Hydro? Rivers? Blue carbon? None of
these are mentioned – anywhere
• “At first glance, water plays no role
in the Paris agreement. Upon closer
examination, however, we see that
climate policy will have far-reaching
implications for the availability of
water and vice versa.” (German
Development Institute)
Water Issues and Implementation
From the German Development Institute Report: What
does the Paris climate agreement mean for water
policy?
• Climate-related increases in droughts and flooding
• Seasonal changes in rainfall
• The growing scarcity of local water resources (e.g. as
a result of glacial melt)
• Deterioration in water quality (e.g. the salinization of
freshwater as a consequence of rising sea levels)
• Increased migration (“climate refugees”) due to
extreme climate and weather events
Water and Mitigation
• GHG reduction technologies rely to water – e.g.,
bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
• BECCS involves first growing biomass, including wood
or crops such as maize and then combusting it to
generate energy. These two steps together are
essentially emission neutral.
• But…Bioenergy production especially, but also CCS
technology, uses considerable quantities of water,
which can exacerbate existing regional water
shortages in particular.
• And blue carbon – “blue carbon is the carbon stored
and sequestered in coastal ecosystems such as
mangrove forests, seagrass meadows or intertidal
saltmarshes.” (Blue Carbon Portal)
Water and Adaptation
From the GDI Report: Adaptation
measures in the water sector include
• The retention of water by forests,
wetland and artificial storage
facilities
• Improved soil and water
management in rain-fed agriculture
• Flood protection
• Expansion of irrigation farming
(which may reduce the availability
and quality of water resources)
Let’s visit Bangladesh and its INDC
Where is water?
• Commercial buildings: harvesting
rainwater
• Part of its National Adaptation Plan
(NAP)
• Water security
• River management (e.g., dredging,
canals)
• Construction of water control
infrastructures
• Involvement of government offices:
Water Development Board, Inland
Water Transport Authority
• Improved irrigation and water
management
Conclusion
• Throughout the climate negotiations, water
issues have not been prominent
• Water issues and ecosystems -- both freshwater
and ocean and coastal – are cross-cutting,
related to mitigation, technology…and
particularly adaptation
• Water issues provide a link between climate
change and sustainable development goals
(SDGs)
• Water issues are critical to implementing sound
climate policies
Acknowledgements
(the sources for some slides)
• Dr. Alina Averchenkova, International
Consultant
• Judith Ephraim, Ministry of Sustainable
Development , Energy, Science and
Technology, Saint Lucia
Thank you for interest!
I welcome your comments, questions,
concerns…
-- Gregg