Transcript Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report

Food and agriculture perspectives to
2030-2050: challenges ahead.
Simposio “Acqua, risorsa globale”
Politecnico di Torino, 5 May 2016
Lorenzo Giovanni Bellù
Senior Economist , Global Perspectives Studies team
Food and Agriculture organization of the United
Nations - Rome
Topics
1. The story of our future
2. Challenges
3.Messages
2
1.The story
3
Population growth
Population may grow from 2010 to 2050 up to 2.5 billions (+38%), displaying
larger growth rates in less industrialized regions.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013).
World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, DVD Edition. Medium Fertility Scenario
Per Capita Gross Domestic Product to 2050 (and 2080)
The per capita GDP may keep growing, more doubling by 2050 in
industrialized countries or tripling, specifically in Asia and Africa
Source: FAO World Agriculture Towards 2030-2050
Agricultural production requireemnts
Based on previous income and population assumptions, to satisfy
increasding demand (including bio-fuels) the agricultural production
should increase by 60% to 2050. This expansion is not as strong as the one
observed in the last fifty years but is still quite significant.
Land use: retrospective analysis
Increasing use of agricultural soil has slowed down in the last ten years, as
well as the global deforestation rate. Multiple interpretations may be given,
including the fact that land use changes are increasingly difficult for
technical, economic, legal and/or institutional reasons.
Source: own calculations on FAOSTAT data
Where agricultural growth may come from by 2050
Given the relative scarcity of natural resources (land and water)
agricultural growth should essentially come from increased yields.
Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012). Agriculture towards 2050 FAO UN – Rome.
http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/ap106e/ap106e.pdf
Land equipped for irrigation: Retrospective analysis and projections
Although areas equipped for irrigation have expanded in the last
fifty years (1.2% yearly), further expansion looks more problematic
Sources: Years 1961-2013: FAOSTAT. Annual growth rate of projections 2014-2050 (0.1%) and max
potential to 2050: Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012). Agriculture towards 2050 FAO UN – Rome.
http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/ap106e/ap106e.pdf
Undernourishment: past, present and future to 2030 and 2050
It is possible that, thanks to income growth and food availability, undernourishment
shrink. However, the “Business as Usual” scenario re access to food to 2030 e 2050
would leave large segments of population undernourished.
Source: Years 1990-92 e 2014-16: State of Food Insecurity 2015. FAO UN –Rome,
http://www.fao.org/publications/sofi/2014/en/
Year 2030: Achieving Zero Hunger: FAO UN, IFAD, WFP –Rome http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4951e.pdf
Year 2050: Agriculture Towards 2050, FAO UN - Rome
2. Two challenges for achieving zero
hunger and sustainable agricultural
production.
Increasing food needs will have to be satisfied by
addressing two key challenges, that our
“development paradigm” will have to deal with:
a) Inequality
b) Climate change
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a. Increasing inequality? (1)
Our economic systems embed income concentration mechanisms. Income
concentration genrates wealth concentration that in turn further increases income
inequality. Per capita income increases does not assure increased income for all.
Fonte: http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/Piketty2013GraphiquesTableauxLiens.pdf
Increasing inequality? (2)
In so called “emerging countries”, the situation is not better.
b. Climate change
Earth atmosphere is increasingly CO2-rich , leading to progressive (and
unknown) climate changes:
Source: Earth System Research Laboratory, U.S. Department of Commerce and
National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
Who emits GHGs.
Source: IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working
Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva,
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf
CO2 map
Fonte: http://www.carbonmap.org/#
Different climate change scenarios under alternative RCPs
Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6: Very strong mitigation (40/70% emiss. al 2050); RCPa 8.5: Business as Usual.
Source IPCC, 2014
Climate change and agricultural yields
Aggregation of 1090 studies on yields under climate change
(mostly carried out on wheat, maize, rice e soybeans, under
different climate change scenarios)
Source: IPCC, 2014
3. Messages
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First message
1. Achieving Zero hunger by 2030 (SDG 2)
is possible, but requires improving
income distribution via social
protection and pro poor income
generating investment both in rural
and urban areas
Additional income requiremetns to achieve zero hunger by 2030
Around 145 billion US$ needed to get people out of extreme
poverty (defined at 1.25 US$ PPP + 40% buffer)
Source: Achieving Zero Hunger: FAO UN, IFAD, WFP –Rome http://www.fao.org/3/ai4951e.pdf
Investing to achieve zero hunger by 2030
Annual average investment: 265 billion US$, out of which 67 for social
protection and 198 for pro-poor productive activities.
Source: Achieving Zero Hunger: FAO UN, IFAD, WFP –Rome http://www.fao.org/3/ai4951e.pdf
Second message: Climate change mitigation
The need to increase the agricultural production can be addressed
by reducing food losses and waste, and consumer education.
However, constraints on natural resources require sustainably
maintaining current yields and expanding them to cope with
increasing demand, as long as this materializes.
Climate changes reduce yields in the long run, particularly in
regions where food is most in need.
Climate change mitigation is a long-run requirement that implies
immediate action: research, investment but, most of all, political
will. This is a condition to ensure sustainable universal and
permanent food and nutrition security.
Work in progress
World Food and Agriculture Towards 2050-80 (FAT 2080):
Challenges and global perspectives.
www.fao.org
http://www.fao.org/economic/esa/
esa-activities/perspectives/en/