Transcript Global Climate Change

Global Climate Change
Past, Present and Future
Review: Part I- Weather
and Climate
Weather vs. Climate
Atmosphere / Geosphere / Hydrosphere /
Biosphere
Solar Radiation
Uneven Heating of Earth’s Surface and
Specific Heat
Rotation of Earth on its Axis
Angle of Insolation
Proximity to Large Bodies of Water
Coriolis Effect
Thermohaline Conveyor
Southern Oscillation (ENSO/LNSO)
Greenhouse Effect / Greenhouse Gases
Albedo Effect
Volcanic Activity
Waste products of Animals / Decomposition
Vegetation – Carbon Sinks and Evaporation
Rate
Let’s take a look at a history
of how we have looked at
climate change
Global Climate Change
“The Past”
ICE HOUSE
or
HOT HOUSE???
During the last 2 billion years,
the Earth's climate has
alternated between a frigid
"Ice House", like today's world,
and a steaming "Hot House",
like the world of the dinosaurs.
This chart shows how global
climate has changed through
time.
Did you ever hear the story of
Goldilocks and the Three Bears?
Papa’s Porridge
was too hot
Mama’s was too
cold
but baby bear’s was
juuust right…
Our Climate Works A Lot Like Goldilocks
Very Specific Preferences….
Goldilocks Principle
Too many greenhouse gases,
the Earth gets too hot.
The Earth gets too hot, we die
Too few greenhouse gases, the
Earth gets too cold
The Earth’s too cold, we die
In other words, the earth’s
climate has to be “juuuuust
riiight” in order for life (as we
know it) to continue to exist
Snowball Earth Theory
controversial hypothesis that the Earth
underwent a worldwide glaciations, when
even tropical regions became ice covered
Temps dropped to -50 °C
All the oceans froze, and glacial
conditions persisted for 10 million years
or more perhaps as many as four times
Occurred between approx 750 and 580
million years ago
Large concentration of equatorial land masses
Albedo Effect - Ice reflects heat, oceans absorb
heat
Lack of rain disrupted carbon cycle, greenhouse
gases dropped dramatically
SNOWBALL EARTH
– Reversed by volcanic
activity CO2 Increase
– Sea ice shrinks, increasing
temperature
– Earth began warming and life
“exploded” in diversity
250 MYA – suddenly earth’s
temp dramatically increases
and 95% of all species on
earth are wiped out.
Greatest mass extinction
ever.
– Dino flatulence  VIDEO
Earth’s Primitive Atmosphere
Earth’s Primitive Volcanoes expelled vast amounts of CO2 into
the atmosphere
The atmosphere began to heat up tremendously as the gases
trapped the sun’s radiation
Simple living organisms (bacteria, algae) evolved and
incorporated CO2 into their life molecules (basis for organic
chemistry- carbs, nucleic acids, amino acids, lipids all require
carbon and oxygen)
Organisms die and are buried deep beneath the earth,
“sinking” CO2 beneath the ground for millions of years
Cooler climate evolves without all of the CO2
Complex life evolves
Complex life digs up dead organisms, burns them and
releases CO2 back into the atmosphere, thus creating freaky
hot conditions and global temperatures like that of Primitive
Earth. VOILA!!
Turning Back Time-
Mimicking Earth’s Early Inhospitable
Environments
Earth’s levels of CO2 have not been this
high since roughly 250,000,000 years ago!
Levels are rapidly increasing as we spew
the CO2 that has been stored underground
(in dead organisms) back into the
atmosphere
At the present rates, temperatures could
climb to what they were during the most
severe mass extinctions
Global Climate Change
“The Present”
Rising Global Average
Temperatures
Global average surface temperature increased over the last 100
years by about 1.1 degrees Fahrenheit. (0.6 Celsius)
There is at least a 90 percent chance that the 1990s was the
warmest decade for the planet, since 1861 and the beginning of
instrumental records
There is strong evidence that most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.
2006 had an annual average temperature of 55°F in the United
States, which is 2.2°F (1.2°C) above the 20th Century mean.
Each of the last ten years (1998-2008) has earned a spot in the
rankings of the 25 warmest years on record.
2007 tied with 1998 as the second warmest year in a century,
behind 2006, the warmest year in the century.
Rising
Concentrations Of
Greenhouse Gases
• Up until the last two hundred years,
atmospheric CO2 concentrations had
stayed between 265 parts per million (ppm) and 280 ppm
• according to analyses of gases obtained from ice cores that reflect
the past 10,000 years.
• Atmospheric CO2 concentration at the beginning of the 21st Century is
approximately 365 ppm.
• Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous
oxide have increased since 1750:
• CO2 - 31 %
• CH4 – 151 %
• N2O – 17%
• Humans added more than 270 billion metric tons of carbon to the
atmosphere since the 1800’s.
• About three-quarters of human emissions of CO2 to the global
atmosphere during the past 20 years is due to fossil fuel burning.
Current Evidence Of Climate Change
Sea level is rising.
During the 20th century, it is estimated that sea level
rose about 15 cm (6 inches)
due to melting glaciers and expansion of warmer
seawater.
It could rise much more than that in the next 100 years.
Every 1 degree C increase =
100 ft. of beach gone.
Arctic sea ice is melting.
The summer thickness of sea ice is about
half of what it was in 1950. This is causing
the Arctic to warm up faster. (positive
feedback).
Fresh cold water floods into the
thermohaline conveyor, traps warmest
water in tropics, leading to drought in other
regions
Glaciers and permafrost are
melting
Over the past 100 years, mountain glaciers
in all areas of the world have shrunk and so
has the amount of permafrost in the Arctic.
Greenland's ice sheet is melting faster too.
These reserves of fresh water Damages our
water supply in times of drought!!
Changing Glaciers VIDEO
The ocean is warming.
Warmer waters in the shallow oceans make coral reefs less
healthy.
Loss of 60 percent of tropical corals is threatening barrier
reefs.
Coral Bleaching: About a quarter of the world's coral reefs
have been “bleached” in the last few decades.
Reefs lose their healthy green color and die because the
symbiotic algae cant survive the heat.
More rain
causes
flooding.
Warmer temperatures have caused more intense rainfall in
some places.
This can cause rivers, storm drains, streams and reservoirs to
overflow in rainiest seasons
Washes away soil and carries ground contaminants into major
watersupplies
Flooding is a problem, especially in the higher latitudes.
Extreme drought is
increasing
While some areas experience
more rain and flooding, Higher
temperatures cause a higher rate
of evaporation and more droughts
in other areas of the world
Most effected: inland regions at
lower-middle latitudes
Inability to provide fresh drinking
water or water for irrigation
Strict rationing
– Reservoir, Georgia (2008)
Ecosystems are changing.
Ecosystems
are changing.
As temperatures warm, animals and plants may either look for a cooler place
to live or die.
Vulnerable species include many endangered species, coral and animals of
the reefs, and polar animals.
Warming has also caused changes in the timing of spring rain events and the
alter the length of the growing season of naturally occurring plants.
– Plants that have grown in one region for a long time are no longer suitable
and are replaced by other species of plants and animals that feed on them
If animals cannot migrate, they are left to starve
For humans, this drives the price of food crops up as supply drops.
Hurricanes have changed in
frequency and strength.
Recipe for a hurricane:
Hurricanes have changed in
frequency and strength.
Picture of Hurricane Elana over the Gulf of Mexico taken from orbit. (Image courtesy of NASA)
Hurricanes have changed in
frequency and strength.
There is evidence that the number of intense hurricanes has
increased in the Atlantic since 1970.
Category 5 storms were only theoretical until the past 30 years
Will there be a category 6?
Scientists continue to study whether climate is the cause.
Picture of Hurricane Elana over the Gulf of Mexico taken from orbit. (Image courtesy of NASA)
Heat waves more
frequent.
Heat waves have become increasingly more frequent and are
lasting longer
It is likely that heat waves will become more common in more
areas of the world.
In 2003, 35,000 people died in Europe due to a series of severe
heatwaves.
In 2005, 14000 people died in France in a single heatwave
– Outdated architecture was designed for climate from LIA Period
Elderly, young, sick and poor are most endangered
.
Seawater is becoming more acidic.
When carbon dioxide, a greenhouse
gas, gets into the oceans, it makes
the water more acidic.
– Carbonic Acid
Acidity disturbs balance of entire
marine ecosystems.
– impact coral reefs, such as all reef
species
– collapsing our fishing industries
– decimating marine food web from
the bottom-up
(so long, Nemo and Dory),
dolphins, manatees, sharks,
tuna, salmon, whales…
How Do We Know that
Temperatures are Rising?
1. Temperature/Climate data measurements Compare
data recorded in recent centuries
– Farmers almanacs, Royal scribes
– World metrological data from the past century
– Very limited timeline
2. Arctic Ice Cores Compare the ratio of CO2 to O2 and
greenhouse gases back tens of thousands of years
3. Ocean Sediment Cores: Compare the ratio of the tiny
warm-water vs. cold-water marine microorganisms
buried beneath the ocean sediment (forams, coccoliths)
4. Tree Ring Analysis: Compare the size of rings to
determine particularly dry or cold seasons. Older trees
carry more information
Monitoring Sea level Change
Oceans can store up to 80% of solar
radiation in the form of heat (heat “sink”)
Ice sheets are melting rapidly
Changing density of ocean by adding more
fresh water
Measuring sea levels yields disturbing data
VIDEO
Monitoring Climate Change
Tools to montior Climate ChangeVideo
Ice cores
http://videos.howstuffworks.com/tlc/29806understanding-antarctica-video.htm
Global Climate Change
“The Future”
What will these 6 degrees mean
for us?
Six Degrees Could Change the World
One Degree Celsius
– Arctic is ice free most of year
– Coastal flooding
– More hurricanes
– Food shortages from drought
Two Degrees Celsius
– Polar bear habitat loss/starvation
– Insect Migration
– Crop Migration
– Loss of Marine Life – Coral Reefs
Extinct (canary in the coal mine)
Three Degrees Celsius
– No arctic ice
– Disappearing snow caps
– More el nino patterns
– Amazon withers
– Heat wave fatalities
Four Degrees Celsius
– Oceans rise
– Glaciers gone
– Disappearing water supply
– Major cities/countries washed
away
Five Degrees Celsius
– Aquifers dry up / snow pack
disappears
– Cities collapse
– Climate refugees
– Poorest suffer most
Six Degrees Celsius
– Mass extinctions
– Algae dies off
– Severe desertification
– “Doomsday Scenario”
But…..
… it is projected that
if we continue on the same trend
of CO2 production and
consumption,
global temperatures
could increase by
5 t0 10 degrees Celsius
by the year 2100.
What could add to this huge
5 degree jump?
1. Warming can be further
accelerated by the release of
Methane Hydrates
Methane molecule trapped or “frozen” in a net of water molecules
One molecule of methane is 8x as potent as a molecule of CO2,
but considering how much methane there is, it is actually 23x more
potent than CO2)
Stored in huge pockets beneath ocean or beneath permafrost
regions (Alaska, Siberia)
– Formed when buried organic matter decayed
The flammable GHG methane is released into the atmosphere by:
1. Mining for fuel (intentional and accidental)
2. Increase in Water Temperature releasing “frozen” methane
hydrates buried beneath shallow seas
3. Carbonic acid eroding stability of sediments that cover the
methane hydrates
There’s a lot of hydrocarbon molecules
frozen in methane hydrates
if all of that if all of it were to thaw out and
enter the atmosphere we could be facing a
greenhouse effect that could be hundreds of
times worse than what scientists currently
predict
if we destabilize large amounts of frozen
methane and that enters the atmosphere,
we’re literally cooked.
The question is can we safely and
economically extract methane from these
deposits, and that’s a question that nobody
has a good answer for right now.
Release may lead to an intense positive
feedback loop
VIDEO
Global Methane hydrate
Deposits
2. A BIG CLIMATE MYSTERY:
The temperatures on Earth are increasing, so
what should be happening to the rates of
evaporation?
Evaporation should be increasing as well
the levels of evaporation of water
(pan evaporation) are actually
decreasing
Doesn’t seem to make sense…
so why is it happening?
VIDEO – GLOBAL DIMMING
Is there something hiding the “real”
effects of global warming???
As more ice melts, the earth becomes darker, absorbing more
heat
As it absorbs more heat, more evaporation occurs, leading to
more water vapor in the air (can’t become clouds, but acts as
insulating greenhouse gas)
Additional particulate pollution helps form more clouds
– Aerosols
– Jet contrails
Clouds block incoming solar radiation
– How?
– High albedo- reflect sunlight back into space
Makes effects of global warming appear less
Called “Global Dimming”
Shutting down the thermohaline
conveyor
VIDEO
Can you see how this
may present a
PROBLEM?
If we don’t clean up air, it means:
– more asthma and respiratory illnesses
Cleaning up air means:
– reducing the cloud cover and increasing the rate
of heating of earth’s surface and all that comes
along with it.
So what do we do???
(Sadly, nobody has an answer for that… )
Somehow, we must address BOTH problems
Cut back on Fossil Fuel Use
– Industry must “scrub” to remove air pollutants
– Promote public transportation
– Improve gas mileage and emissions standards on
personal vehicles
– Highly Rated Energy star appliances
Develop a non-fossil fuel-based, renewable energy
system
– Develop alternative energy economy
Windmills, hydroelectric, solar
– Revamp grid
– Hybrids/Alternative fuels
Get Creative about Greening up!
Fighting Increasing Global
Temperatures
GOAL: Decrese the Amount of
Solar Radiation Being
Absorbed by the EARTH
• Once we clean up air pollution in our
atmosphere, more solar radiation
will hit the earth and be trapped by
the greenhouse gases
• Block incoming solar radiation with a
battalion of Mirrors in Space
• Same benefits as Global Dimming
without all the asthma!
• VIDEO
Melting Glaciers & Ice
Caps
GOAL- Reflect the sunlight back to space to
prevent melting of sensitive ice shelves and
glaciers
Wrapping Greenland Video
GOAL: Combating drought in dry
Extreme
Drought
areas By MAKING IT RAIN!!!
“Cloud Seeding”
Salts and silver iodide create condensation
nuclei for cloud formation
Two Uses:
Preserving agriculture
– Currently used in Texas
2. Also to mimic the effects of the high
albedo clouds of global dimming
1.
Creating/Seeding Clouds Video
Too many GREENHOUSE
GASES and TOO LITTLE
TIME
GOAL: Remove Greenhouse Gases from
the Atmosphere
Burning fossil fuels cleanly
The Earth’s Major Carbon sinks are in danger:
Ocean Algae
Methane Hydrates
Rainforests
– Etc…
TOO MUCH CO2!!
GOAL: CARBON
CAPTURE and
STORAGE - CCS
Capture CO2 as it escapes factories
using “scrubbers”
Bury Carbon back deep under the
earth
CCS applied to a modern
conventional power plant could
reduce CO2 emissions to the
atmosphere by approximately 8090% compared to a plant without
CCS.
Downside – requires a lot of energy
to transport and bury the
VIDEO
Aaack!!! Beware the
Terrifying Methane Hydrate
Feedback
Loops!
GOAL: Capture CARBON/METHANE
to RE-USE!
Capture escaping Methane Hydrates
using complex tents
Capture seeping methane from
decomposition in Garbage Dumps
Put plastic bags over Cow’s Rumps!
(jk)
Video – Super Soil
Video – Trash to treasure
Perhaps destabilizing
Methane hydrate can be
harvested for fuel
GOAL: Grow more ALGAE to
make FUEL and ABSORB
CO2!
Algae are among the fastest
growing plants in the world
Biofuels - about 50 percent of algae
weight is lipid oil that can be used to
make biodiesel and ethanol for cars,
trucks, and airplanes.
By using “vertical ponds”, 100,000
gallons of algae oil can be produced
per year per acre, compared to
about 30 gallons per acre from corn;
50 gallons from soybeans.
Video – Algae as a Biofuel
GOAL: Save the Rainforest!
Reduce paper waste (cancel extra magazines,
buy products with less packaging,etc.)
RECYCLE RECYCLE RECYCLE- especially
aluminum and electronics (mined from bauxite
beneath fertile rainforest floor)
– Remediating Deforestation Video
Carbon Credits – Polluters can buy acreage of
rainforests to save them from being cut down
(major step from the Kyoto Protocol).
– Incentive- The US agrees to offer tax cuts, and its
becoming very popular with consumers
GOAL:
GREEN UP with
Green
Roofs!!
Reduces Urban ‘Heat Island’ Effect
Increase the moisture retention (stabilizes
temps)
Raises albedo of concrete urban landscapes
Captures excess rain water, preventing
flooding and storm drain overflow
Conserves natural resources
Increased insulation reduces need for fossil
fuel heating/cooling
Reduces outside noise pollution
Examples:
– Old fashioned sod-houses
– Newfoundland
– A shed with a garden on top
Super High-Tech
Green Roofs
Green Roofs Video
Fukuoka, Japan
Monaco
GOAL: GREEN UP with
Wildlife Corridors
Densely vegetated pathways
that cross roads or simply link
undeveloped areas
Created to allow wildlife to
safely cross roads or fields and
to prevent genetic isolation of
species
Lessens Habitat Fragmentation
Prevents auto accidents
Climate bonus - Increases
Albedo of asphalt environments
NJ was the first state to use one
over a major highway (Rt. 78)
Climate
Change can
lead to a
very
different
world than
we are
accustomed
to.
Extinction of species
Powerful Hurricanes Increase
Redistribution of Agriculture
Desertification
Increase in Forest and Brush
Fires
Loss of Fresh Drinking Water
Floods due to rising sea
levels
Environmental Refugees
A New “Little Ice Age” or even
another “Snowball Earth”?
– VIDEO
SO, DO YOUR PART TO GREEN
UP!
MONEY TALKS. Reduce what you use/buy/toss and think twice
about who you buy from
– Don’t buy products from across the globe – buying local
decreases your carbon footprint
– Support companies that buy carbon credits
– Buy biofuels (even E-85)
Its better to recycle Carbon from the atmosphere than to
dig it up
Cut back on your energy use
– smart strips to reduce phantom loads (ex your phone charger
or sleeping cable box)
– Go energy efficient when you can (high energy star rating)
– Take public transportation (esp Trains or the fancy new
Hybrid and Hydrogen buses in NY/NJ)
– recycle AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE!
DO YOUR PART TO GREEN UP!
Support legislation for Carbon
sequestering, Green Roof projects,
Wildlife Corridors in our community/ state
Small Acts count! Plant more
trees/gardens
TALK ABOUT IT- Think about how much
you’ve learned. Discuss it and help other
people understand the real deal about
climate change…. An informed citizen is a
powerful tool for change.
….and in case you’re not
freaked out enough
Milankovich Cycle
Every 100,000 or so years, the earth’s tilt
on its axis and path around the sun
change, causing periods of extreme
climate change
VIDEO – Periodic Ice Ages