Transcript EU GHG Monitoring Mechanism

EUROPEAN COMMISSION
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
EU GHG Monitoring
Mechanism
Lars Müller
European Commission
DG ENV.C.2, Brussels
André Jol
European Environment Agency
Copenhagen
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Questions to be answered:
• What is our legal basis?
• What are we doing? Who does it? And what
happens by when?
Institutional arrangements and working procedure
• What are the products?
• Where do we stand today?
Where do we expect to go?
Actual and projected progress
• European Climate Change Programme
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Legal basis
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
• UNFCCC (in future KP)
– Guidelines on National Communications and annual
inventories (FCCC/CP/1999/7, decision 3/CP.5) and
IPCC Good Practice Guidance
– Marrakech Accords and revised guidelines for
inventories, from April 2004 (FCCC/CP/2002/8,
decision 18/CP.8)
• EU
– Council Decision on GHG Monitoring (Decision
389/93/EEC as amended by decision 296/99/EC)
– (internal) guidelines
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Sharing the EC target of –8%
Spain +15%
Greece +25%
Portugal +27%
Ireland +13%
Sw eden +4%
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France 0%
Finland 0%
Luxembourg -28%
Austria -13%
Belgium -7.5%
Netherlands -6%
Denmark -21%
Italy -6.5%
United Kingdom 12.5%
Germany -21%
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.)
0
50
100
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Summary of current Monitoring
Mechanism
• Monitoring the emissions of the six Kyoto greenhouse
gases and removals by sinks,
• Annual GHG inventory reporting by MS to the
European Commission
• EC inventory is the Sum of 15 Member States
• Member States report their respective data to UNFCCC
• Implementation and annual reporting of national
programmes (including policies and measures) and
emission projections to the Commission and
• Evaluation of progress and reporting to the European
Parliament and Council by the Commission
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CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EC GHG inventory institutional
arrangements
• Member states prepare inventory according to UNFCCC
Guidelines and participate in EC Monitoring mechanism
committee, assisted by three working groups
• Working group I promotes improvement of all GHG inventory
quality aspects (transparency, consistency, comparability,
completeness, accuracy and use of good practices)
• Working group II promotes improvement of quality of reporting
on GHG emission projections (transparency, consistency,
comparability, completeness)
• Working Group III promotes implementation of EC emissions
trading scheme
• European Commission (DG ENV) responsible for submission to
UNFCCC, assisted by EEA (and European Topic Centre Air and
Climate Change, ETC/ACC) and Eurostat and JRC
• EC “National Inventory Report” follows UNFCCC Guidelines
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Austria
UK
Sweden
Belgium
CRF and NIR
Finland
Germany
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
UNFCCC
Luxembourg
Italy
Greece
EU
Denmark
France
Netherlands
Ireland
Spain
European
Commission
(ENV, ESTAT, JRC)
and EEA
Annual progress report
Parliament
Council
Portugal
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Data flow EC GHG Monitoring
Austria
UK
Sweden
Belgium
CRF and NIR
Finland
Germany
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
UNFCCC
Luxembourg
Italy
Greece
EU
Denmark
France
Netherlands
Ireland
Spain
European
Commission
(ENV, ESTAT, JRC)
and EEA
Annual progress report
Parliament
Council
Portugal
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Data flow EC GHG Monitoring
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Preparation EC inventory
1
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2
3
4
5
6
MS submission of
inventory to Commission
Initial check of submission
by Commission
Compilation and
circulation of draft EC
inventory
Submission of updated od
additional data to
commission
Submission to UNFCCC
EC internal review and
improvement of inventory
31 December
Jan
1 March
Up to 1 April
15 April
May to December
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Annual process of submission and review of MS
inventories and compilation of the EC inventory
Element
Who
When
What
1. Submission of
annual inventory by
MS to Commission
Member States
31 December
annually
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions and CO2 removals by sinks, for
the year n-1
Emissions by source and removals by sinks of the other
greenhouse gases;
Final data for the year n-2 and provisional data for the year n-1
European Commission
(incl. Eurostat),
assisted by EEA
up to 1 March
Initial checks (by EEA)
Comparison of energy data in MS IPCC Reference Approach with
Eurostat energy data (by Eurostat and MS)
3. Compilation and
circulation of draft EC
inventory
European Commission
(incl. Eurostat),
assisted by EEA
1 March
Draft EC inventory (by EEA), based on MS inventories and
additional information where needed
Circulation of the draft EC inventory on 1 March
4. Submission of
updated or additional
data by MS to
Commission
5. Final annual EC
inventory to UNFCCC
Member States
up to 1 April
Updated or additional data submitted by MS 3)
European Commission
(incl. Eurostat),
assisted by EEA
15 April
Submission to UNFCCC of the final annual EC inventory. This
inventory will also be used to evaluate progress as part of the
Monitoring Mechanism
6. Additional review of
MS submissions and
EC inventory
European Commission
(incl. Eurostat),
assisted by EEA
June to
December
Additional review aimed at improving the next annual MS and EC
inventories
In November Eurostat makes available to MS energy balance data
(1990 to inventory year)
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2. Initial check of MS
submissions
2)
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1. Drafting of technical reports on
15 April until Emission/removal trends for key source sectors at EU
Trends in emissions / projections and 15 July
level and also for each MS./ information on policies
policies and measures
and measures, their effects, and the projected
emissions/removals at EU level and for each MS
2. Drafting of Commission Monitoring 15 June until Evaluation of actual and projected progress, based on
Mechanism progress report
5 Sept.
MS information. Extended analyses, comparison with
Community wide projections; Community policies and
measures based on first draft EEA technical reports
3. Circulation of final draft of
15 July
Final draft of technical reports circulated to Member
technical reports on GHG emission
States on 15 July. Drafting of the Commission’s
(and sinks) trends and on projections
progress report continues in parallel to technical
and policies and measures
review of the EEA technical reports.
4. Review by MS of (EEA) technical
15 July until Member States checking data and the various
reports. Comments by MS.
29 August
analyses in the reports.
5. Revision of (EEA) technical reports 30 Aug. until Revision of EEA technical reports according to Member
5 Sept.
States comments
6. Draft Circulation to MS /
5 September Evaluation of actual and projected progress, based on
Committee Members
MS and Community policies and measures.
7. Monitoring Mechanism committee 15 Sept.
Inclusion of conclusions and comments by Member
decision on draft progress report
States; adoption of draft Commission progress report
8. Adoption by European Com. and
Until end of Final Commission progress report, formal adoption
submission to Parliament and Council November
translation and publication
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Annual procedure for the EU
Progress Assessment
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
EC GHG inventory improvement
• Eurostat improvement project for national energy balances and
annual estimation of EC CO2 emissions (IPCC Reference
Approach)
• JRC compares national estimates for carbon sinks (focus on
forests) and coordinates a project for improving GHG emissions
from agriculture (focus on N2O from soils)
• QA/QC of EC inventory depends on QA/QC systems for
national GHG inventories
• Data gap filling to achieve complete EC inventory is limited to
few countries
• Minor differences between EC and Member States’ inventories,
which are further being reduced through the UNFCCC review
process (centralised review of EC inventory, Sep. 2002)
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CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
• CO-decision Procedure
• Basic requirements in decision - further technical details in
“implementing provisions” to be adopted
• Establishment of EC greenhouse gas inventory system (KP Art. 5.1)
• Internal procedures for the review process and adjustments (KP Art.
5.2 and Art. 8)
• Reporting on accounting of assigned amounts and national registries
(KP Art. 7.1, 7.2 and 7.4)
• Supplementary information to be incorporated in the periodic
communications to the UNFCCC
• Policies and measures and Projections
• details yet to be decided (ongoing procedure in Council and
Parliament)
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
New Monitoring decision (Proposal COM(2003) 51 final)
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EU greenhouse gas emissions in relation to
the Kyoto target (excl. LUCF)
Index (base year = 100)
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
120
110
101,6
97,7
100
90
92,0
80
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Greenhouse gas emissions
Target path 2010
GHG target 2010
CO2 emissions
2010
2012
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1)
MEMBER STATE
Austria
Belgium
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Denmark
2)
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
United Kingdom
EU-15
Base year
(million tonnes)
2001
(million tonnes)
Change
2000–2001
(%)
Change base
year–2001
(%)
Targets 2008–12
under Kyoto Protocol
and "EU burden
sharing"
(%)
78,3
85,9
4,8%
9,6%
-13,0%
141,2
150,2
0,2%
6,3%
-7,5%
69,5
69,4
1,8% -0,2% (-10,7%)
-21,0%
77,2
558,4
1216,2
107,0
80,9
560,8
993,5
132,2
7,3%
0,5%
1,2%
1,9%
4,7%
0,4%
-18,3%
23,5%
0,0%
0,0%
-21,0%
25,0%
53,4
509,3
10,9
211,1
61,4
289,9
72,9
747,2
70,0
545,4
6,1
219,7
83,8
382,8
70,5
657,2
2,7%
0,3%
1,3%
1,3%
1,9%
-1,1%
2,2%
1,3%
31,1%
7,1%
-44,2%
4,1%
36,4%
32,1%
-3,3%
-12,0%
13,0%
-6,5%
-28,0%
-6,0%
27,0%
15,0%
4,0%
-12,5%
4204,0
4108,3
1,0%
-2,3%
-8,0%
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Greenhouse gas emission trends and Kyoto
Protocol targets for 2008-2012
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Greenhouse gas emission targets and
changes from base year to 2001
Spain
Greece
Portugal
GHG targets
Ireland
Change base year 2001
Sw eden
France
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Finland
Luxembourg
Austria
Belgium
Netherlands
Denmark
Italy
United Kingdom
Germany
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2-eq.)
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140
Greenhouse gas emissions
130
Target path 2010
Index (base year = 100)
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
120
GHG target 2010
CO2 emissions
110
100
90
85,8
81,7
80
79,0
70
60
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
MS Example: Germany, GHG and CO2 emissions
in relation to the Kyoto target (excl. LUCF)
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
MS Example: UK, GHG and CO2 emissions in
relation to the Kyoto target (excl. LUCF)
140
Greenhouse gas emissions
130
Target path 2010
GHG target 2010
Index (base year = 100)
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
120
CO2 emissions
110
100
95,3
90
88,0
87,5
80
70
60
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
MS Example: Spain, GHG and CO2 emissions in
relation to the Kyoto target (excl. LUCF)
140
135,1
132,1
Index (base year = 100)
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
130
120
115,0
110
100
90
Greenhouse gas emissions
80
Target path 2010
GHG target 2010
70
CO2 emissions
60
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EC key sources covering 90% of emissions
Solid Waste Disposal on Land
(CH4)
2%
Mineral Products (CO2)
3%
Remainder
10%
Energy Industries (CO2)
27%
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Enteric Fermentation (CH4)
3%
Agricultural Soils (N2O)
5%
Manufacturing Industries
(CO2)
14%
Other Sectors (CO2)
16%
Transport (CO2)
20%
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
EC CO2 emissions from energy industries
compared with electricity consumption
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CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EC CO2 emissions from transport, compared
with road freight transport development
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EC CO2 emissions from transport, compared
with road passenger transport development
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EC Member States CO2 emissions from
transport
Ireland
120%
Portugal
78%
Luxembourg
73%
Spain
55%
Austria
48%
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Greece
24%
Belgium
23%
Italy
23%
Netherlands
22%
EU15
20%
France
18%
Denmark
16%
Germany
10%
Sweden
8%
United Kingdom
Finland
-40%
-20%
5%
1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
% change 90-01
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
EC CO2 emissions from manufacturing
industries compared with gross value added
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CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EC CH4 emissions from waste compared with
waste disposal on land
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EC GHG projections for 2010,
information basis
• Information provided to the European Commission
until mid 2002 and reported in December 2002
(Commission Communication)
• Third national communication for Au, Be, Fi, Fr, Nl,
Sp, Sw, UK
• Additional information under the EU GHG Monitoring
mechanism for Be, Dk, Fi, Fr, Ge, Gr, Ir, It, Nl, Pt, Sw,
UK
• All projections for 2010 are excluding carbon sinks and
only include domestic policies and measures (no
inclusion of Kyoto mechanisms)
• Updated information being incorporated in
Commission communication due end of 2003
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100
With measures
Actual emissions
Target –8%
90
2010
2005
2000
80
1995
With additional
measures
1990
GHG emissions (Base year = 100)
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
110
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EC GHG emission projection 2010 (based on
national projections)
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Greenhouse gas emission projections and
Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008-2012
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Base year
from
projection
(MtCO2)
Base year
from
inventories
(2002)
(MtCO2)
EU
Burden
sharing
Commitment
implied by
burden
sharing
(MtCO2)
Scenario with Scenario with
existing p&ms existing p&ms
in 2010
(% change in
(MtCO2)
2010)
Gap
(MtCO2)
Gap
(in % of
1990)
Austria
77.2
77.4
-13.0%
-10.0
8.9
11.5%
-18.9
-24.5%
Belgium
145.0
143.1
-7.5%
-10.9
22.4
15.4%
-33.3
-22.9%
Denmark
76.0
69.4
-21.0%
-16.0
-13.4
-17.6%
-2.6
-3.4%
Finland
77.1
77.1
0,0%
0.0
12.8
16.6%
-12.,8
-16.6%
France
545.0
551.8
0.0%
0.0
49.3
9.0%
-49.3
-9.0%
1225.0
1222.8
-21.0%
-257.2
-412.9
-33.7%
+155.6
+12.7%
Greece
99.3
104.8
25.0%
24.8
28.7
28.9%
-3.9
-3.9%
Ireland
53.8
53.4
13.0%
7.0
21.4
39.8%
-14.4
-26.8%
543.0
522.1
-6.5%
-35.3
44.0
8.1%
-79.3
-14.6%
Luxembourg
12.4
10.8
-28.0%
-3.5
-2.8
-22.9%
-0.6
-5.1%
Netherlands
212.0
210.3
-6.0%
-12.7
13.0
6.1%
-25.7
-12.1%
64.8
65.1
27.0%
17.5
37.6
58.1%
-20.1
-31.1%
207.0
286.4
15.0%
31.1
100.0
48.3%
-69.0
-33.3%
70.4
70.6
4.0%
2.8
0,5
0.7%
+2.3
+3.3%
744.7
742.5
-12.5%
-93.1
-103.8
-13.9%
+10.7
+1.4%
4152.6
4207.6
-8.0%
-355.8
-194.2
-4.7%
-161.6
-3.3%
Germany
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
UK
Total EC
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
MS Example: UK,
GHG emission projection 2010
110
100
90
80
2010
2005
2000
1995
70
1990
GHG emissions (base year = 100)
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
120
United Kingdom Trends
United Kingdom With additional measures projections
United Kingdom With existing measures projections
United Kingdom Target
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
MS Example: Portugal,
GHG emission projection 2010
160
140
130
120
110
Portugal Trends
2010
2005
2000
1995
100
1990
GHG emissions (base year = 100)
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
150
Portugal Target
Portugal With existing measures projections
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• National programmes
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
– Reported to UNFCCC and European Commission
– National responsibility
• EU common and coordinated policies and
measures
– Central part of EU climate strategy to
complement national programmes
– Often EU Directive or other legal instrument, to
be implemented by Member States
– European Climate Change Programme is key
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EU policies and measures
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
ECCP: main elements
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
• Objectives
– Identify and develop main elements of
EC strategy to meet its -8% Kyoto objective
cost effectively
– Prepare the Commission to develop legislative
and other proposals
• Major Milestones
– launch March 2000
– June 2001 : first progress report
– October 2001 : Commission Communication on ECCP
Action Plan
– May 2003 : second progress report
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• National programmes
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
– Reported to UNFCCC and European Commission
– National responsibility
• EU common and coordinated policies and
measures
– Central part of EU climate strategy to
complement national programmes
– Often EU Directive or other legal instrument, to
be implemented by Member States
– European Climate Change Programme is key
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EU policies and measures
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
ECCP Principles
Working groups
•integration
•transparency
•stakeholder consultation
•group expertise
•build consensus
-
ECCP Approach
•reduction potential
•cost-effective
•cross-sectoral
•time frame
•ancillary effects
Emissions trading
flexible mechanisms
Energy supply
Energy demand
end-use equipment
Transport
Industry
fluorinated gasses
Research
Agriculture
Sinks ag. soils
Forestry sinks
WG Reports/
P&M analysed
conclusions
ECCP steering
committee
Commission
action plan
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
ECCP: scope and organisation
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Reduction potential of GHG under costeffectiveness aspects for sectors in EU until 2010
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
(including full implementation of the ACEA Agreement)
Marginal cost
€20/tCO2 eq
Emissions
1990 or 95
Mt CO2
equivalent
Energy sector
Industry
Transport
Households
Services
Agriculture
Waste
Total
1422
Baseline
emissions for
2010 with
existing
measures
-6%
Cost-effective
potential beyond
baseline
projection for
2010
-13%
757
753
447
176
417
166
4138
-9%
31%
0%
14%
-5%
-18%
1%
-12%
-4%
-6%
-15%
-4%
-13%
-9%
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
ECCP : main results
• Total reduction potential of 40 identified measures :
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
578 -696 Mt CO2eq. = twice Kyoto ‘-8%’
• EU Measures currently “in implementation”
potential of 276 -316 Mt CO2eq. …
but need for monitoring of effectiveness and review
• measures in 2003 Commission work program :
proposals on Energy Efficiency of Products, energy services,
HFCs & Mobile Air condition, link ET - flexible mechanisms
• preparations for new measures or on-going...
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CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Measures included in Commission
2004 Work Programme
2002-
EU wide emissions trading
Link JI/CDM to ET
containment / monitoring of fluorinated gases (incl. MAC)
revision of Monitoring Decision (implement Marrakech)
renewable energy sources (Electricity / Biofuels)
energy-efficiency standards for equipment
energy demand-side management
combined heat and power generation
modal shift in transport
Transport infrastructure use & charging
Energy performance buildings
Review voluntary agreement car industr.
Energy taxation
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CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
• Update and strengthening of Commission ECCP
action plan
• transport emissions rising concern
• renewables : accelerated progress is required
• integration CC in CAP , structural funds
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
ECCP : outlook and future challenges
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
For further information you may look at:
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
www.europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climate/home_en.htm
and
themes.eea.eu.int/Environmental_issues/climate
THANK YOU !
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