Transcript see his presentation here

The Need for a World War II Type
“All Hands on Deck”
Mobilization on Climate Change and
Higher Education’s Role in This Effort
Donald A. Brown
Scholar In Residence and Professor
Widener University School Of Law
Major Positive
Developments in Paris
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Nations agreed to limit the increase in global
average temperatures to “well below 20C” and to
“pursue efforts” to limit temperature increase to
1.5 oC.
Climate System Has Both Dials and Switches
What is at Stake Between 2.0 and
1.5 degrees C
• 2.0 Degrees C was originally viewed to be a
reasonable warming limit both because it was
believed it would avoid the harshest warming
impacts and triggering abrupt climate change that
would be caused by exceeding thresholds in the
climate system
• Leading up to Paris there was growing scientific
evidence that a 2.0 warming limit will not prevent
dangerous warming, many of the models predicting
impacts and on which targets were based did not
include the effect of some positive feedbacks
Signs of more rapid climate
change warming
Arctic Sea Ice Rapidly Melting
Warning Signs of Triggering Rapid Warming
Signs of "positive climate feedbacks"—are appearing, in particular,
those associated with greenhouse gas releases from soils, tundra, or
ocean sediments; sea-ice and ice sheet disintegration; and vegetation
migration--could make the climate system warm twice as much over
the long term than previously calculated by climate models.
Melting Permafrost Releasing Methane
Warning signs of more rapid
climate change
Sea-level Rise Rates Larger Than Previously Projected
The 2007 IPCC report projected global average sea-level
rise of 7 to 23 inches by the 2090s. This calculation did
not take into account compelling new evidence of
recent rapid melting in Greenland and Antarctica, that
if continued could lead to sea-level rise of 5 or 6 feet
this century Jim Hansen claimed that 12 to 15 feet of
sea level rise now possible.
Widespread Forest Mortality
Signs of more rapid climate change
warming
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Release of Methane in Deep Ocean Ice
The Loss of Ice Reflectance
Methane from tundra
The Declining Ability of the Ocean and
Terrestrial Biosphere to Store Carbon
Global carbon budget
The carbon sources from fossil fuels, industry, and land use change emissions are balanced by the atmosphere and carbon
sinks on land and in the ocean
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Joos et al 2013; Khatiwala et al 2013;
Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
Ocean carbon feed backs.
• Increased water temperature dissolves less
CO2
• Increased ocean acidification dissolves less
CO2.
• Reduced phytoplankton growth reduces ocean
photosynthesis.
• Impaired capacity of shell bearing organization
to make calcium carbonate. ​
Carbon
Budget
23 Researchers in 23 countries concluded
nations were basing their national GHG
reduction commitments on economic self
interest.
What amount of GHG Emissions
Reductions are needed?
• UNEP Emissions Gap 2015, To stay within 1.5
degree C warming limit with > 50% probability
total CO2 including LULUCF must be zero by
2045-2050
• All of these reductions are for entire world
without an equity step.
How GHG targets were set for the
last four decades
For most of this time;
• Do a GHG emissions inventory
• Figure out what policies could be adopted to to
reduce GHG emissions from sources identified in the
inventory
• Deduce a target from the reductions
• No attempt to align a target with a warming limit
Recently, some nations have looked to IPCC for
guidance
IPCC Table 3.7 4th Assessment
2007
-25 to -40% by 2020
-80 % to -95% by 2050
US : 26 to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025
(which was only 15% below 1990), 80%
by 2050.
Five steps for setting a national or local
government GHG emissions reduction target
1. Determine a warming limit
2. Identify a global carbon budget which will
achieve the global warming limit with an
acceptable level of probability
3. Calculate reduction rates by which global GHG
emissions must be zero
4. Apply an equity step to adjust the global rates to
to determine an acceptable national carbon
budget.
5. Calculate reduction rates by which national or
regional global GHG emissions must be zero
Step 2. Selecting A Carbon Budget
Selecting a Carbon Budget requires taking
positions on 2 substeps that raise ethical
questions:
• With what probability will the warming limit
be achieved.
• The posted carbon budgets must be
constantly adjusted to deal with emissions
emitted after the budget was calculated.
0 GtC left to limit warming to 1.5C with a 66 % probability
in 5.2 years
0 GtC left to limit warming to 2C with a 66% probability in
20.3 years
Carbon Brief
Remaining Carbon
Budget : Global CO2
Emissions, 40GtC in
2011, which left 400
GtC for 66% chance
of limit 1.5C, by
2015, 205 GtC or 5
years left
Step 3
• Identify an GHG emissions reduction pathway
50 GtC
Remaining Carbon
Budget
0 GtC
2016
Shape of emissions reduction
pathway has great significance for
how much of remaining carbon
budget is left and degree of
difficulty in getting to zero
50 GtC
O GtC
2050
Remaining Carbon
Budget
Equity Is A Contested Term but that does not mean it
can mean anything
IPCC recently said in AR5
– Economic reasoning alone does not deal with
either distributive or compensatory justice
– Reasonable interpretations of “equity” are
limited to only a few plausible kinds of
considerations namely
• Responsibility
• Equality
• Capacity
• Rights of Developing Countries to Develop
The emission pledges (INDCs) of the top-4 emitters
The emission pledges from the US, EU, China, and India leave little room for other countries to emit in a 2°C emission budget
(66% chance)
Source: Peters et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
What has the US done?
• Obama committed to in the Paris Agreement to 26 to
28% below 2005 levels by 2025 (which was only 15%
below 1990) which the White House said it could do
under existing law
• US will likely only reduce emissions by 7% to 21%
below 2005 if it continues with proposed regulations
including the Clean Power Plan which but could if it
adopted policies discussed reduce US emissions by 16%
to 32%
• Clean Power Plan seeks to reduce GHG from electricity
sector by 32% by 2030
Pennsylvania
• No GHG target for state
• Very weak RPS standard
• Legislature blocking Clean Power Plan and trying to
block methane leakage rules for natural gas
production
• State has never implemented recommendations of
Climate Change stakeholder group created by 2008
statute
• According to a state legislator very few are lobbying
the state to set a GHG target while natural gas
industry is intensely lobbying the state on many
issues
Pennsylvania
• Natural gas industry spent $8 million in
lobbying $733,635 on campaign contributions,
$55 million on lobbying since 2007 according
to Common Cause.
• Civil society is very engaged on fracking issues
including methane leakage but failing to
translate this into concern about climate
change.
We need to organize a Pennsylvania getting to
zero campaign
• Pennsylvania should set a target of zero GHG emissions for a
date no later than 2040.
• The campaign should:
– Call for DEP to set a zero target for GHG emissions no later
than 2040
– Condemn those industries, politicians, and organizations
that oppose a zero target particularly if they make
arguments developed by the climate denier
countermovement
– Educate Pa citizens that natural gas is not a bridge fuel.
The ENORMOUS DAMAGE to the
WORLD of the Fossil Fuel Financed
Disinformation Campaign in the
United States
Chapter 10, The Denial
“Countermovent
Because of a 40 year delay
CO2 has been allowed to rise
from 320 ppm to 403
ppm
Tactics
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Reckless Disregard For The Truth
Focusing on Unknowns While Ignoring Knowns.
Specious Claims Of "Bad" Science
Creation of "Front Groups"
Manufacturing Bogus Science
Think Tank Campaigns
Misleading PR Campaigns
Creation of Astroturf Groups
Bogus Economic Arguments
Cyber-bullying Of Scientists and Journalists
Higher Education’s Role in “All
Hands on Deck” Mobilization
• Issue a Press Release about the PERC program on
civil society mobilization on climate change which
will partner with DEP and DCNR.
• Educate civil society including the media on the need
for all sectors of society to reduce carbon to net zero
emissions in the next 4 decades or sooner.
• Support the development of climate strategies and
targets by all levels of government and civil society
including local and county governments, businesses,
and organizations.
Higher Education Contributions to
“All Hands on Deck” Mobilization
• Develop a program to rapidly expand renewable
energy in Pennsylvania.
• Help civil society understand the blocking role
that the fossil fuel industry is playing in
Pennsylvania.
• Working with DCNR support an expanded
biological carbon sequestration program in
Pennsylvania
• Educate civil society about the disinformation
campaign