Transcript Module 15_Disaster risk management

Module 15:
Disaster risk
management
Key messages in Module 15
• Southeast Asia & the Pacific are highly vulnerable to
extreme weather & climate events & disasters, with
a history of significant impacts on humans & society
• Disaster risk management is a structured process
for increasing resilience
• International process through UN International
Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction should be
followed:
– Hyogo Framework for Action
• Early warning & response systems are effective
2
Module 15 outline
Multiple
UNISDR Hyogo
Disaster risk
sources of
Framework for
management
vulnerability
Action
vs. adaptation
4
Early warning
& response
systems
3
Multiple sources of
vulnerability to
disasters in SE Asia &
the Pacific
4
Weather events
in the Philippines
2009
Gray = normal monthly
rainfall
Black = 24 hour rainfall
(mm)
Source: Yumul et al. (2013)
5
Bangladesh & disasters
Source: World Bank (2010)
6
Estimated relative frequency of health
effects associated with cyclones
Crush injury
Head injury
Asphyxiation
Isolated bone injury
Skin soft tissue injury
Burns
++
+
+
+
+
Starvation
+
++
+
+
Tetanus
+
Wound infections
+
+
Drowning
Asthma / emphysema
Psychological illness
Source: Keim (2006) 7
Mortality from
floods & storms in
Bangladesh
Source: World Bank (2010)
8
Multiple climate hazard map of SE Asia
Source: Yusuf & Francisco (2009) 9
Multiple climate hazard map of SE Asia
Source: Yusuf & Francisco (2009)
10
Climate change vulnerability map of SE Asia
Source: Yusuf & Francisco (2009)
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Example of interaction of development
patterns & climate variability: Jakarta
Source: World Bank (2010)
12
Land use change in Jakarta, 1970, 1980,
1990 & 2000
Area (Ha) of Jakarta affected by flooding
1980
1996
2002
2007
770
2,259
16,778
23,832
Source: World Bank (2011) 13
Fifteen years of urbanization in Jakarta,
1994 vs. 2009
Source: Hahm & Fisher (2010) 14
Jakarta slum areas affected by flooding
Source: World Bank (2011)
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The UNISDR
Hyogo
Framework for
Action
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Hyogo Framework for Action
(HFA) 2005-2015
Strategic goals for disaster risk management
• More effective integration of disaster risk into
sustainable development policies, planning &
programming at all levels
• Develop & strengthen institutions, mechanisms, &
capabilities to build resilience to hazards
• Systematic incorporation of DRM approaches into
the implementation of emergency preparedness,
response & recovery programs
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Priorities for the HFA
1. Ensure that DRM is a national & local priority
with a strong institutional basis for
implementation
2. Identify, assess & monitor disaster risks &
enhance early warning
3. Use knowledge, innovation & education to build
a culture of safety & resilience at all levels
4. Reduce the underlying risk factors
5. Strengthen disaster preparedness
for effective response at all levels
18
Disaster risk
management vs. climate
change adaptation
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Key components of disaster risk
management
• Identification & understanding of risk
• Reduction of underlying risk factors
• Disaster preparedness & emergency
management
• Institutional capacities & financial mechanisms
• Cross cutting issues
– Effective communication
– Multi-level linkage
– Exchange & learning
20
Stakeholders
in the Navua
local level risk
management
project, Fiji
Source: Gero
et al. (2011) 21
Climate change adaptation vs.
disaster risk reduction
Source: Gero et al. (2011)
22
4
Early warning &
response systems
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Early warning systems
• Improved weather forecasting offers the opportunity
to develop early warning systems for weather-based
events
– Use of early warning systems can save lives
• The system should be developed with all relevant
stakeholders to ensure that the issues of greatest
concern are addressed
• A basic requirement is that the community or region
has sufficient public health & social infrastructure to
undertake its design & implementation
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Effective early warning systems
• Multiple disciplines are required to develop accurate,
effective & efficient population- & location-specific
early warning systems
• Provide warning in sufficient time for action
• Are affordable
– Require minimal skill & training to operate &
maintain
• Give minimal false positive or negative responses
• Are robust, reproducible & verifiable
• Can be easily modified to address a changing climate
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Principal components of an EWS
1. Identification & forecasting of weather
conditions
2. Prediction of possible health outcomes
3. Effective & timely response plan
4. Ongoing monitoring & evaluation of the
system & its components
5. Communication plan
Source: IFRC (2012) 26
1. Identification & forecasting of
weather conditions
2. Prediction of possible health
outcomes
3. Effective & timely response plan
4. Ongoing monitoring & evaluation
of the system & its components
5. Communication plan
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Development & use of climate
information
• Data
– Spatial & temporal coverage of critical weather
variables
• Methods
– Simple correlation, trend analysis etc.
• Acceptability / credibility
– Timely, relevant, compatible with existing decisionmaking protocols, accessible
• Context
– Early warning systems are not contingent on climate
information alone
28
Predicted vs. observed rainfall, Micronesia
& American Samoa
Source: School of Ocean & Earth Science & Technology Hawaii (2009)
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Components of a response plan
• Where the response plan will be implemented
• When interventions will be implemented,
including thresholds for action
• What interventions will be implemented
• How the response plan will be implemented
• To whom the interventions will be
communicated
Source: Ebi & Schmier (2005)
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Monitoring & evaluation
Need to establish programs to answer these
questions (at a minimum):
• What are the chances that the forecast will be
wrong?
• What are the chances of sounding a false alarm,
thereby wasting resources & undermining public
trust?
• Is the system as responsive as needed? How many
lives could have been saved if the system response
was faster?
• Is the system cost-effective?
Source: Ebi & Schmier (2005)
31
Climate disaster resilience levels in 10
zones in Dhaka
Source: Parvin & Shaw (2011)
32
Structure of mental health services in
Bangladesh
Source: Nahar et al. (2014) 33
Pre- & post-disaster government spending:
Nepal & Indonesia
Source: World Bank (2011) 34
International
Federation of the
Red Cross/Red
Crescent
Societies (IFRC)
35
Source: IFRC (2012)
36
What we covered in Module 15
Multiple
UNISDR Hyogo
sources of
Framework for
vulnerability
Action
4
Disaster risk
Early warning
management vs
& response
adaptation
systems
37
Learning from Module 15
• Southeast Asia & the Pacific are highly vulnerable
to extreme weather & climate events & disasters,
with a history of significant impacts on humans &
society
• Disaster risk management is a structured process
for increasing resilience
• International process through UN International
Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction is followed
– Hyogo Framework for Action
• Early warning & response systems are effective
38
What action will you
take in your work,
given what you learnt
in Module 15?
Coming up next…
Panel discussion
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