Transcript Module 6_ Extreme weather

Module 6:
Extreme weather
Key messages in Module 6
• Climate change is leading to changes in the
frequency & intensity of many extreme
weather & climate events
• Asia & the Pacific are particularly vulnerable
to extreme events
• There are a wide range of health risks of
extreme events in the region
• Public health & disaster risk management
policies & measures can increase resilience to
current & future health risks
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Module 6 outline
Health risks
Worldwide
Extreme
Sources of
from extreme
trends in
weather in Asia
vulnerability
weather
hazards
Pacific
Public health
Disaster risk
risks
management
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Introduction:
Understanding the health
risks from extreme
weather & climate events
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A changing climate leads to changes in
extreme weather & climate events
Source: IPCC (2012)
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Impacts from weather & climate events
depend on:
Nature & severity of event
Vulnerability: the
predisposition of a person
or group to be adversely
affected
Exposure
Source: IPCC (2012) 6
Worldwide
trends in
hazards
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Loss events worldwide in 2013
Source: Munchener Ruckversicherungs-Gesellschaft (2014)
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Top 10 natural disasters by number of victims
Source: EM-DAT (2012)
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Percent share of reported victims by disaster
sub-group & continent in 2012
Source: EM-DAT (2012)
Meteorological = storm
Climatological = extreme temperature, drought, wildfire
Hydrological = flood
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Fatalities are higher in developing
countries
From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disasterrelated deaths occurred in developing countries
Source: IPCC (2012)
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Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2012
(No. of events)
Source: Munchener Ruckversicherungs-Gesellschaft (2014) 12
Loss events worldwide 2013 vs. 1980 - 2012
Source: Munchener Ruckversicherungs-Gesellschaft (2014) 13
Loss events worldwide 2013:
Overall & insured loss per continent
Source: Munchener Ruckversicherungs-Gesellschaft (2014)
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Increasing exposure of people & assets has
been the major cause of changes in disaster
losses
Pakistan floods, 2010
6 million left homeless
Source: IPCC (2012) 15
Flooding: China 2013
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Summary: Trends in hazards
• More hazardous weather and climate events
are occurring
• Low and middle income countries are
particularly vulnerable
• Asia is at risk
• Hazardous events are becoming more
expensive
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Extreme weather
& climate events
in Asia & the
Pacific
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All extreme weather events experienced
in countries of South East Asia &
Western Pacific could be affected by
climate change
This could alter the frequency & intensity of:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Typhoons
Floods
Precipitation extremes
Wildfires
Temperature extremes
Others (windstorms, blizzards, etc.)
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Deaths from extreme weather events in
Southeast Asia, 1970 - 2008
SEARO country
Drought
Bangladesh
18
Bhutan (no pre-1990 data)
India
320
Indonesia
1,329
Korea Dem P Rep
Korea Rep
Maldives
Myanmar
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Timor-Leste (no pre-1990 data)
Total
1,667
Extreme
temperature Flood
Storm
Wildfire Total
2,171
41,759
474,098
518,046
222
17
239
11,710
46,185
49,029
6
107,250
5,227
1,692
300
8,548
1,820
55
1,875
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2,274
2,186
2
4,502
364
138,864
8
139,236
108
5,481
97
88
5,774
941
754
1,695
2,648
927
3,575
1
1
14,029 106,922
667,719
404
790,741
Source: EM-DAT (2008)
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Death by cause among children in some
Asian countries
•
More than 175,000
children &
teenagers die
from drowning
each year
•
Children under the
age of 5 years are
most at risk
•
Most child
drowning events
happen in &
around the home
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Conclusions from the data:
• The region has high vulnerability to extreme
weather events
• Children are particularly vulnerable
• Mortality impacts are not evenly distributed
across the types of events or across countries
(even when differences in population size are
accounted for)
• Storms & floods account for the vast majority
of deaths from extreme weather events
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What is the experience in
your country with early
warning systems?
Are they proving effective in
preventing death?
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Case study:
Disasters &
hazard incidence
in Bangladesh
Source: Cash et al. (2013)
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Extreme
events in
Bangladesh’s
history
Learning & innovation in Bangladesh’s cyclone management
Source: Cash et al. (2013)
Cyclones & their impact on human
population by region, 1980 - 2009
Tropical cyclones &
their affects on
human populations
Source: Doocy et al. (2013)
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Cyclone Nargis hits Myanmar, 2008
New York Times (2008)
The Guardian (2008)
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Danger of glacial lake outburst flood in the
Himalayas
Excessive melt
water can lead
to Glacial Lake
Outburst Flood
(GLOF) or
‘mountain
tsunami’
In 2007, 200
glacial lakes in
the Himalayas
were at risk of
bursting.
Photo: Dig Tsho, Nepal (1985)
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Smoke from forest & agricultural fires in
2006
Fire from
smoke
resulted in
degraded air
quality in
Indonesia,
Malaysia &
Thailand
Photo: Mongabay.com (2006) 29
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Summary: Extreme weather in
Asia Pacific
Climate change could alter the frequency &
intensity of:
• Typhoons
• Floods
• Precipitation extremes
• Wildfires
• Temperature extremes
• Others (windstorms, blizzards, etc.)
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Sources of
vulnerability
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Factors increasing vulnerability to
extreme weather & climate events
• Age: older adults & younger children
• Presence of chronic medical conditions
• Low level of physical fitness or physical
mobility
• Physical or mental impairment
• Social isolation
• Poverty
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For exposed & vulnerable communities,
even non-extreme weather & climate events
can have extreme impacts
• Africa’s largest recorded
cholera outbreak
Case study: Zimbabwe
2008
• Over 90,000 affected, over
4,000 killed
• Began following onset of
seasonal rains
• Vulnerability & exposure
increased risk
Source: IPCC (2012)
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Health risks of
extreme weather
& climate events
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Direct public health impacts from
extreme weather & climate events
• Morbidity
• Mortality
₋
Both are observable & attributable to the physical
impacts of the event
• Mental health impacts (Post Traumatic Stress
Disorder-PTSD, depression)
−
−
−
Delayed onset & recognition can lead to impacts being
missed in an event summary
Potential to adversely affect productivity
Potential for severe health & quality of life impacts.
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Indirect public health impacts from
extreme weather & climate events
• Can be less observable
• Can take time to develop, such as infectious
disease outbreaks
• May reflect a loss of access to critical
resources: clean water, shelter
• Can result from disruption to routines
– Restricted access to, or supply of, medicine,
caregivers, medical facilities
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Climate change & health risks of
future extreme weather events
Increases in health risk may or may not result
from future extreme weather events in a
changing climate.
•Single events could have a minimal or significant health
impacts
•Socio-demographic changes in population location, size,
health, & wealth can be as significant as climate change in
altering future risks
•Adaptation, in the form of hazard planning, preparation &
response, will play a critical role in determining the
magnitude of future health risks from extreme weather
events
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Disaster risk
management
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Effective risk management & adaptation are
tailored to local & regional needs &
circumstances
• Changes in climate
extremes vary across
regions
• Each region has
unique vulnerabilities
& exposure to
hazards
• Effective risk management & adaptation address the
factors contributing to exposure & vulnerability.
Source: IPCC (2012)
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Goals for extreme weather event
notification & response plans
• Improve public understanding of the
magnitude & severity of the risks involved
• Develop plans for reducing exposure to the
events
• Prepare response plans with clearly defined
goals & responsibilities
– Include planning for indirect health impacts - they
can be significant.
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Goals for extreme weather event
notification & response plans
• Coordinate health system responses with
national disaster risk management committee
• Develop hypothetical scenarios & practice
• Draw on past experience
• Be open to outside assistance that has the
potential to improve public health
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What we covered in Module 6
Health risks
Worldwide
Extreme
Sources of
from extreme
trends in
weather in Asia
vulnerability
weather
hazards
Pacific
Public health
Disaster risk
risks
management
6
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Learning from Module 6
• Extreme weather events already present
a significant health risk to countries in
South East Asia & the Western Pacific
• Climate change is increasing the
frequency and/or severity of many extreme
weather & climate events, such as storms,
flooding & wildfires
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Learning from Module 6
• How the health risks of extreme events
could change with climate change is
uncertain
₋ Changes in factors other than climate change will be
critical in determining the nature & extent of future
risks.
• However, uncertainty is not a reason to
not take action
• Effective preparation can significantly
reduce current & future risks under a
changing climate.
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What action will you
take in your work,
given what you learnt
in Module 6?
Coming up next…
Module 15:
Disaster risk management
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